Bills vs. Chiefs Picks & Predictions for NFL DFS in AFC Championship

The AFC Championship game is one all too familiar in the NFL Playoffs lately, as the Bills and Chiefs face off in Arrowhead Stadium for a trip to the 2025 Super Bowl. This marks the fourth game between these two in the Playoffs in the last five seasons — with the Chiefs boasting a perfect 3-0 record in the previous Playoff matchups. 

Below, we’ve got AFC Championship Round picks and predictions for the Bills vs. Chiefs showdown for NFL DFS, including three picks for PrizePicks, plus a full game prediction.

We’ll highlight some of the best picks for Bills vs. Chiefs and a touchdown scorer prediction to boost your payout for what’s set to be an instant classic matchup.

Don’t forget to head to the PrizePicks NFL board, lock in your Conference Championship picks by choosing more or less on player projections, and build your Lineup to get in on the real money NFL action. Combine the three picks below to reach a 5.5x payout on PrizePicks, and use our free Lineup for the AFC Championship to reach even higher payouts.

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Bills vs. Chiefs Picks for 2025 AFC Championship

Here are three of the top Bills vs. Chiefs picks in the AFC Championship for NFL DFS on PrizePicks, plus a full game prediction.

• Bills vs. Chiefs: AFC Championship Preview & Where to Watch
• Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco 31.5 Rush Yards — Less
• Chiefs TE Travis Kelce 70.5 Receiving Yards — More
• TD Scorer Prediction: Bills RB James Cook (Demon)
• Score Prediction: Bills 28, Chiefs 24

🧠 Dive deep on Conference Championships in the NFL DFS Cheat Sheet

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Bills vs. Chiefs: Preview & Where to Watch AFC Championship

Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff

Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

TV: CBS, Paramount+ (streaming)

It looked like both teams would coast comfortably to the AFC Championship matchup, but the Ravens ultimately made it a close one in Buffalo. That could however prove to be the final bid of confidence the team needs after falling early in the season 10-35 to the Ravens, and having already bested the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. 

Is this the year the Bills can finally flip the script? Bills QB Josh Allen is 4-1 against a Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs team, yet 0-3 in the Playoffs against him when it matters most.

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco 31.5 Rush Yards  — Less

Since returning from injury, Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco has not surpassed a 46% snap share in a game, including last week against the Texans, where he had only five rushed for 18 yards in a win. 

This is in stark contrast to last year’s playoffs, where he consistently was over 70% of the offensive snaps, and clearly the Chiefs’ RB1. What was once Pacheco’s backfield, now appears to belong to RB Kareem Hunt, who has outpaced him in both carries and snaps on offense for three straight games.

Pacheco has gone more than this rushing yards projection in just two of his six games since he returned, with four-straight games falling short. He’s also hit season lows in rushing attempts in back-to-back outings — both wins. With Buffalo ranking 12th in rushing yards allowed per game and a healthy LB corps, there’s little reason to expect Pacheco to reclaim his role as the lead back here, as Hunt has proved to be more reliable and earned the coaching staff’s trust.

Pacheco just simply has not regained his old form; 57% of his 54 carries since his return have been limited to 3 yards or less. The Chiefs have adjusted accordingly, dialing his workload back, and it’s hard to imagine him having any explosive rushed against Buffalo, which should keep him less than this rushing number.

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Chiefs TE Travis Kelce 70.5 Receiving Yards — More

This guy flips a switch when it comes to the postseason, and this year it feels as though he needs to more than ever before. It’s no surprise Travis Kelce’s season high in yards was set last week at 117; when the Chiefs needed to win, Kelce steps up.

Kelce has now cashed this projection in 14-straight Playoff games, dating back to early 2021. He is QB Patrick Mahomes’ favorite option, and the passing game runs through Kelce. Across his 14 straight postseason game tear, he has posted an average of 99 yards per game.

While this was the fewest receiving yards Kelce has had across a season in his entire NFL career, he still led the Chiefs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. The WR room on this team is the most uncertain Mahomes has had rolling into the playoffs, though it’s finally healthy, and Kelce is a safe pair of hands. 

Any of the concerns his slump would follow him into the playoffs were put to bed against the Texans, and he’ll now look for 15 straight of 70+ in the Playoffs against a Bills that ranks middle of the pack in TE yards allowed. 

TD Scorer Prediction: Bills RB James Cook (Demon)

Across the entire season, Bills RB James Cook finished second in points scored per game for all RBs, WRs, and TEs at 6.8 points. In 16 games, he scored 18 touchdowns, and now we can get him as a Demon projection, which boosts your PrizePicks payout. The cherry on top? He has seen more carries in his two Playoff games than in any two-week span all season long.

While QB Josh Allen will vulture some rushing touchdowns, Cook has still seen elite red-zone usage — fourth-most red-zone TDs in league — and even found himself 5 touchdowns from further out. The Bills score the second-most points in the league, so it’s no surprise that Cook has the second most points per game in the league for a skill player. 

🏈 Find more TD Scorer Predictions for Bills vs. Chiefs

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Through the season, Cook finding paydirt has also been virtually matchup proof. Yes, the Chiefs are formidable against the run, allowing .8 rush TDs a game (12th), but Cook has scored against the best. 

Throughout the season, when facing a defense that ranked top five in least rushing TDs allowed, he found the end zone against them all: the third-ranked Broncos, fourth-ranked Texans, and the fifth-ranked Seahawks. The 12th-ranked Chiefs shouldn’t be any problem, just as they weren’t in their last matchup where he posted two touchdowns on them.

Note: Demon picks add a payout boost to your lineup on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.

AFC Championship Game Prediction: Bills 28, Chiefs 24

Most things about the Bills on paper are more impressive than the Chiefs. The Bills had a margin of victory of 157 points this season compared to the Chiefs 97-point differential, if you exclude their last regular season game (a 38-0 loss) without starters. The Bills boast the second most points per game at 30.7, whereas the Chiefs are middle of the pack with 22.7. 

The Bills allow 21.2 points per game, with the Chiefs just slightly better at 18.9. The Bills are also led by a QB who has been putting up a MVP-caliber season in Josh Allen, while Patrick Mahomes is having arguably his worst season since he took over the reins in Kansas City.

All that to be said, the Chiefs have still been impressive this season. Yes, their wins have been close and oftentimes controversial, but in a position to potentially be the first to three-peat in the Super Bowl is no joke. I see the Chiefs playing the Bills close, just as they have played most teams close all season long, but Josh Allen playing superman and getting the job done late in a thriller. 

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Build Your Bills vs. Chiefs Lineup on PrizePicks

Whether you’re going big with a Demon pick or staying safe with the Goblins, there’s no better way to add to the excitement the Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship Sunday Night Football and Chiefs vs. Bills than building your ideal PrizePicks Lineup.  

It’s the easiest way to get real money action on the Conference Championship games.

Just pick more or less on two or more player projections like the ones above, set your Lineup, and lock in for the Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship — one of the season’s most anticipated games. Keep coming back to the Playbook for more insights on NFL DFS all playoffs long.