NFL Wild Card Sunday Night Football Picks for Commanders vs. Buccaneers

The 2025 NFL Playoffs are here, and Sunday’s Wild Card games wrap up with the Commanders vs. Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football tonight. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels leads the Commanders into Tampa to take on QB Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, in what promises to be an exciting game between explosive offenses.

Below, we’ll give you the best Sunday Night Football picks for the Commanders vs. Buccaneers showdown tonight in the NFC Wild Card Round for NFL DFS and PrizePicks, with kickoff set for 8 p.m. ET on NBC.

PrizePicks is the easiest way to win real money on Sunday Night Football tonight. There are plenty of stat projections and players on PrizePicks — from Mayfield’s passing yards to Daniels’ rushing yards — it’s the easiest way to make money with your takes for the game.

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Sunday Night Football Picks: Commanders vs. Buccaneers

Here are the top NFL Wild Card Weekend Sunday Night Football picks for the Commanders vs. Buccaneers game for NFL DFS on PrizePicks. 

• Commanders TE Zach Ertz 4 Receptions — More
• Buccaneers K Chase McLaughlin 1.5 FG Made — More
• TD Scorer Prediction: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans 
• Sunday Night Football Prediction: Commanders 32, Buccaneers 30

Commanders vs. Buccaneers: Preview, Where to watch

Date: Sunday, January 12, 2025

Time: 8 p.m. ET 

Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.

Where to Watch: NBC, Peacock 

This NFC Wild Card Showdown features the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7), who are hosting the Washington Commanders (12-5). Both offenses can be dynamic, as they have solidified stars at the quarterback and wide receiver positions. With both teams big underdogs to come out of the NFC to play in Super Bowl 59, this will be their chance to make a statement.

For the Commanders, a win here would do a lot for a franchise that has won one Playoff game since 2000 — coincidentally, it was a 17-10 win in Tampa Bay in the 2006 NFC Wild Card game. Even one win in Daniels’ rookie season would put a lot of hype behind this franchise for the years to come.

For the Bucs, this is a chance to carry their late-season momentum in a home game behind Mayfield, who has revitalized his career in Tampa.

We can expect offensive fireworks in this game, as both teams are top 10 in pass-rate over expectation, with the Bucs fourth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per pass, and the Commanders ranking sixth. There’s a real likelihood we see Mayfield and Daniels trade punches in this one.

Commanders TE Zach Ertz 4 Receptions — More

This matchup is ideal for Commanders TE Zach Ertz, who has been a go to target for the rookie phenom this season. Ertz averaged 3.88 receptions per game this season, but in recent weeks his production has increased in key games needed to secure their playoff spot, with six targets per game over the last two games. 

Ertz should continue his success here, as he has a key sense when it comes to finding open space in defenses.

Over his last two games, he has 11 receptions for 116 yards and 3 touchdowns. To make this matchup even more appealing, Tampa Bay allowed an average of 6 receptions and 67 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends and gave up 5 touchdowns to the position.

Look for Daniels to exploit this matchup and in clutch situations, look for the 12-year veteran who continues to show up.

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Buccaneers K Chase McLaughlin 1.5 FG Made — More

The Buccaneers have struggled at times over their last two games against divisional rivals that should've been easy to overcome. They now look to find some stability against a defense that has allowed the 11th most touchdowns in the league. 

The Commanders do a decent job at stalling drives in their own territory, so look for kicker Chase McLaughlin to take advantage of that. This year, the Commanders’ opponents are attempting 2.1 field goals per game.

The six-year vet has had 10 opportunities to cash this projection and has managed to hit two field goals in nine of those games. McLaughlin has been very efficient, making 30 of his 32 attempted field goals, with both misses coming from 50+ yards out.

The Buccaneers veteran has been a reliable option, and he’ll be needed on Sunday night in a game that could come down to a field goal.

TD Scorer Pick: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans

Bucs WR Mike Evans solidified himself as one of the most consistent wide receivers in NFL history last week, tying Jerry Rice’s record for most consecutive 1,000 yard seasons with 11. He’s now had 1,000 receiving yards in every season in his career in Tampa Bay. Look for the Buccaneers to try and ride this momentum after winning six of their last seven games to secure the NFC South.

The matchup against the Commanders does not lean towards moving the ball through the air. Washington allows the third least passing yards to opposing offenses while also allowing the third-most rushing yards.

There is one key matchup many eyes will be on this weekend however: Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore vs. Evans.

These two have gone back and forth in recent history while Lattimore was on the Saints, as they faced off twice a year, but Evans vows to be his best and avoid hurting the team. I believe in goal-line situations, the Bucs will attack Lattimore heavily as Evans will want to prove something against him. 

Evans has been key to the Bucs getting to this game in the first place. Over the last four games, Evans has averaged 10.5 targets per game, with four TDs in those four games.

In a key situation like a Wild Card playoff game, Evans should find the end zone against his nemesis as he looks to have a repeat of his Week 1 performance, where he scored twice. 

NFC Wild Card Sunday Night Football Prediction: Commanders 32, Buccaneers 30

This game will come down to the wire as both offenses should trade blows on Sunday Night Football. This game will ultimately come down to whether or not the Bucs can get their running game going with RB Bucky Irving and if they are able to eliminate Daniels’ dual threat ability to extend plays.

Being a relatively high-scoring game, this game will test Daniels mentally, but proving he can play with such poise under pressure like he has done over the last three weeks and in three comeback wins this season, I think he puts together a drive together in the last 3-4 minutes of the game to get past the Bucs.

I expect the Commanders to win a nail-biter as the defense has also proven that in crunch time, they can come through with stops.

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