NBA DFS Cheat Sheet Today: Picks, Predictions for NBA Wednesday, 3/12

We’ve got a great nine-game slate on NBA Wednesday with two nationally televised games on the cards featuring three of the league’s best teams. 

We’ve got everything you need to lock in on tonight’s NBA slate in today’s NBA DFS Cheat Sheet below, including the PrizePicks NBA picks, top offense vs. defense mismatches, pace up spots, and today’s NBA injury report.

To kick off the national television slate, we have the teams with the second and third-best records in the NBA facing off as the Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Boston to face the Celtics. The Thunder got the better of Boston in their first meeting thanks to a 23-point second-half difference that led them to a 12-point win. 

The second ESPN game of the night brings a playoff rematch from last season with the Minnesota Timberwolves taking on the Denver Nuggets. Both teams are in tight playoff races for seeding purposes. Denver is in a duel with the Lakers, Grizzlies, and Rockets for a top-three seed. Minnesota are on a hot streak but still find themselves in a tight race to avoid the Play-In, sitting a half-game behind the Warriors, with the Clippers and Kings on their tail.

PrizePicks is the easiest way to get real money action on tonight’s NBA games. Pick More or Less on player stat projections — from points to combos to 3-pointers — and get paid if your picks are correct.

Let’s dive into the NBA Wednesday slate on PrizePicks below.

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NBA DFS Cheat Sheet Today for PrizePicks: 3/12

Below, find everything you need for the Wednesday NBA DFS slate on PrizePicks. Click each section to read more.

• NBA PrizePicks Picks Today for NBA DFS
• NBA Offense vs. Defense Mismatches
• NBA Pace Report
• NBA DFS Injury Report

NBA PrizePicks Picks Today for NBA DFS

Here are four of the top NBA DFS picks for today for PrizePicks on Wednesday, March 12.

Grizzlies G Ja Morant — 38.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts

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• The Jazz have struggled against point guards this season. They are first in fantasy points allowed to the position over the season and over the last 15 games.
• Both teams are in the top 11 in pace on the season and top six over the last 10 games, meaning there will be tons of possessions.
• The Grizzlies will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. in this game. Morant racked up 22 points, 10 assists, and 5 rebounds (37 PRA) in the first meeting against Utah without JJJ. 
• Santi Aldama is also out tonight, and he was the leading scorer the first-time the Grizzlies and Jazz met.
• Morant is averaging 26.8 points over his last 10 games.
• Morant is averaging 13.5 potential assists and 6.5 potential rebounds in two games against the Jazz this season. In their first meeting without JJJ, Morant’s potential numbers are much greater at 19 potential assists and 13 potential rebounds.

Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — 6.5 Assists

• Without Jalen Williams this season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has become more of a facilitator, averaging 8.3 assists per game. 
• In those three games, he is averaging over 10.3 potential assists.
• In their last game against the Nuggets, Williams did not play in the second half and SGA had four assists in his absence.
• SGA finished with 7 assists on 19 potential assists in his last game.
• In their first meeting, SGA finished with six assists and is expected to see a jump in usage with Williams out.

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Nuggets C Nikola Jokic — 23.5 Rebs+Asts

• Nuggets C Nikola Jokic is averaging 12.0 assists and 6.0 rebounds in two games against the Timberwolves this season.
• The Timberwolves are allowing the ninth most rebounds in the last seven games and the second most rebounds in the last 15 games.
• Over his last 15 games, Jokic is averaging 24 Rebs+Asts. In his last 10 games, he’s averaging 16.8 Rebs+Asts
• Despite only averaging 6.0 rebounds against Minnesota, Jokic is averaging 16.5 potential rebound opportunities. He is also averaging 18.5 potential assists.

Knicks C Karl-Anthony Towns — Assists

• In the last two games without PG Jalen Brunson, Knicks C Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 2.5 assists per game. 
• He cleared this projection of 2.5 assists against the Kings, who give up many more assists to opposing centers compared to the Clippers.
• In three career games on the Knicks without Brunson, KAT averages three assists per game.
• Portland has struggled in defending assists against opposing centers this season. They rank fourth in assists allowed over the season and first over the last 15 games.
• Centers Al Horford, Nic Claxton, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Kyle Filipowski have all had more than 2.5 assists against Portland in the last 10 games.

NBA Offense vs. Defense Mismatches

Here are the top offense vs. defense mismatches across the NBA Friday games.

Hornets vs. Hawks — 7:30 p.m. ET

• The Hawks are ranked 18th (113.1) in offensive rating but have seen that rank improve to ninth (118.0) over their last 10 games.
• The Hornets rank in the middle of the pack (115.0) in their season defensive rating and are 22nd (118.3) over their last 10 games.
• Charlotte ranks inside the top-10 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards over the last seven (seventh) and last 15 games (ninth).
• Hawks PG Trae Young is averaging 26 points, 7.5 assists, and 6 rebounds per game in two games against the Hornets this year.

Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies — 8: p.m. ET

• The Grizzlies are sixth (118.1) in offensive rating this season and 10th (117.5) over their last 10 games.
• The Jazz have the worst defensive rating this season at 119.4. They’ve seen a slight improvement at 117.4 but are still in the bottom-10 in the league.
• Utah is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. 
• In only 26 minutes per game against the Jazz this season, Morant is averaging 16.5 points and 8.5 assists per game.

