Bills vs. Jets: Monday Night Football Picks for PrizePicks
Both playoff hopefuls, both on a two-game skid — the Buffalo Bills are set to clash with the New York Jets on Monday Night Football in MetLife Stadium.
The biggest talking point won’t be the QB play or the injury report, but rather the new look Jets following the firing of head coach Robert Saleh. Offensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is taking over as interim coach, while Todd Downing, the team’s former passing-game coordinator, will call the plays.
Below, we’ll highlight some of the best Monday Night Football picks for NFL DFS and PrizePicks, including a demon pick to boost your payout on PrizePicks.
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Bills vs. Jets Monday Night Football: Time, TV, Location
Date: Monday, October 14, 2024
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
TV: ABC, ESPN
Monday Night Football Picks: Bills vs. Jets
Below are three picks for Monday Night Football for PrizePicks, as well as a score prediction for the Bills vs. Jets showdown in New York.
- Jets WR Allen Lazard 5.5 Reception Targets
- Jets RB Breece Hall 13.5 Rush Attempts
- TD Scorer Prediction: Bills RB James Cook
- Game Prediction: Bills 21, Jets 17
Jets WR Allen Lazard 5.5 Reception Targets — More
Lazard draws a Bills defense that allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Lazard also has the highest drop rate in the entire NFL of players with over 30 targets at an astounding 23.1%. The league average is 6.4%.
Jets QB Aaron Rodgers does not care about either of these statistics, as he’s continued to target Lazard. When you are taking targets, you don’t need to worry about the drops either.
Rodgers has thrown the ball to Lazard at an average of 6.6 times a game this season, bolstered by 9 in Week 1, 8 in Week 4, and 9 in Week 5. Even with chemistry building with WR Garret Wilson, Rodgers will look for his familiar friend who he has now spent six seasons with.
In 4 of 5 games this season, the Bills have allowed multiple players on each team to clear this amount of targets, and with Lazard firmly cemented as the team’s WR2, this week should be no different.
If the Bills pull away late which they often do, the script should only dictate more targets for Rodgers' old pal.
Jets RB Breece Hall 13.5 Rush Attempts — More
Anyone could watch Jets RB Breece Hall and tell you he’s a guy that should be getting double digit touches a game. Jets interim HC Jeff Ulbrich agrees. He said the Jets will be “committed to a run heavy offense” under his regime.
In four of five games this season, the Jaguars blowout being the exception, the Bills have faced a runner that attempted 15 or more rushes. Breece himself has cleared this projection the first three games of the season and in the last three games of the 2023 season.
In Weeks 4 and 5 Breece saw two top tier defenses and still maintained a 70+% snap share. RB Braelon Allen is not taking over anytime soon, though he may get some carries, and the Bills rank dead last in RB fantasy points allowed this season.
I love a lot of the Mores on Breece Hall for MNF on PrizePicks. Here’s a few more Hall quick hits.
More than 59.5 Rush Yards. The Bills have been gashed by the run game through five weeks. They allow the most yards per carry to opposing runners at 5.2 a carry and have allowed the third-most runs of 10+ yards with 22.
More than 26.5 Receiving Yards. The Bills have allowed the most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs at 60 yards per game. They also allow the league’s sixth-most yards per reception at 7.5. Hall has reached this number in three of five games this year, and has at least 4 targets in every game.
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TD Scorer Prediction: Bills RB James Cook Rush+Rec TD (Demon)
James Cook has been cooking. Last week, he was fourth overall league wide in red-zone looks with six. He even managed to secure a TD against the stingy Texans defense who rank near the best for rushing TDs allowed and top three in rush yards allowed.
Through five weeks he has 13 rush attempts in the red zone (inside the 20-yard line) along with two targets. His red-zone production accounts for four of his five TDs on the season.
This season has been very different for Cook, as through five games last season he had just eight red-zone looks resulting in a single TD. QB Josh Allen may still be a vulture, but the game plan may finally be “Let James Cook.”
If you like James Cook on Monday night but want something safer, look no further than his normal projection of 12.0 Fantasy Score on PrizePicks.
Cook has averaged 16.8 Fantasy Score a game this season and isn’t a likely candidate to slow down any time soon. He’s also averaged 4.2 Fantasy Points Over Expected per Game, meaning there's really no such thing as a matchup problem for James Cook.
Note: Demon picks add a payout boost to your lineup on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.
Monday Night Football Prediction: Bills 21, Jets 17
The Bills losses have looked far different than the Jets losses that seemingly got Saleh fired. I don’t see the troops rallying around the interim head coach, and I don’t see the Bills taking any pity on them even in front of the home crowd.
To help the Bills case, QB Josh Allen has also never lost three in a row. And now he faces a team with a new head coach.
The Jets will learn the hard way that firing your coach doesn’t make your QB or situation any better, and I see the Bills moving to a respectable 4-2 and the Jets falling to an underwhelming 2-4.
Make Your Monday Night Football Picks on PrizePicks
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Pick more or less on two or more player projections, set your lineup, and lock in for Monday Night Football. Keep coming back to the Playbook for more insights on NFL DFS all season long.
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