AFC Championship Predictions: Bills vs. Chiefs PrizePicks Lineup

The 2025 AFC Championship game brings together what has quickly become a league-favorite matchup in the Bills vs. Chiefs. 

On Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS, MVP-frontrunner Josh Allen will take on Patrick Mahomes, in continuation of a series Mahomes has consistently gotten the better of when it counts — Mahomes is 3-0 in the Playoffs, while Allen is 4-1 in the regular season.

Below, we’ll give you our staff’s AFC Championship predictions for NFL DFS, with six player picks for PrizePicks. Use this free 6-Pick NFL PrizePicks Lineup to help build your own Lineups for the Conference Championship games this weekend. 

By combining these NFL picks, you can reach a 42x payout on PrizePicks with a Power Play Lineup, or 29x with a Flex — which allows you to miss picks and still get paid.

PrizePicks is the easiest way to cash in on your NFL takes for the Conference Championships. Just pick more or less on player stat projections, lock in your Lineup, and get paid if your picks are correct.

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AFC Championship Game Predictions & PrizePicks Free Lineup

Below, you’ll find six player picks for Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship game to help you create your NFL PrizePicks Lineup.

• Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco 32.5 Rush Yards  — Less
• Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy 3.5 Rush Yards — More
• TD Scorer: Bills RB James Cook (Demon)
• TD Scorer: Bills QB Josh Allen 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
• Khalil Shakir + Travis Kelce 124.5 Receiving Yards (Combo) — More
• Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes 0.5 Interceptions — Less

💯 Find the expert free PrizePicks Lineup for the NFC Championship here

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Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco 32.5 Rush Yards  — Less

By: Ryelan Jones

If the Chiefs don’t trust Isaiah Pacheco, why should we? Since his return from injury, Pacheco has yet to see more than 46% of the team's offensive snaps in a game. For comparison, in the Playoffs last year, he never saw less than a 70% snap share. 

He used to be the Chiefs' go-to guy, but RB Kareem Hunt has seemingly stolen the role since Pacheco’s injury, having both more attempts and more field time than his counterpart in three straight games now.

Pacheco has cleared this projection in just two of six games since his return, en route to four straight Lesses, and for two straight weeks posted back-to-back season lows in rush attempts. Buffalo ranks 12th in rush yards allowed per game, coming off a game where they contained RB Derrick Henry to just 84 yards, and there isn’t much reason to believe Pacheco is going to emerge as the lead back when Hunt has been more effective and the trust is more in his favor.

Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy 3.5 Rush Yards – More

By: Mike Barner

On a team full of veterans with Super Bowl rings, Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy is a rookie with a ton of speed. At the combine, he set a record with his 40-yard dash time of 4.21 seconds. He showed his explosiveness in the passing game, averaging 7.0 yards after the catch during the regular season.

Another way the Chiefs try to use Worthy’s speed is in the running game. He received at least one carry in 12 games during the regular season. That helped him record at least four rushing yards in 10 of those games. He received a carry against the Texans last week, but it went for -8 yards. 

When he faced the Bills in Week 11, he turned his lone carry into seven yards. Per 4for4 Fantasy Football, the Bills allowed the highest explosive rush percentage (12.41%) in the league during the regular season. As long as Worthy gets his one carry, he has a favorable opportunity to hit this projection, and he’s got multiple carries in three of his last four full games.

TD Scorer: Bills RB James Cook 0.5 Rush+Rec TD — More (Demon)

By: Noel Alberto

Bills RB James Cook Cook was kept out of the end zone in the Bills’ most recent game against the Ravens, but should get opportunities to find it when the Bills are in the red zone. In their regular season meeting, Cook had limited touches and yards (9 carries for 20 yards) but still found the end zone twice.

The Chiefs had a stout run defense in the regular season, ranking top-10 in rush yards allowed. But they allowed 130 yards to Joe Mixon and CJ Stroud combined last week, showing some vulnerability as they head into a game versus a team that loves to establish the run on early downs.

QB Josh Allen and Cook are a very formidable duo, and if the Chiefs sell out to stop Allen at the goal line, it would give Cook more of an opportunity to score.

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TD Scorer: Bills QB Josh Allen 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

By: Jacob Wallace

NFL quarterbacks tend to run more frequently during the playoffs, putting their bodies on the line in high-stakes, win-or-go-home matchups. For example, Josh Allen averaged 37 rushing yards per game during the regular season, but his rushing yards have increased to an average of 56 per game in two Playoff games.

Allen has rushed for five touchdowns in his last five games, making him a reliable option when they Bills are just 2 yards from the end zone. He’s second among all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns this season.

Let’s also remember his receiving touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers this season, which he could also cash this projection with. Allen is a special talent, showing time and time again that he will do whatever it takes to win and find the end zone.

Khalil Shakir + Travis Kelce 124.5 Receiving Yards (Combo) — More

By: Austin Wells

Both Bills WR Khalil Shakir and Chiefs TE Travis Kelce had inconsistent seasons, having 821 and 823 yards respectively. 

Shakir is having his best playoff run now that he has taken the WR1 position, averaging 64 yards per game, nearly 20 more than his previous best. Although the Buffalo Bills have a promising run game, the Chiefs' have a top-8 run defense and will likely Allen to make plays through the air. If able to maintain his seasonal average of 6-7 receptions per game, Shakir should have no problem gaining nearly half of these receiving yards.

Kelce is nearly on pace to have a career Playoff year as well. Compared to his season average of 51.4 yards a game, Kelce managed 117 yards on only 7 receptions last week, as Mahomes found him in key situations for explosive plays. The Bills have a bottom-8 passing defense this season, and Kelce has always been Mahomes' go-to pass catcher in the playoffs. 

Kelce's playoff average is 87.8 receiving yards per game and with 6.92 receptions per game; he is very likely to gain a majority of the yards between the two.

With both of these pass catchers being reliable options in their offense, specifically in the playoffs, they should have plenty of opportunities to cash this combo projection. Find this specific combo projection under the Receiving Yards (Combo) tab under NFL on PrizePicks.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes 0.5 Interceptions — Less

By: Christian Hardy

Save for one brutal throw on a miscommunication with WR Rashod Bateman last week, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson picked apart this Bills defense. The interception on that throw, plus two more turnovers — and a two-point blunder — are the reasons they’re not in this AFC Championship game. 

I can’t see Patrick Mahomes doing the same here. Although he threw two interceptions against the Bills when these teams faced off earlier this year, Mahomes is built differently in the Playoffs, and he’s extremely careful with the ball.

Since 2022, Mahomes has thrown only one interception in eight Playoff games. One of those games was against the Bills, and in their previous Playoff matchup in the 2021 Playoffs, Mahomes threw for 33 completions with 3 TDs and zero INTs. 

In addition, Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception in seven-straight games. With his weapons healthy and TE Travis Kelce looking like a real contributor in the Playoffs, he’ll take care of the ball with ease here. With a recent Playoff track record this clean, I'm willing to add this pick to Lineups across the board.

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Build our PrizePicks Lineup for the AFC Championship

There’s only three games left in the NFL season — the two Conference Championships and the 2025 Super Bowl. Don’t miss your last opportunities to win real money in these Playoff games on PrizePicks. 

Use the picks above to cash in on the AFC Championship, plus other analysis and PrizePicks picks from the Playbook. Lock in your Lineup for the Conference Championship games, and if your picks are correct, you’ll get paid instantly after the games end.