2025 Orange Bowl Predictions: Notre Dame vs. Penn State Picks for CFB DFS
The first ticket to the College Football National Championship will be punched on Thursday, January 9, as Notre Dame takes on Penn State in the 2025 Orange Bowl. Below, we’ll give you the best Orange Bowl picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Penn State for CFB DFS to use in your PrizePicks Lineup.
Notre Dame (13-1) and Penn State (13-2) have had to take the long road in the College Football Playoff because neither has received a bye. Penn State has rolled in the first two games, scoring 30+ points in each and having a +45 scoring differential. Notre Dame’s last game was a little tougher, as they needed Georgia to make some mistakes and score a special teams touchdown to win.
When you combine the Orange Bowl picks below, it allows you to build a lineup to 13.5x your money!
The winner of this game will advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday, January 20.
For more college football picks and predictions throughout the College Football Playoff and bowl games, stay tuned to the Playbook for picks and predictions on all the bowl and CFB Playoff games.
CFB DFS Picks for 2025 Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Here are the best Orange Bowl picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Penn State on Thursday, January 9, 2025.
- Where to Watch the Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Penn State
- Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love 36.5 Rushing Yards — Less
- Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard 27.5 Pass Attempts — More
- Penn State RB Kaytron Allen 58.5 Rushing Yards — More
- Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton 61.5 Rushing Yards — More
- Penn State TE Tyler Warren 6.5 Receptions — More (Demon)
- Orange Bowl Prediction: Penn State 24, Notre Dame 16
Orange Bowl 2025: Where to Watch Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Below, find when the Orange Bowl 2025 starts on January 9 and where to watch Notre Dame vs. Penn State.
Date: Thursday, January 9, 2025
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff
Location: Hard Rock Stadium. Miami Gardens, Fla.
TV: ESPN
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love 36.5 Rushing Yards — Less
Last week, Notre Dame didn’t put on its best performance. The Georgia defense did a great job of shutting down the Irish, who are third in points per game (37.7). The offense, which garnered 406 yards per game this season, had just 244 yards and one offensive touchdown. This comes from a good, but not great, Georgia defense that was 36th in yards allowed per game (345.5) and 14th in offensive touchdowns allowed per game (2.2).
Now, they face one of the best defensive units; Penn State is fourth in offensive touchdowns allowed per game (1.7) and fifth in total yards allowed (288.9). You take away the 98-yard run from Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love against Indiana, and he’s averaging 2.2 yards per game in the College Football Playoff; now he has to face one of the best-run defenses as they allow 101 yards per game (8th).
He also re-aggravated the knee injury last week, and was unable to return. Now he has a short week of rest, which could diminish his usage. This was already going to be a difficult game for Love, but now it seems like he will be a non-factor.
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard 27.5 Pass Attempts — More
If Love cannot play up to his standards, this could be a game where Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard must pass more than usual. Notre Dame will not be comfortable with that, but if the Irish can’t get anything going in the run game, they will have to move the ball through the air.
Penn State has confidence in its secondary to contain the pass. The Nittany Lions will allow their opponents to throw, as they were 52nd in pass attempts allowed per game (29.7). It’s even higher at 34.7 in their last three, but opponents didn’t do much with those chances. The Nittany Lions are 21st in passing yards allowed per game (187.9) and yards per completion (6.3).
Leonard will not try to go deep, as 62.9% of his attempts are no deeper than nine yards. Penn State will let him get those short-yardage attempts because they know he can’t burn them deep.
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Penn State RB Kaytron Allen 58.5 Rushing Yards — More
Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton 61.5 Rushing Yards — More
While the Notre Dame run game hasn’t been as great lately, Penn State has put in the work on the ground. The duo of RBs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have been fantastic in the last two games; Allen is averaging 7.5 yards per carry, while Singleton is at 6.8. Boise State wasn’t a good measuring stick at 94th in PFF run defense grade (75.4), but SMU is ninth (92.9).
Notre Dame was a good run defense at 29th (89.1), but are the Irish up for the task of stopping a team that will continually pound the rock? Look back at some of their opponents who are a heavy run offense; Army is No. 1 and went off for 207 rushing yards, but Notre Dame beat them easily. However, Northern Illinois is 19th in run play percentage, and they had 190 rushing yards to give the Irish their only loss.
Allen and Singleton have excelled in a split backfield, and each should see the ball enough to hit these numbers.
Penn State TE Tyler Warren 6.5 Receptions — More (Demon)
There will be times in this game when each team must complete passes. The confidence is that TE Tyler Warren will be the security blanket for QB Drew Allar like he was last week against Boise State with six catches for 63 yards.
Warren loves running to the middle of the field, as he doesn’t mind making catches in traffic, and Notre Dame struggles to cover that part of the field. You’re going to see linebackers stuff the box to stop the run, allowing Warren to get on top, then it’s just either a slot corner or safety that will have to defend him. Good luck to a defensive back trying to cover someone who is 6-foot-6, 260 pounds.
Just watch his second touchdown against Boise State last week to see what he can do, even when contested.
Orange Bowl Prediction: Penn State 24, Notre Dame 16
If this game is decided in the trenches, Penn State should be favored because the Nittany Lions have a better backfield. Even when there are occasions when they need to take the ball to the air, which favors QB Drew Allar. Penn State coach James Franklin allowed him to pass more and had a best season with 3,192 passing yards and 8.6 yards per completion.
We still shouldn’t expect the same explosive performance as we’ve seen from the Nittany Lions in the last two games. Both teams will eat up time of possession and keep the score low, as it should be a defensive battle, with Penn State coming away with the win.
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