Can The Spurs Make the Play-In Tournament without Wembanyama?

The Spurs’ playoff hopes took a major hit when center Victor Wembanyama was diagnosed with a blood clot in his right shoulder, forcing the team to shut him down suddenly for the rest of the season. The team announced the news on Feb. 20, just days after he made his first All-Star appearance.

Now, San Antonio’s playoff hopes are very much in question, as they relied heavily on Wembanyama on both ends of the floor.

With Wembanyama out, where do the Spurs go from here in the 2025 season? While they are the 13th seed in the West, they are not out just yet of a potential spot in the Play-In Tournament. They have some good, young players on their roster, but things have gotten complicated without Wembanyama. 

We’ll break down what’s happening with the Spurs since the injury, and how they may fare for the rest of the 2025 season.

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What Happened to Victor Wembanyama?

On Feb.20, the Spurs announced Wembanyama would be out for the remainder of the season after being diagnosed with a blood clot in his right shoulder, shortly after he played in his first All-Star Game. 

Blood clots are a serious medical condition that require immediate treatment to prevent further health complications. The Spurs had no option other than to sideline their superstar to preserve his future. In good news, he is expected to return next season and there is no concern for his long-term health.

Wembanyama was having a sensational sophomore season. The 21 year-old Frenchman was averaging 24.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals, and 3.8 blocks per game. He was also shooting 47.6% from the field and 35.2% from 3-point range, knocking down an impressive 3.1 3-pointers per game — all improvements from his rookie year. 

Can The Spurs Compete Without Wembanyama?

In the eight games played since the Wembanyama news, the Spurs have a record of 3-5. They have beaten the Suns, Grizzlies, and Nets, while losing to the Pistons, the Pelicans twice, Rockets, and Thunder. 

A player that has recently stood out for the Spurs without Wembanyama is Devin Vassell. In his three games in March, Vassell has scored 20, 15, and 37 points — in a game where he hit 8-of-11 3-pointers. Vassell will be pivotal for the Spurs offense in this final stretch of the regular season.

The Spurs also have other notable players, They recently traded for All-Star guard De’Aaron Fox last month at the deadline. Fox was only able to play five games with Wembanyama this season. In his last eight games, Fox is averaging 17.8 points, and he leads the team in usage with Wembanyama off the floor, at 25.8%. He’ll need to up his points production with Wembanyama being out. 

Before he was traded to the Spurs, Fox was averaging 25.0 points for the Kings. Similar production will be needed now that he’s the top option that has proven he can take over games with his elite speed and athleticism. 

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What's Working & Not Working For the Spurs 

In their eight games played without Wembanyama, the Spurs are ranked third in assists (31.1) per game, which means the basketball is moving around very well, and everyone is getting touches.

With a roster that includes playmakers like Fox and Paul, along with players that can put the ball in the basket like Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle, it makes sense how the team is one of the top leaders in that department. They rank 16th in points per game at 115.5 and 13th in 3-pointers made at 13.8 made since Wembanyama went out.

The team is also fifth in the league in steals (9.8) over that span, which shows even without their franchise player, who’s arguably the best defender in the league, the team is actively getting wins on that end of the floor.

They’ve been about average in guarding the 3-point line, ranking 13th in opponent 3-pointers made at 13.0 per game. 

What hasn’t been working much for the Spurs without Wembanyama is their inability to consistently guard opposing teams. They are ranked 22nd in the league opponent’s points per game, where they give up 120.3 points per game, which leads to them having a 22nd ranked defensive rating of 118.0. 

They are also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league without their star center, ranking 25th in overall rebounds and dropping to 29th in defensive rebounding percentage (65.3%), leading to 16.9 points per game off second chances for opponents.

It’s safe to say if the Spurs want to gain more wins in the final month and a half of regular season play, the defense and rebounding will need to improve. Unfortunately, the team is playing journeyman center Bismack Biyombo at center.

Do Spurs Have a Shot of Making The  Play-In Tournament?

With a current record of 26-34, the Spurs are 13th in the Western Conference standings. The team is 3.5 games behind the  0th-seeded Mavericks, who hold the final play-in seed at the moment.

There are some positive ways the Spurs can look at this. The Mavericks just lost Kyrie Irving, who will be out for the season after an ACL tear. Anthony Davis is likely to just sit out the remainder of the season, as he nurses a groin injury. There’s a potential chance that the Mavericks fall in the standings, especially after everything that’s been going on with the team. 

The Suns, who are the 11th seed, have been inconsistent all season long, but they have great individual players in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. It will be challenging, but not impossible to jump them in the standings, especially since the Suns have the toughest strength of schedule left in the league.

The 12th seeded Trail Blazers are only two games in front of the Spurs. When looking at the strength of schedule for the Spurs, they are at tenth. Also a tough spot, but with the players they have on their roster who may grow into their playing time — like rookie guard Stephon Castle, the team has the capabilities to push for a spot in the Play-In Tournament.

If they fall out of contention without Wembanyama, it may be in their best interest to look to the future get young players like Castle, Justin Champagnie, and Jeremy Sochan additional playing time, as Paul is one a one-year contract and is likely moving on after this season.

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While losing Wembanyama is a crushing blow, the Spurs still have a fighting chance to sneak into the Play-In Tournament. The key will be improving their defense and getting more offensive production from players like Fox and Vassell, who are currently leading the team in scoring. If they fall out of contention, look for the team to give additional playing time to younger players like Castle and Sochan down the stretch, as they have potential to be NBA starters next to Wembanyama in future years.

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