Fiesta Bowl Picks: Penn State vs. Boise State Predictions for CFB Playoff

The 2024 College Football Playoff quarterfinals get kicked off with the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN as Penn State takes on Boise State for a spot in the semifinals. 

Boise State will return from its first-round bye as healthy as it’s been this year to one of its toughest tests of the year. Meanwhile, Penn State comes into this game expected to dominate this matchup.

Below, we’ll give you the best Fiesta Bowl picks and predictions for Penn State vs. Boise State for CFB DFS on PrizePicks, including the best player projections to target in this College Football Playoff game.

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Fiesta Bowl Picks for Penn State vs. Boise State

Here are the best picks for the 2024 Fiesta Bowl between #6 Penn State vs. #3 Boise State on Tuesday, December 31, in the College Football Playoffs for CFB DFS and PrizePicks.

• Boise St. WR Cam Camper 3.5 Receptions — More
• Penn St. TE Tyler Warren 6.5 Receptions — More
• Penn St. RB Drew Allar 1.5 Pass TDs — More
• Penn St. RB Nicholas Singleton 19.5 Yards Longest Rush — More
• Fiesta Bowl Prediction: Penn State 38, Boise State 20

Fiesta Bowl: Where to Watch Penn State vs. Boise State

Date: Tuesday. December 31, 2024

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.

Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+ (streaming)

Boise St. WR Cam Camper 3.5 Receptions — More

The former Indiana WR is the go-to in this passing offense, which will be much needed to keep the Penn State defense honest here. While I do think Boise State QB Maddux Madsen is going to struggle in general, when he does throw, expect him to go Camper’s way.

Camper has at least four catches in five of his last six games, including six receptions in two of his last four. Over that span, he leads the team in targets with 42. In the matchup with Oregon — the best pass defense that Boise State has faced — Caper had 4 receptions for 52 yards and a touchdown.

Look for Camper to get his in this matchup. For what it’s worth, WR LaTrell Caples receptions projection of 2.5 on PrizePicks is also worth a look, as he has just 11 targets less than Camper over that four-game span, and operated out of the slot with a slightly lower average depth of target.

Penn St. TE Tyler Warren 6.5 Receptions — More

Boise State has struggled to defend the middle of the field via the pass this year, and now they get one of the nation’s most dangerous weapons across the middle of the field in Penn State TE Tyler Warren. 

Per PFF, Warren has 62 catches (67% of total), 695 yards (63.4% of total), 4 TDs (of total six) in the middle of the field this season. He should eat against this defense in the middle of the field.

While Warren missed this receptions number in a blowout against SMU that got out of hand thanks to two interceptions touchdowns, QB Drew Allar only had to pass 13 times in that game. Prior to that, Warren had at least seven catches in six of his last eight games.

In what we can expect to be a bit more of a competitive game, Allar should reach this receptions number again.

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Penn St. RB Drew Allar 1.5 Pass TDs — More

Penn State QB Drew Allar didn’t throw for a touchdown in the team’s 38-10 win over SMU in the Playoff quarterfinals before he was benched late in the game. However, in games where Boise State scored at least 30 points this year, he averaged exactly two touchdowns per game, despite that zero-touchdown performance. In three of those games, Allar threw for three touchdowns.

Allar is set up for success here against a Boise State team that ranks 53rd in dropback expected points added (-018), per College Football Insiders.

I’m taking Allar’s passing touchdowns here because, while I expect Penn State to roll on offense, I’m concerned about the Nittany Lions leaning on the run later in the game in a potential blowout, which could limit his passing yards upside.

Penn St. RB Nicholas Singleton 19.5 Yards Longest Rush — More

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On the defensive side, this is the best possible Playoff matchup for running backs against a Boise State team that ranks 36th in rush defense Expected Points Added (-.043). The Broncos have also given up 17 rush plays of over 20 yards this year — tied for 75th in the nation.

In a game that the Nittany Lions should control, we can expect them to keep it on the ground a good bit and expect at least 11 carries for Singleton. Singleton is averaging 3.72 yards after contact per rush this year, per PFF, with a breakaway run percentage of 41.7%. 

Against this defense, Singleton should be able to bust at least one long run, likely much longer than this 19.5 yards number.

Fiesta Bowl Prediction: Penn State 38, Boise State 20

Penn State ran mega hot to get the matchups it did in the College Football Playoff — first against a SMU team that some believed didn’t deserve to be in the field, then against the only non-Power Four team to make it into the Playoffs.

To put it plainly, Boise State’s defense is going to get exposed here. While they kept UNLV in check in the Mountain West Championship, they haven’t faced an offense like Penn State all year long. I highly doubt this defense will be able to get stops here.

Some people might look at Boise State keeping it close earlier this year against Oregon in a 37-34 loss — which was impressive, but I find it hard to put much stake into that early-season matchup. Oregon’s offensive line wasn’t healthy, and QB Dillon Gabriel was getting familiar in a new offense. 

Unless Boise State can consistently get pressure on Allar — which seems unlikely — I don’t see how they put up a fight here. On the other side, I doubt Boise State QB Maddux Madsen’s ability to get chunk plays against this Penn State defense that is ninth in opponent Expected Points Added against the pass.

Madsen passed for only 148 yards with a 42.5% completion percentage against Oregon earlier this year, and then 209 and 158 yards in the two matchups against UNLV. For comparison, UNLV ranks 39th in dropback EPA. Those kind of numbers aren’t going to be enough to be successful here, especially if the Nittany Lions can force long third downs by loading the box to limit RB Ashton Jeanty on first and second downs.

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Get Real Money Action on the 2024 Fiesta Bowl

The College Football Playoff is heating up. At the end of New Year’s, we’ll have the final four teams set in the College Football Playoff, and the first one will be decided here.

The easiest way to get real money action on the Fiesta Bowl between Penn State and Boise State is on PrizePicks. Just pick more or less on player statistics like the ones above, set your Lineup, and get paid if you get your picks correct.

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