Bills vs. Ravens: Sunday Night Football Picks for DFS

September 27, 2024

By: Mike Barner

Bills QB Josh Allen and WR Khalil Shakir celebrate after a touchdown. Both Josh Allen and Khalil Shakir are top NFL DFS picks for the Bills vs. Ravens Sunday Night Football showdown in Week 4.

Sunday Night Football can’t get much better than the Bills vs. Ravens showdown in Week 4. Two teams with AFC Championship hopes and two quarterbacks who can do it all will face off to cap off Sunday night.

With that exciting game on the docket, let’s look at some of the top DFS picks for PrizePicks for the Bills and Ravens Sunday night matchup. Included is a best touchdown scorer pick, and a goblin pick if you want to take a safer route in your PrizePicks Lineup.

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Bills vs. Ravens Sunday Night Football: Time, How to Watch

Date: Sunday, September 29, 2024
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Md.
TV: NBC, Peacock (streaming)

Bills vs. Ravens Picks for Sunday Night Football

Bills WR Khalil Shakir 47.5 Receiving Yards — MORE

The Bills entered this season in search of a new No. 1 wide receiver after moving on from Stefon Diggs. Gabriel Davis also left the team, leaving plenty of targets up for grabs.

Bills WR Khalil Shakir was one of their few holdovers at the position, coming off a career-best 2023 campaign in which he turned 45 targets into 39 receptions, 611 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.

Shakir has been busy out of the gate, receiving at least five targets in two of three games. His average depth of target at 3.6 yards is not great, but he has helped make up for it by averaging 8.4 yards after the catch.

Shakir also leads the team in targets with a 19.7% target share, as well as weighted opportunity rating (37.4%) — almost 10% higher than TE Dalton Kincaid.

The Ravens have given up 13.9 yards per reception to wide receivers this season, so in what could be a high-scoring game, Shakir has a shot to show out here.

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Ravens RB Justice Hill 14.5 Receiving Yards — MORE

Ravens RB Derrick Henry destroyed the Cowboys on the ground in Week 3, rushing 25 times for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has recorded at least one rushing touchdown in all three games this season and should continue to have plenty of opportunities to reach the end zone for a potent Ravens offense.

The Ravens don’t use Henry much in the passing game, with a total of four targets this season. Ravens RB Justice Hill is their preferred pass-catching option out of the backfield, registering 12 targets across three games.

That helped him finish with at least 21 receiving yards twice this year.

The Bills have an impressive defensive line and secondary, but they have been vulnerable to opponent running backs in the passing game, giving up 19 receptions (fourth-most in the NFL) for 162 yards and a touchdown.

Here are the first three weeks of RBs vs the Bills defense in the pass game:

Cardinals RBs James Conner & Emari Demarcado: 5 receptions, 59 yards
Dolphins RB De’Von Achane: 7 receptions, 69 yards, 1 TD
Jaguars RB Travis Etienne: 4 receptions, 17 yards

In addition, the Ravens might need to throw more to keep up with the Bills’ high-powered offense, leaving Hill with the potential for several targets.

Best TD Scorer Pick: Bills RB James Cook 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs (Demon Pick)

Coming into this year, Bills RB Cook had totaled four rushing touchdowns and five receiving touchdowns during his first two seasons with the Bills. But he’s cooking this year.

Cook already has three rushing touchdowns and one receiving score this year, establishing himself as the go-to in the Bills backfield.

While he has combined for just 22 carries the last two weeks, that’s because the Bills cruised to easy victories in both matchups and decided to give him added rest in the second half.

Last season, Cook had 33 red-zone rushing attempts over 17 games, which included 18 carries inside the 10-yard line. He already has eight red-zone carries this year, including five of them inside the 10-yard line.

Although the Ravens have held opposing running backs to 2.8 yards per carry, they have given up four rushing touchdowns. This is worth the potential reward that comes with it being a Demon pick.

You can also take the Cook + Ravens TE Mark Andrews combo touchdown scorer pick on PrizePicks, which will green out if either player scores a touchdown.

Note: Demon picks add a payout boost to your lineup on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.

Bills QB Josh Allen 24.5 Rush Yards — MORE (Goblin Pick)

In 2023, Allen rushed for at least 25 yards eight times during the regular season and in both playoff games. He picked up right where he left off in Week 1 this year, rushing nine times for 39 yards and two touchdowns.

While he only had two carries in a dominant win over the Dolphins in Week 2, he rushed six times for 44 yards last week against the Jaguars.

Including the playoffs, Allen played 10 games last season against teams who finished with a winning record. He had at least 25 rushing yards in seven of those games and barely missed that threshold in one other game with 24 rushing yards.

In tight games against good teams, Allen tends to lean more on his legs to help the Bills win. The Ravens are only 1-2 this season, but they are one of the best teams in the AFC with Super Bowl aspirations. Expect Allen to receive a significant number of rushing opportunities.

Note: Goblin picks reduce your payout on PrizePicks, as they are easier projections to hit.

Sign up on PrizePicks with promo code “Playbook” to get $50 instantly when you play a $5 NFL lineup

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Lock in on PrizePicks NFL Sunday Night Football

With these Bills vs. Ravens picks at your disposal, it’s now time to build your NFL lineup on PrizePicks for Sunday Night Football. It’s as simple as picking more or less on player projections to win real money.

Pick more or less on two or more player projections — or up to six, lock in your lineup, sit back, and enjoy the game. Keep coming back to the Playbook for more insights on NFL DFS.

Follow Mike Barner for more NFL DFS Picks: @rotomikebarner