Week 1 NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Main Slate Top Matchups
September is here, and that means it’s time for NFL games that actually count. Week 1 is our first look at teams for 2024, and the Sunday schedule is loaded with exciting matchups.
With 12 games on the Week 1 DFS main slate, we have a ton of projections to wade through on PrizePicks. Let’s dive into some of the Week 1 matchups and highlight some DFS picks to try and exploit them.
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Week 1 NFL Injuries
Right off the bat, let’s highlight some key injuries that will impact the Week 1 DFS slate.
Browns RB Jerome Ford to Start
Browns RB Nick Chubb will begin the season on the reserve/PUP list, as he continues to work his way back from a torn ACL and MCL. With him sidelined, Jerome Ford is set to lead the Browns' backfield against the Cowboys. Ford averaged a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry on 204 carries in 2023.
Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard to Start
The Panthers selected RB Jonathon Brooks in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft, hoping that he can be their running back of the future. They will have to wait a little while to see if he can live up to expectations, as he will begin the season on the non-football injury list and is expected to miss at least the first four games.
Miles Sanders is still in the fold for the Panthers, but expect Chuba Hubbard to receive the bulk of their rushing attempts. He closed out last season by having at least 22 rushing attempts and 83 rushing yards in four of their final six games.
Major Vikings Offense Injuries
Like Chubb, T.J. Hockenson is also still recovering from surgery on a torn ACL and MCL. He will be on the PUP list to begin the season, lining him up to miss at least four games. Rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy (knee) has already been ruled out for all of the regular season, so the Vikings’ offense could struggle behind QB Sam Darnold.
NFL Week 1 Pass Defenses to Target
Teams made additions and subtractions during the offseason, so strictly looking at defensive data from last season won’t paint the entire picture about what an offense will be facing. Still, it does provide a basis to work off of when creating your PrizePicks lineups.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders were terrible at defending the pass last year, allowing the most passing yards per game (272.2 yards) and the most passing touchdowns in the league (2.3 per game). They also generated only eight interceptions. Their secondary did not significantly improve, so they should struggle in this department again this season.
Looking to exploit their weakness in Week 1 will be the Buccaneers, who have solidified their quarterback position with Baker Mayfield.
PrizePicks to Consider: Baker Mayfield 247.5 pass yards / Mike Evans 68.5 receiving yards
Detroit Lions
Another team that struggled to defend the pass last season was the Lions, who allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game in the league. However, some of that can likely be attributed to teams needing to throw more to keep up with the Lions’ high-powered offense, plus their indoor game environment.
The Rams are loaded with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua at wide receiver, leaving their passing game with significant upside on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. Last year in the Wild Card game in Detroit, QB Matthew Stafford threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns.
PrizePicks to Consider: WR Cooper Kupp 67.5 receiving yards / Matthew Stafford 273.5 passing yards
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NFL Week 1 Run Defenses to Target
Arizona Cardinals
Teams feasted on the Cardinals’ run defense last year. They allowed a whopping 143.2 rushing yards per game, which was the most in the NFL. Their 19 rushing touchdowns allowed were tied for the fifth-most allowed.
Week 1 brings a matchup with the Bills, who have an emerging young running back in James Cook, who will lead this backfield. They also have one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen.
PrizePicks to Consider: James Cook 61.5 Rush Yards
Denver Broncos
The Broncos were another team that was shredded on the ground. They allowed the third-most rushing yards per game in the league last year. Maybe their most startling stat is that they gave up five rushes of at least 40 yards, which was more than any other team. That could put them in a rough spot for their Week 1 matchup with the Seahawks and Kenneth Walker III.
PrizePicks to Consider: RB Kenneth Walker III 67.5 Rush Yards
Week 1 NFL DFS Picks
Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard: 15 rush attempts — MORE
The absence of Brooks clears a path for Hubbard to jump right back into the prominent role that he had last season. In his final 12 games, he got at least 16 carries in a game seven times, while Miles Sanders took a backseat. When he took on the Saints in a leading role in Week 14, he turned 23 carries into 87 yards.
QB Matthew Stafford: 23.5 pass completions — MORE
The Rams begin this season where last season ended, on the road against the Lions. In their playoff loss last season, Stafford completed 25-of-36 passes for 367 yards and two touchdowns back in the stadium where his career started.
During the 2023 regular season, Stafford completed at least 24 passes in seven of his 15 games.
The Lions averaged 27.1 points per game last season and the Rams averaged 23.8 points per game, ranking both teams inside the top-10 in the league. This should be a high-scoring affair in which both teams are forced to throw a lot to keep pace.
Stafford has a 65.6% completion rate since the start of the 2015 season, so with the high likelihood that he at least approaches 35 passes attempts in this game, more than is the way to go.
Demon Pick: WR Josh Palmer: 69.5 receiving yards — MORE
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are no longer members of the Chargers, vacating 176 targets and over 1,500 yards from last year’s squad.
The team signed DJ Chark and drafted Ladd McConkey to try and make up for their departures. 2023 first-round WR Quentin Johnston is still in the fold, but he might have a difficult time finding his way onto the field enough to make an impact.
Palmer was limited to just 10 games last season because of injury. Still, he had five games with at least 60 receiving yards and has the most rapport with QB Justin Herbert in this WR room.
Week 1 brings a matchup against the Raiders, who he torched last season. In Week 4, he posted three receptions for 77 yards against them. In Week 15, he finished with four receptions for 113 yards. With a hefty target share likely coming his way in a soft matchup, he has a favorable opportunity to start off the season with a juicy stat line.
Note: Demon picks add a payout boost to your lineup on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.
Goblin Pick: QB Deshaun Watson: 0.5 pass touchdowns — MORE
Watson was limited to just six games last season because of injury and was largely disappointing when he was on the field. Still, he had at least one passing touchdown in five of those games.
The one that he didn’t, he left early because of injury. Even in a potentially low-scoring game with the Cowboys, Watson should be able to come away with at least one passing touchdown.
Plus, the Browns are missing their goal-line warrior, Chubb, leaving more reliance on the passing game when they’re near the end-zone.
Note: Goblin picks reduce your payout on PrizePicks, as they are easier projections to hit.
Build Your Week 1 NFL DFS Lineup on PrizePicks
Week 1 is just the beginning of what’s sure to be an exciting NFL season. There’s no better way to kick off your first NFL Sunday of 2024 than building a team on PrizePicks.
Pick your favorite players, follow the action, and play for real money on PrizePicks. There’s no position requirements or salary constraints, making PrizePicks the easiest way to get action on the NFL.
Enjoy your first sweat of the NFL season!
Follow Mike Barner on X: @rotomikebarner
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