Dolphins vs. Packers: Thursday Night Football Picks for Thanksgiving
The Thursday Night Football showdown on Thanksgiving should close the day out strong, with a matchup in historic Lambeau Field featuring the Green Bay Packers and the Miami Dolphins. We’ve got Thursday Night Football picks and predictions for the Dolphins vs. Packers on Thanksgiving night below for NFL DFS and PrizePicks, including three picks to focus on.
Below, we’ll highlight some of the best picks for Thursday Night Football and a Touchdown Scorer Demon pick to boost your payout for what’s set to be a great matchup to wrap up the Thanksgiving NFL Games.
PrizePicks is offering a Tyreek Hill free pick for this Thanksgiving matchup; if Hill gets one receiving yard, you’ll cash his projection. It’s live on the NFL board until this game locks.
Don’t forget to head to the PrizePicks NFL board, lock in your Thursday Night Football picks by choosing more or less on player projections, and build your Lineup to get in on the real money NFL action.
Thursday Night Football Picks: Dolphins vs. Packers
Here are three of the top Dolphins vs. Packers picks on Thursday Night Football for NFL Thanksgiving, plus a full game prediction.
- Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith 42.5 Receiving Yards — More
- Packers RB Josh Jacobs 71.5 Rush Yards — More
- TD Scorer Prediction: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (Demon)
- Score Prediction: Dolphins 27, Packers 24
Dolphins vs. Packers on Thanksgiving: Time, TV, Location
Date: Thursday, November 28, 2024
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc.
TV: NBC/Peacock
Don’t look now but the once 2-6 Dolphins are now 5-6 and looking to grab a fourth straight win. The warm weather team will face a much harder task than their last three matchups on Thanksgiving night, as they roll into the chilly Lambeau Field to face the 8-3 Packers.
The Packers have also won a few in a row, and will look to ensure their playoff spot, as a win tomorrow would give them a 97% chance to make the playoffs, likely via the Wild Card.
The Dolphins will be far more desperate and potentially motivated however, as a loss will make them a longshot for the playoffs, but a win keeps them in the AFC Wild Card conversation.
A loss drops their chances to 14%, but a win increases their playoff chance to 36%.
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Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith 42.5 Receiving Yards — More
Let’s keep riding the hot hand with this first pick. Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith’s 188 receiving yards over the past two weeks are most among all tight ends, and good for fifth among all players. His 233 yards in the last three games are also good for first among tight ends.
Since his goose egg in Week 4, Smith has cashed this projection in six of seven in the following games. Additionally, his snap percentage in the last five weeks averages to 75.4%. The first five weeks he averaged being on the field just 38.2% of the time.
He is quickly becoming a staple to the Dolphins passing attack, and stepping into the vertical role they signed him for.
While Green Bay’s defense is solid, the Packers are banged up. CB Jaire Alexander, LB Edgerrin Cooper, and LB Isaiah McDuffie all missed Tuesday’s practice and look uncertain to play. Even when healthy however, they have allowed a tight end to go for more than 42 in 7-of-12 games on the season.
Smith is also incredibly effective and crucial to the Dolphins game. Receiving Success Rate is defined as a successful reception that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down. The denominator is targets. In this stat, Smith ranks 11th among all players, at 66.7%.
Give me QB Tua Tagovailoa to keep feeding his freak athlete of a tight end who’s averaging over 11 yards a catch on the season as their trust and rapport build. Smith is just one reception behind WR Tyreek Hill and seven above WR Jaylen Waddle this season.
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Packers RB Josh Jacobs 71.5 Rush Yards — More
Despite being overshadowed by standout performances from league-best running backs Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley on their new teams, Josh Jacobs has quietly excelled in his new home as well.
Currently, Jacobs ranks third in the league in rushing yards (944), trailing only Henry and Barkley. What sets Jacobs apart, however, is how hard he works for his production. He leads the league in rushing yards after contact (540) and is tied for fourth in yards per carry after contact at 2.7.
Additionally, Jacobs tops the league with 24 broken tackles and ranks second in the NFL with a broken tackle every 8.4 rushing attempts. He’s the type of runner who thrives on physicality, consistently running through defenders.
Jacobs has surpassed this projection in seven of 11 games this season, including each of his last five outings. Averaging over 85 rushing yards per game, he now faces a Miami defense on Thanksgiving that allows 106.9 rushing yards per game.
I expect Jacobs to continue his dominant streak on Thursday, hitting this projection for the sixth consecutive week.
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TD Scorer Prediction: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (Demon)
Positive regression lovers rejoice, this one’s for you. Through 11 weeks, fantasy managers and fans alike have been disappointed with the consensus top five fantasy pick. He has only scored three times — but I think he’s due for another.
The Packers are without excellent cornerback Jaire Alexander and may struggle to contain both the likes of WR duo Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Waddle had his emergence last week, which may alleviate some pressure and double teams off of Hill moving forward.
Here’s where the positive regression comes in. Despite only having three touchdowns on the season, Hill ranks tied for ninth in red-zone targets with 12 on the season. Last season, he had 24 total red-zone targets, and finished the season with a whopping 14 touchdowns. Of course, the red zone is only one of the ways that Hill can get in the end zone with his incredible speed.
Despite the drop in red-zone targets, he is still pacing well below where you would expect him to be at this point in the season, and I see him getting back on track as Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa continues getting more comfortable since his return, seen via his season high 40 passing attempts last week.
Tagovailoa also threw for three passing TDs for the first time this season in Week 11, only to then throw for four in Week 12. He is clearly regaining his confidence and composure — a great sign for Hill.
If I had to pick a Dolphin to score this week, it would have to be via Hill bounce back, and with it being a Demon that boosts the payout, it’s one I’ll gladly take. Reminder that this projection cannot be combined with the Hill free pick (0.5 receiving yards) special for Thanksgiving.
Note: Demon picks increase your payout on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: Dolphins 27, Packers 24
The Dolphins offense gives opponents so much to worry about; they’ve won three in a row, and I think this is the win they finally grab a close one to get over the hump. After losing to the Cardinals by one and the Bills by three, this is a potential one-possession game I can see them edging out.
If CB Jaire Alexander was healthy enough to lock down one of the many Dolphin’s weapons, I’d potentially feel different about this. Without him, this is a spot I’ll take an underdog to win, even with them being on the road. A close, high-scoring game would be a great way to end the slate of Thanksgiving NFL games, so I’ll look to get my post-feast nap in before this one kicks off.
Build Your Thursday Night Football Lineup on PrizePicks
Whether you’re going big with a Demon pick or staying safe with the Goblins, there’s no better way to add to the excitement of the Thanksgiving NFL Games of the day and Dolphins vs. Packers than building your ideal PrizePicks Lineup for Thursday Night Football
It’s the easiest way to get real money action on Thursday Night Football.
Just pick more or less on two or more player projections like the ones above, set your lineup, and lock in for Thursday Night Football. Keep coming back to the Playbook for more insights on NFL DFS all season long.
More NFL Thanksgiving Games Picks:
- Bears vs. Lions: NFL Thanksgiving Picks
- Giants vs. Cowboys: NFL Thanksgiving Picks
- The NFL Thanksgiving PrizePicks Lineup: Staff Pick-Six
- What NFL Games are on Thanksgiving 2024?
Other resources from PrizePicks:
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