Black Friday NFL Game Picks: Raiders vs. Chiefs

There's no better time to watch football than Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Week 13 begins with four enticing matchups during this holiday season, even providing a few clinching scenarios for the playoffs.

Below we will dive into the Black Friday NFL Game for best picks featuring the Raiders vs. Chiefs for NFL DFS on PrizePicks. The easiest way to get in on real money action on this Black Friday GNFL ame is by locking in a lineup on PrizePicks.

Keep an eye out throughout the day for Black Friday discounted projections on the PrizePicks board as you’re building your Lineups. 

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Black Friday NFL Game Picks: Raiders vs. Chiefs

Here are the Black Friday game picks for the Raiders vs. Chiefs game for NFL DFS on PrizePicks.

• Patrick Mahomes 1.5 Pass TDs (Goblin) — More
• Raiders TE Brock Bowers 6.5 Receptions — Less
• TD Scorer Prediction: Chiefs TE Noah Gray
• Black Friday NFL Game Prediction

Raiders vs. Chiefs: Time, How to Watch

Date: Friday, November 29, 2024

Time: 3 p.m. ET kickoff

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

How to Watch: Prime Video (streaming)

This AFC West showdown features teams having two completely different seasons. The last place Las Vegas Raiders travel to Kansas City to face the first place Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs are looking to handle business as they could clinch a playoff berth with a win and a loss by either the Denver Broncos or Miami Dolphins. The Raiders on the other hand lost starting QB Gardner Minshew for the year to a broken collarbone. 

The Raiders’ season continues to be a downward spiral as they look closer to the draft to find their new franchise quarterback.

While we’re blessed by a Black Friday game, this one shouldn’t be much of a game in one of the toughest environments in the NFL.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes 1.5 Pass TDs (Goblin) — More

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes should have a relatively easy week against the Raiders. The Raiders have allowed the fifth-most touchdowns overall and the sixth-most passing touchdowns to opposing offenses. The Raiders rank 27th in defensive dropback Expected Points Added (EPA) at .139 per play, and 27th in dropback success rate at 49.6%.

Meanwhile, Mahomes has thrown 18 touchdowns this season, tied for sixth among all quarterbacks.

The addition of RB Isaiah Pacheco back into the lineup should help relieve some of the pressure off the passing game. I look for the Chiefs to run a good amount of play action passes and incorporate a lot of two tight end sets to increase blocking. 

Even with Pacheco coming back, they will have to slowly work him back into the offense each week, so I look for Mahomes to continue his streak of passing touchdowns. He has thrown for at least two touchdowns in four of his last five games.

Note: Goblin picks reduce your payout on PrizePicks, as they are easier projections to hit.

🚨  Get the top CFB Picks for Black Friday — including Heisman-favorite Travis Hunter

Raiders TE Brock Bowers 6.5 Receptions — Less

This matchup is not ideal for the star rookie tight end. The Raiders have made the switch to QB Aidan O’Connell after Minshew broke his collarbone last week. Although O’Connell has shown some signs of progression, I find it hard to believe the Raiders will have much success on offense.

The Chiefs defense has been known to bring a lot of blitzes against different offenses. They have the second-highest blitz percentage in the league (34.9%) and the fourth-highest QB hurry percentage (10.3%). To control the pressure, the Raiders will have to ultimately keep Bowers in to block on multiple occasions, which will impact his pass catching opportunities.

In limited opportunities, I find it very unlikely O’Connell will get the ball in Bowers’ hands at such a frequent rate. I believe this game will turn out to be similar to the last time these teams played when Bowers only brought in 5 receptions.

TD Scorer Pick: Chiefs TE Noah Gray (Demon)

In the last two weeks, Chiefs TE Noah Gray has seen his role in the Chiefs offense grow tremendously over the last two weeks. On just 4 receptions in both of the last two weeks, Gray has collected two touchdowns in each game. Mahomes has looked his way consistently as they approach the red zone.

The Chiefs have also begun using a higher percentage of two tight end sets including Noah Gray in recent weeks. Last week, Gray was on the field for 59% of all offensive snaps, and he has consistently been above 60%. Moreover, Gray has played on at least 26 pass snaps in each of the last five games, including at least a 85% route participation rate — a bump from his pre-bye involvement.

I look for the Chiefs to lean on the passing game as Pacheco returns from injury and in doing so, Gray should have more scoring opportunities.

Note: Demon picks increase your payout on PrizePicks, as they are harder projections to hit.

Game Prediction: Chiefs 31, Raiders 14

This game should not be particularly close as the Raiders offense will struggle making the switch at quarterback. The lack of chemistry between the receivers and O’Connell I find to be too significant. The Chiefs on the other hand have been on a dominant streak outside of their loss to the Bills, so I look for them to keep this momentum going.

The Raiders’ defense will have to cause chaos and force multiple turnovers deep in the Chiefs side of the field if they want a chance to win. They will also have to find a way to counter the blitz and run the ball effectively to control time of possession.

The Chiefs should get out to a lead and ultimately control this game however they see fit. Anything can happen on any given day however and these divisional games can prove costly if teams aren’t careful.

Get Real Money Action on the NFL Black Friday Game

This Black Friday game should provide you with many ways to win big on PrizePicks. This Raiders vs. Chiefs matchup provides you with one dominant offense, but ultimately two very defensive-focused teams. Either way, you can be sure there will be a lot of excitement as the Chiefs look to clinch a playoff berth.

Whether you’re boosting your payout with a Demon pick, or staying safe with a Goblin pick, there are plenty of ways to put your NFL takes into action with projections on the PrizePicks board, including the discounted projections on the Black Friday board. 

Just pick more or less on two or more player projections, lock in your lineup, and enjoy as you watch your Lineup green out this holiday season.