Chiefs vs. Chargers Picks for DFS & PrizePicks: Week 4
The Chiefs will look to stay undefeated in Week 4 as they face the Los Angeles Chargers in their first AFC West divisional matchup of the season.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert (ankle) is questionable to play after a limited practice on Friday, meaning the Chargers offense could be a bit lacking in this game. That doesn’t bode well against a Patrick Mahomes-led offense in this afternoon matchup on CBS.
Below, we’ll get into our best picks for this Chiefs vs. Chargers showdown for DFS and PrizePicks to help you stay in the green on Sunday.
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Chiefs vs. Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Week 4
- Chiefs WR Rashee Rice 75.5 Receiving Yards — LESS
- Chiefs TE Travis Kelce 46.5 Receiving Yards — LESS
- Chargers WR Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards / Receptions — LESS
- Chiefs WR Justin Watson 15.5 Receiving Yards — MORE
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice 75.5 Receiving Yards — LESS
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice has struggled to consistently hit his receiving yard projections. In his last 20 games, he’s surpassed the 75.5-yard mark only six times, giving him a 30% success rate.
On the road, his numbers are even more concerning, achieving this projection just 3 times.
He’ll be up against a tough Los Angeles Chargers defense, which ranks in the top 10 in both passing yards allowed per game and yards per completion.
Rice is projected to match up with Jasir Taylor about 50% of the time in the slot. Taylor is having an excellent year, ranking 13th out of 99 graded slot cornerbacks this season, via PFF. This matchup presents a challenge for Rice in a game that Kansas City should control from the jump.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce 46.5 Receiving Yards — LESS
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is experiencing an uncharacteristic decline. This season, Kelce has failed to surpass 30 receiving yards in all three of his games.
Extending back to last season, Kelce has only managed to pass this projection of 46.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 20 games — a 30% success rate. His recent form suggests a continued struggle to meet expectations on the field.
Another key stat to monitor is Kelce's reception totals. While he has struggled with yardage this season, going back to last season, Kelce has surpassed his projection of 4.5 receptions in 14 of his last 20 games, giving him a 70% success rate.
However, this season, he has failed to exceed 4.5 receptions in all three games, further underscoring the concerns about his decline.
This drop in production, both in receiving yards and catches, is a critical factor to consider as Kelce continues to adjust in his age 35 season.
In addition, the Chargers linebackers are one of the best units in coverage this season, both ranking inside the top 15 in coverage. Not only will this hurt Kelce, but it could affect Rashee Rice in the slot.
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Chargers WR Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards / Receptions — LESS
Note: As of writing, Johnston’s receiving yards and receptions projections aren’t on the PrizePicks board, but keep an eye out for them once we get the official word on QB Justin Herbert’s ankle on Sunday — he’s officially questionable. Herbert is reportedly trending toward playing after limited practice on Friday.
Chargers WR Quentin Johnston had a tough rookie season, but he’s shown significant improvement this year. He currently is tied for the NFL lead with three receiving touchdowns and has caught 10 of his 14 targets.
However, it’s worth noting that these performances have come against weaker defenses. Today, Johnston faces a much tougher challenge in Chiefs' CB1 Trent McDuffie.
McDuffie has been outstanding this season, ranking as the eighth-best cornerback overall and 12th in coverage out of nearly 100 corners per PFF. When targeted, McDuffie is only allowing a 76 passer rating and has given up just 5-of-9 targets to be completed.
I believe we call that clamps.
What stands out is that teams are actively avoiding McDuffie, as he’s been targeted just nine times across three games and over 100 coverage snaps. This suggests that opposing offenses are reluctant to test Kansas City’s top corner, making this a challenging matchup for Johnston.
Chiefs WR Justin Watson 15.5 Receiving Yards — MORE
Chiefs WR Justin Watson is emerging as a reliable target for QB Patrick Mahomes as the WR3. Watson has exceeded his modest 15.5-yard receiving projection in 14 of his last 20 games (including 2-of-3 games this year) boasting a 70% success rate.
This week, he will draw coverage from Chargers CB Asante Samuel Jr., who is having a disappointing season, ranking 70th out of 99 cornerbacks in coverage. Samuel has allowed 10-of-15 targets to be completed against him, giving up an average of 10.2 yards per reception.
Watson's favorable matchup suggests he could continue his streak of solid performances. Samuel’s coverage may also give a boost to rookie WR Xavier Worthy, who is playing as the WR2 and has burner speed.
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