4 NCAA Tournament Teams with the Easiest Path to the Championship

This is March! The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket is officially set, and it’s time to lock in your Cinderella picks and National Championship selections.

Let’s take a look at a few teams with a legit shot at reaching the National Semifinals in San Antonio, Tex. Notably, we’re not focusing on No. 1 seeds Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida. 

With one of the most talented groups of top seeds in recent tournament history, those teams already have the easiest perceived paths to the national semifinals — and rightfully so.

This isn’t necessarily about predicting regional winners outright. Instead, it’s about projecting a potential run to the regional final, where a team would then have a chance to win a single-elimination game with a trip to San Antonio on the line. 

Below, we’ll give you one team from each region who has a cleaner-than-anticipated path to the region finals (or the national quarterfinals).

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Michigan State Spartans

Region: South (Top Left)
Seed: No. 2

Projected Path: No. 15 Bryant, No. 7 Marquette, No. 3 Iowa State, No. 1 Auburn

January. February. IZZO. Legendary Michigan State coach Tom Izzo literally has a month named after him and for good reason — his Spartans always seem to peak in March. With a deep, 10-man rotation of players who understand their roles, Izzo has the flexibility to make strategic lineup adjustments to counter opponents.

Star freshman Jase Richardson (41.2 3P%) headlines the offense and has made significant strides as the season has progressed. The son of former NBA standout Jason Richardson is averaging 17.3 points per game since February 8 and is Michigan State’s primary threat from beyond the arc. While the Spartans are not a good 3-point shooting team (328th, per KenPom), they make up for it on the defensive end with the country’s fifth-ranked defense that has locked down some of the best offenses in the country this season.

The Big Ten regular-season champions open against a solid No. 15 seed in Bryant, though KenPom gives the Spartans a 96% chance of victory. A potential second-round matchup looms against a Marquette team that relies heavily on 3-pointers, and Michigan State holds opponents to the second-lowest 3-point percentage in the country.

In the Round of 16, Michigan State could face a talented but banged up Iowa State squad that pulled a reverse Florida State football by announcing that senior guard Keshon Gilbert will miss the tournament due to injury right after the selection show. 

If Michigan State advances to a showdown with a veteran Auburn team in the South final, it could be cinema.

🏀 Find the printable NCAA Tournament Bracket and Round of 64 Schedule

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Texas Tech Red Raiders

Region: West (Bottom Left)
Seed Number: No. 3

Projected Path: No. 14 UNC Wilmington, No. 6 Missouri, No. 2 St. John’s, No. 1 Florida

Grant McCasland’s Texas Tech squad has flown under the radar this season despite finishing second in the Big 12 regular season. Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin has been a revelation since transferring from New Mexico, and freshman Christian Anderson has emerged as a key contributor, averaging nearly 14 points over his last 11 games.

The Red Raiders boast a fascinating résumé, with road wins at Houston, BYU and Kansas, and a home victory over Arizona. However, puzzling early season losses to Saint Joseph’s, UCF, and a late season loss at TCU raise questions about their consistency.

Still, Texas Tech has firepower on offense and plays enough defense to handle some of the nation’s top-scoring teams, making them a tough out in the tournament.

Texas Tech begins its tournament run against a sneaky No. 14 UNC Wilmington squad. If they move to the Round of 32, they could meet No. 6 Missouri. Mizzou has struggled down the stretch, dropping five of its last seven games since the team’s viral “shhhh” pose following an upset win over Alabama. While the Tigers boast a KenPom top-five offense, their 70th-ranked defense remains a massive concern.

If Texas Tech reaches the Round of 16, it could face the antithesis of Mizzou in St. John’s, which features the nation’s top-ranked defense but has difficulty generating offense. According to KenPom, the Red Raiders would be projected favorites in that potential matchup, and a win would pave the way for a Texas Tech-Florida showdown with a trip to San Antonio on the line.

BYU Cougars

Region: East (Top Right)
Seed Number: No. 6

Projected Path: No. 11 VCU, No. 3 Wisconsin, No. 2 Alabama, No. 1 Duke

BYU enters the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. Before the Cougars’ loss to No. 1 seed Houston in the Big 12 Tournament, they had not lost since an 18-point smackdown at Cincinnati on February 9. Their nine-game winning streak includes victories over tournament teams Kansas and Arizona, plus two wins against Iowa State.

First-year head coach and former Phoenix Suns assistant Kevin Young has BYU playing its best basketball at the right time, with the Cougars’ KenPom offensive efficiency ranking climbing to No. 11 in the nation. 

Keep an eye on projected NBA draft pick Egor Demin (10.3 PPG, 5.4 APG) and Richie Saunders (16.0 PPG), who have been key offensive contributors for the Cougars.

BYU opens the tournament against an under-seeded VCU team led by star head coach Ryan Odom, giving us an opportunity to quickly learn a lot about this BYU squad. Odom has been linked to several major coaching opportunities in recent weeks, which could be a distraction as his team prepares for a game nearly 1,670 miles from its Virginia campus. 

If the Cougars stay locked in defensively, they should advance to the second round, where they would face No. 3 seed Wisconsin and its high-powered offense. The Badgers have struggled to defend the 3-point line this season and could have tired legs after a long four-game, four-day run to the Big Ten Tournament title that concluded Sunday evening. The matchup will also be played in Denver, potentially giving BYU a bit of a home-court advantage.

A potential Round of 16 showdown with Alabama poses another offensive showdown, and whichever teams’ 3-point shots are falling will likely grab the win. Of course, No. 1 Duke would await the winner, but you never know what will happen in March…

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Tennessee Volunteers

Region: Midwest (Bottom Right)
Seed Number: No. 2

Projected Path: No. 15 Wofford, No. 7 UCLA, No. 3 Kentucky, No. 1 Houston

After narrowly missing out on the national semifinals with a close loss to eventual runner-up Purdue, Rick Barnes and the Tennessee Volunteers return as a No. 2 seed with perhaps their best chance yet to reach the program’s first national semifinal. Tennessee is led by 5-foot-9 senior playmaker Zakai Zeigler (7.3 assists per game) and one of the nation’s top transfers Chaz Lanier (17.7 points per game).

While the Volunteers’ third-ranked defense (per KenPom) grabs headlines, it’s their improved offense that sets this team apart from past versions. Tennessee has the versatility to win in multiple ways. The Volunteers remain comfortable in their signature low-possession, grind-it-out style but now have enough offensive firepower to keep pace with some of the nation’s best scoring teams, despite ranking 346th in tempo.

The Volunteers open against Wofford, a matchup that KenPom gives Tennessee a 93% chance of advancing. A potential Round of 32 game against No. 7 UCLA could be intriguing, given the Bruins’ lockdown defense and disciplined play. However, UCLA’s lack of shot-makers could make it difficult to keep pace with Tennessee’s underrated and versatile offense, giving the Volunteers the edge.

In the Round of 16, Tennessee could face in-conference rival No. 3 Kentucky, a team it knows well but has lost to twice in close games this season. It is incredibly tough to beat a good team three times in a season, and that familiarity should work in favor of the more tournament-tested Volunteers.

If Tennessee reaches the Midwest finals, it could meet a No. 1 Houston team that has been dominant all season. But the Cougars are a bit banged up and can be vulnerable at times when their shots aren’t falling, as they rely on slowing the game down and staying efficient. 

While Tennessee wouldn’t necessarily be projected to beat the top-seeded Cougars, a one-game, single-elimination scenario always leaves room for surprises.

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