Jaguars vs. Bills: Best Monday Night Football Picks
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars will aim to bounce back in a thrilling Monday Night Football showdown against Josh Allen and the Bills. Expect a tight game filled with big plays, with both QBs fighting for a pivotal early-season win.
This Monday Night Football showdown between the Jaguars and Bills is set to be a memorable matchup, with plenty of opportunity for DFS picks on both sides of the ball. Doug Pederson’s Jaguars — who have started the year in disappointing fashion — might surprise Sean McDermott’s Bills.
The Bills may be favored, but the Jags are bound for a big bounce back game on Monday Night Football.
Below, we’ll break down the top DFS picks for Jaguars vs. Bills on Monday Night Football for PrizePicks.
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Where to Watch MNF: Jags vs. Bills
Date: Monday, September 23, 2024
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
TV: ESPN, NFL+, YouTube TV, Fubo
The Jaguars have a 10-9 all-time series lead on the Bills, and last year they duked it out in London as the Jags won 25-20 to take the advantage. This week might mark a similar result.
Bills QB Josh Allen will have a chance to keep his team rolling on primetime after the 2-0 start and an 11-day break. But will he be able to do enough to get the dub against Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence?
Let’s get into some picks to help you stay in the green on PrizePicks in Week 3.
Jaguars vs. Bills: Monday Night Football DFS Picks & Predictions
Bills QB Josh Allen — More than 30.5 Rush Yards
Josh Allen ran for 39 yards in Week 1, but had just 2 attempts for 2 yards in Week 2. So why is this pick here? It’s simple; RB James Cook did all the running needed in that game, finishing with 78 rushing yards on 11 carries against the Dolphins, as the Bills got off to an early 24-10 lead by halftime and never looked back.
Since the 2022 season, in the 22 one-possession Bills games, Allen has averaged 46.4 rushing yards per game. Allen has hit this rushing number in five of his last six games, including last year’s 74-yard and 72-yard rushing performances in the Playoffs.
With this game expected to be a close one, Allen will have to use his legs to try to win this game.
Buffalo Punter Sam Martin — More than 1.5 Punts Inside 20
A PUNTER?! Yes, but Sam Martin is no normal punter. Last year, in Week 17 against New England, he set a record with the most punts inside the 20-yard line in NFL history without punting outside the 20-yard line. He had six in that game.
With Jags defensive end Josh Hines-Allen on the other side — who is 2-0 against the Bills’ Allen — expect the Bills to be forced to punt a few times here.
Martin finished 2023 with 26 punts inside of the 20-yard line, with 46.4% of his punts landing inside the 20 (sixth amongst 33 qualified punters).
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Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. — More than 18.5 Longest Reception
Brian Thomas Jr. started his rookie campaign with a 14-yard TD and a 18-yard reception before the first half ended. He followed up Week 2 with a 66-yard catch.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is second among QBs with an 11.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT) through two games this year. Thomas is tied for ninth among receivers with a 16.3 yard aDO. It’s clear that when Thomas is downfield, Lawrence is looking in his direction — and the Jaguars have shown they're not afraid to air it out.
Take this Thomas pick with confidence as he continues to shine early in his rookie year.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence — More than 0.5 INT (Goblin Pick)
Given the Jaguars’ expectations here, you might think this pick doesn’t make sense, but in a close game, an interception becomes much more likely. Lawrence has yet to throw a pick this season after a year where he threw 15 INTs and was second in the NFL with 26 turnover-worthy throws, per PFF.
But his interceptions should regress here, as Lawrence has already thrown two turnover-worth throws this year, per PFF. In last year’s matchup vs. the Bills, Lawrence had three turnover-worthy throws — but none resulted in an interception.
Lawrence is due for one against a strong Bills pass rush that created three interceptions last week against the Miami Dolphins. And if you’re questioning — no, none of those were thrown by Skylar Thompson; they were all thrown by Tua Tagovailoa.
The Jaguars’ offensive line is in for a tough game against the Bills’ defensive front, led by Von Miller and Ed Oliver. Look for Lawrence to throw his first interception of the year here after throwing 15 last year.
Game Prediction: Jaguars 27, Bills 24
Week 3 will end with a nail-biter on Monday Night Football, with a thrilling game-winning drive led by none other than Trever Lawrence to get the Jags back on track and finally in the win column.
These two teams are both playoff contenders, and we may see them play each other in the postseason.
Build Your Monday Night Football Lineup on PrizePicks
The picks are in, and the Monday Night Football board awaits on PrizePicks. The Jaguars look to right the ship in a matchup between two top-tier quarterbacks.
Whether you think the Bills keep it rolling, or the Jags get in the win column, Monday night is your chance to get in on the real money action with PrizePicks. Simply choose more or less on two or more player projections, lock in your lineup, and stay in the green to cash out.
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