Bills vs. Dolphins: Best Thursday Night Football Picks for DFS
Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season has come and gone. Now we turn our eyes to the first Week 2 showdown, as the Buffalo Bills make their way to South Florida to face the Miami Dolphins in an explosive AFC East matchup.
Below, we’ll take a look at some of the best Thursday Night Football DFS picks on PrizePicks for the Bills vs. Dolphins showdown, including a demon pick to boost your payout.
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Bills vs. Dolphins: Time, TV, Location
Date: Thursday, September 12, 2024
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL.
TV: Prime Video
A new-look Bills offense led by star quarterback Josh Allen looks to keep their stride going after picking up a massive comeback win against the Arizona Cardinals. Allen put up 232 yards passing with four total touchdowns in the season debut.
Miami is looking to go 2-0 at home after taking down Florida rival, the Jacksonville Jaguars, with a 17-point comeback led by Tua Tagovailoa’s 338 passing yards. Will the Bills continue to use the “next man up” mentality and pull out a victory or will the Miami offense be too dominant for them to keep up?
Bills vs. Dolphins: Thursday Night Football DFS Picks
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: 0.5 Rush+Rec TD — MORE
The Dolphins star wide receiver was the main focal point of last week's game. After his altercation with police in the morning, Hill proceeded to then take in seven receptions for 130 yards on 12 targets, including an 80-yard touchdown.
The Dolphins moved Hill all over the formation, as he took 17 snaps in the slot, and 20 out wide, and consistently found ways to get him the ball.
I look for Hill to continue this effort, as the Bills’ defense gave up two touchdowns to an Arizona Cardinals’ offense that has far less weapons compared to the Dolphins. Hill also received over a third of the offense’s target share, so it's very likely the Dolphins put him in that position again this week.
Hill scored a touchdown in 6-of-9 home games last year, and in 1-of-2 games against the Bills.
Dolphins RB De’Von Achane: 52.5 Rush Yards — Less
Continuing the trend of explosive offense, the one spot that lacks in this dynamic offense is the Dolphins’ run game. The design of this offense is to incorporate large amounts of pre-snap motion; in Week 1, they had the highest motion rate in the NFL at 91 percent.
De’Von Achane’s role in this offense is no different than the other pieces. The snap motion and impact in the passing game is what separates him and makes him lead back ahead of Raheem Mostert.
Achane might’ve only had 24 rushing yards in Week 1, but he made up for it with 76 receiving yards out of the back field and in empty sets.
The format of this offense is why I believe Achane’s production will stay through the air rather than on the ground, especially in close games. This team is still dynamic and Achane can break off a long run, but it isn’t the likely choice.
With all of that said, keep a close eye on Achane and Mostert’s injury status after Wednesday. Achane is dealing with an ankle injury, and Mostert has a chest injury; both did not practice on Monday. If either is out, production will swing wildly in the other’s favor. With Achane’s ankle injury, it may also limit his explosiveness out of the backfield.
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Demon Pick: Bills TE Dalton Kincaid — 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
Kincaid had a rough start to the season, only pulling in one reception for 11 yards. The tight end received only 4.5% of the teams target share, which is very lackluster for the hopes many fans had going into the season.
But most of that can be chalked up to Cardinals keying on Kincaid in the middle of the field.
Although Kincaid didn’t get targets, he ran a route on 25 of the 30 passing plays, second most on the team. Even with Josh Allen rushing near the goal line with two rushing touchdowns last week, the upside for Kincaid is still very high.
The Bills had seven offensive drives within scoring range, six in the red zone, and four that ended with touchdowns. Kincaid has a good chance to wind up in the end zone this week.
Note: Demon picks add a payout boost to your lineup on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.
Game Prediction: Dolphins 31, Bills 27
The picks are in and based on my selections above, I expect this matchup to be a high-scoring game. Both offenses were top five in Week 1 and the Dolphins had the No. 1 passing game while the Bills came in at No. 4.
This will be a close game, however I am pretty reserved about this Bills offense considering they do not have as many playmakers in skill positions with experience yet.
Wide receiver is the biggest skill gap as you have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle vs. Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman. The running back groups are pretty dynamic in their own ways as James Cook is a more downhill runner while De’Von Achane is more of a receiving back.
This game should come down to who can get a stop in crunch time. Ultimately, the Dolphins have the easiest chance to do so because of the lack of down-field threats on the Bills side. This game could go both ways and should be an exciting matchup to kickoff Week 2 on Thursday Night.
Make Your Thursday Night Football Picks on PrizePicks
Ready to build your winning lineup for Thursday Night Football? The Week 2 Bills vs Dolphins matchup promises high-octane offenses with plenty of opportunities to cash in on PrizePicks.
Whether you’re boosting your payout with a Demon pick, or staying safe with a Goblin pick, there’s plenty of ways to put your NFL takes into action with projections on the PrizePicks board.
Just pick more or less on two or more player projections, lock in your lineup, sit back, and stay in the green to get paid out after Thursday Night Football.
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