NBA Pace Report for NBA Wednesday Games

Here are the NBA games to target for quick-paced play with additional possessions on Wednesday for NBA DFS on PrizePicks. In parentheses are the team’s possessions per game.

Hornets vs. Hawks — 7:30 p.m. ET

Over the season, the Hornets are in the bottom half of the league in pace (97.6) and that remains the same over the last 10 games (99.2). On the other hand, the Hawks have firmly remained as one of the fastest teams no matter the timeline at 2nd on the season (103.1) and 5th over their last 10 games (102.4). 

This will be a pace-up game for the Hornets who have put up an average of over 110 points per game against Atlanta this season.

Thunder vs. Cetlics — 7:30 p.m. ET

The Thunder are 10th (99.8) this season in pace and have played even faster over its last 10 games (102.8), ranking fourth. For the Celtics, their offense has been very methodical, ranking towards the bottom in pace over the season (96.6) at 27th. Their pace has slowed in their last 10 games at 95.5, ranking them dead last. 

Usually, this would be considered a pace-up game for the Celtics, however, Boston’s has one of the best offensive ratings even with a slower pace, making this more of a pace-neutral game. Their first meeting was also an indication of each team playing at their respective paces, a 105-92 win for the Thunder.

Clippers vs. Heat — 7:30 p.m. ET

These two teams are quite similar given their slow pace of play. The Clippers over the season are in the bottom half of the league in pace (97.8) and are second-to-last in pace over their last 10 games (96.0). The Heat are third to last in pace over the season (96.4) and their last 10 games (96.3). 

This is a pace-neutral game as these two teams already play slowly on their own and are now matched up against each other. It’s not an ideal spot to target for fantasy production tonight.

Knicks vs. Trail Blazers — 10 p.m. ET

Portland ranks in the middle of the pack in pace this season (98.9), but has seen a jump in its pace of play over the last 10 games (101.6). The Knicks have been pretty firm on their pace of play, with a pace just above 99 over the season and their last 10 games. That pace of 99 has also remained the same in their last two games, both without PG Jalen Brunson.

For Portland, this will be a pace-down spot from its current play-style. 

NBA DFS Injury Report Today

Below, find all of the NBA DFS Injury news for the NBA Wednesday games.

Notable Players Out

• Thunder F Jalen Williams (hip) has no timetable for a return. Aaron Wiggins will slot into the starting small forward role with Williams out.
• Sixers F Paul George (groin) and G Tyrese Maxey (back/finger) remain out. Jared Butler and Guerschon Yabusele remain in the starting lineup.
• Rockets F Amen Thomspon (ankle) will be out for at least a week. With Fred VanVleet returning, he is expected to take over the starting point guard role while Tari Eason will likely be the beneficiary forward who joins the starting lineup.
• Grizzlies forwards Jaren Jackson Jr. (ankle) and Santi Aldama (calf) remain out. GG Jackson and Jaylen Wells will remain in the starting lineup, while Morant is expected to continue to pick up usage.
• Knicks PG Jalen Brunson (ankle) will miss his third game with an ankle injury. Miles McBride has started at point guard in Brunson’s absence. He put up 21 points against the Kings on Monday — his first 20+ point game filling in for Bruncson in six games.
• Clippers F Kawhi Leonard was ruled out for tonight’s game. With Norman Powell still out, PG James Harden should be the biggest beneficiary, as well as C Ivica Zubac. With both off the floor, Harden has an astounding 39.1% usage rate this year.

Questionable or Game-Time Decisions

• Hawks G Trae Young (quad) is questionable for tonight’s game against the Hornets. Either Terance Mann or Keaton Wallace will get the starting nod if Young does miss.
• Thunder G Alex Caruso (illness) is a game-time decision for tonight. Isaiah Joe or Cason Wallace will see more minutes if he does miss the game.
• Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis (illness) is officially questionable for tonight. He was originally listed as doubtful but was just upgraded this morning. If he does play, he will likely be on a minutes restriction, but if not, look for Al Horford to remain as the starting center.
• Sixers C Andre Drummond (illness) and F Kelly Oubre Jr. (ankle) are questionable for tonight. If Drummond is out, Guerschon Yabusele will make the start at center. Lonnie Walker IV will get another start if Oubre misses.
• Mavericks G Dante Exum (hamstring) and F P.J. Washington (ankle) are questionable for tonight. Should they miss the game, Spencer Dinwiddie and Naji Marshall will be the biggest beneficiaries and jump into the starting lineup
• Jazz F Lauri Markkanen (back) was upgraded to questionable after their game on Monday. The Finn has missed the last 10 games due to back soreness. Brice Sensabaugh has filled in for Markkanen.
• Grizzlies C Zach Edey (ankle) is questionable for tonight. Jay Huff will get another start if Edey is ruled out.
• Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert (back) is listed as questionable tonight. Gobert made his return to game action last time out against the Spurs. Naz Reid will fill in at center if Gobert misses the game.

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Come back to the Playbook throughout the remainder of the NBA season for more basketball analysis for your PrizePicks and NBA DFS Lineups.