College football just hits different on Wednesday. Week 7 of the season kicks off deep in the heart of West Texas tonight, where Liberty travels to face UTEP under the lights for some mid-week college football action.
Both teams enter at 1-4, desperate to stop the bleeding. Liberty has dropped four straight games — its longest skid since 2005, while UTEP has lost three in a row, with turnovers and offensive struggles piling up.
Below, we’ll break down our Liberty vs. UTEP prediction and the top PrizePicks player picks for this CUSA showdown at 8 p.m. ET at the Sun Bowl on CBS Sports Network.
Liberty may finally get dual-threat QB Ethan Vasko back after missing time with a shoulder injury, while UTEP turns again to former five-star QB Malachi Nelson, who badly needs a reset after a four-interception outing against Louisiana Tech.
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Liberty vs. UTEP Prediction, Preview: Wednesday, Oct. 8
The Flames are 2-0 all-time against the Miners, including a 441-yard rushing explosion in their last trip to El Paso. Both sides are 0-1 in league play, both winless against FBS competition in 2025 — something has to give.
Liberty Preview
Since joining CUSA, Liberty has been a consistent winner — but 2025 has been a grind. The Flames are 1-4 after mustering just 203 total yards in last week’s 21-7 loss to Old Dominion.
The big storyline is whether QB Ethan Vasko (questionable) returns under center on Wednesday. All signs point to his return, though it's not 100% as of publishing.
He’s the engine of Liberty’s option-heavy scheme, pairing downhill runs with play-action shots. Without him, the offense sputtered under QB Michael Merdinger, with just 77 yards in relief last week.
The Flames’ RB combo in Evan Dickens and Caden Williams has been a bright spot thus far, combining for 547 yards (5.0 per carry). That said, it could prove difficult for the sophomore/freshman tandem to carve out opportunities against a stingy UTEP defense that is 15th in adjusted expected points added (-0.19 EPA) per play, per Game on Paper.
Defensively, Liberty is built backward. The Flames rank top-20 nationally in pass yards allowed (170.5) but bottom-seven against the run (238.3 yards per game). Their defense has a 56.8% stop rate, which is 93rd in the nation. That’s likely a weakness UTEP is sure to test with RB Hahsean Wilson.
Liberty has history on its side, though — the Flames are 2-0 all-time against UTEP, winning by an average margin of 16 points.
UTEP Preview
For UTEP, the microscope is squarely on QB Malachi Nelson. The former five-star has flashed arm talent, already with 100 completions for 1,142 yards and 8 TDs, but his 9 INTs have been brutal. He’s thrown 8 of them in just the last three outings, including four last week vs. Louisiana Tech.
His INTs are the highest in the conference, and it’s been killing the Miners’ drives.
Wilson has been the consistent X-factor. He’s averaging 6.6 yards per carry and now faces a Liberty defense that has given up a truckload of yardage on the ground.
The Miners’ defense has been outstanding, leading CUSA in tackles for loss (43). Senior DB Udoka Ezeani has been the star, of late, coming off a 2-sack, 2-forced-fumble game in Week 6. Alongside linebackers Micah Davey and Jayden Wilson, UTEP’s front seven is among the league’s best at generating negative plays.
Still, UTEP’s passing offense is among the least efficient in FBS, averaging 15.5 points per game (119th). Unless Nelson cleans up his mistakes, the defense may struggle to carry the team for the entire game.
Liberty vs. UTEP Picks for Wednesday Night
Here are the player picks to target on PrizePicks' real money college football game and in CFB DFS for Liberty vs. UTEP on Wednesday night.
UTEP RB Hahsean Wilson Projection: 40.5 Rush Yards
Wilson’s usage hasn’t matched his efficiency. That said, he makes them count when he carries the football.
Battling a negative game script in each of the last three contests, Wilson has only received double-digit rush attempts once, and hasn’t topped 40 yards.
That could change against Liberty’s defense, which has been shredded on the ground, ranking 130th in college football at 239.3 rush yards allowed per game, setting up favorably for a runner with Wilson’s burst and consistency. If the Miners commit to the ground game early, Wilson has a real shot to turn limited carries into chunk gains.
UTEP QB Malachi Nelson Projection: 220.5 Pass Yards
Nelson has endured a brutal stretch with turnovers, but the volume is still there.
He’s averaging 228.4 passing yards per game, and UTEP has little choice but to keep the ball in his hands.
Liberty’s defense, while strong against the pass on paper — ranking 43rd in pass defense EPA, has benefited from facing more ground-heavy teams. If Nelson avoids the back-breaking mistakes, his arm talent could wind up being one of the surprises of Wednesday night.
This game may ultimately hinge on whether he bounces back from last week’s four-pick outing.
Make Wednesday College Football Picks on PrizePicks
This Liberty vs. UTEP game boils down to which offense can overcome its glaring weakness. Liberty’s run defense has been a liability all year, while UTEP’s passing game has sunk its chances.
If Vasko is back, Liberty’s option attack may be too much to handle. But if Nelson protects the ball, UTEP’s defense may be good enough to tilt the balance at home.
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