Saints vs. Chiefs: Monday Night Picks for PrizePicks, DFS
Monday Night Football brings us an exciting showdown in Week 5 between the Saints and Chiefs — two Playoff contenders.
The Saints are on a two-game skid as they roll into an always dangerous Arrowhead Stadium to clash with the undefeated Chiefs on MNF.
The Chiefs, now without RB Isiah Pacheco and breakout WR Rashee Rice, will need someone to step up to fend off the dangerous Saints who are quickly melting to the bottom of the NFC South.
Below, we’ll highlight some of the best Monday Night Football picks for the Saints vs. Chiefs showdown for PrizePicks.
Don’t forget to head to the PrizePicks NFL board, lock in your picks, and set your Lineup to get in on the real money sports action.
Saints vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football: Time, TV, Location
Date: Monday, October 7th, 2024
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.
TV: ESPN
Saints vs. Chiefs: Monday Night Football Picks for PrizePicks
These are four Monday Night Football picks for the Chiefs vs. Saints showdown for DFS and PrizePicks.
- Saints WR Chris Olave 59.5 Receiving Yards — More
- Saints RB Alvin Kamara 67.5 Rush Yards — More
- Chiefs TE Travis Kelce 56.5 Receiving Yards — More
- Monday Night Football Prediction: Chiefs 24, Saints 20
Saints WR Chris Olave 59.5 Receiving Yards — More
After Week 1 against the Panthers, many were ready to write off Saints WR Chris Olave. 11 yards is no alpha WR1 stat line, but he quickly showed that was just a product of negative game script in the blowout win.
In the next game, another blowout in which Carr only had 11 completions, Olave managed to clear this projection with ease at 81 yards.
Through four games, only three Saints have more than six targets – WR Rashid Shaheed with 25, Olave with 24, and RB Alvin Kamara with 20. Between the two WRs, Olave has been far more effective in catches, with 20 receptions to Shaheed’s 15.
The Chiefs have allowed 67 yards or more to pass catchers in every game this season. The first two weeks to a TE, but the last two to a WR.
I see Olave clearing this projection for the fourth straight week due to how well he measures in separation. According to data.fantasypoints.com, when it comes to wide receivers who create “multiple steps of separation” at the highest rate, Olave leads the entire league.
For those wondering — Marvin Harrison Jr., Jameson Williams, and Malik Nabers make up the next three down the list.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara 67.5 Rush Yards — More
Before we take a deeper dive, Saints RB Alvin Kamara at age 29 has looked electric. He’s currently sitting at first overall in PPR league and averaging 81.4 rush yards a game heading into Week 5.
He’s cleared this projection all four weeks by an average of over 11 yards per outing.
Now getting into the meat of things, the Saints rank dead last in the NFL in pass rate. They run the ball a league leading 57% of their plays. They have and will continue to lean on Kamara until the wheels fall off.
The Chiefs rank in the middle of the pack in rushing defense, however they have looked better against RBs than QBs, with Lamar Jackson running for 122 on them in mind.
PrizePicks also has an Alvin Kamara Goblin projection on the board if you trust Kamara to get 39.5 Rush Yards and want to go the safer route. Kamara has cleared that goblin projection in 20 of his last 23 games, and every game this year.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce 56.5 Receiving Yards — More
Two weeks removed from me successfully picking less on Travis Kelce, due to team circumstances, game plan, and washed allegations, I’ve had a change of heart.
There is no doubting sophomore WR Rashee Rice emerged as that team’s go to guy, but due to his unfortunate injury, Kelce has to rekindle his once fully ignited flame with Mahomes. Add that to existing injuries to RB Isaiah Pacheco and WR Marquise Brown, and Kelce has to be a go-to in this game.
Last year, after a downturn in statistical performances, Kelce turned it on when his team needed him most in the playoffs, going for 70 yards or more in all four games. This time feels no different with this banged up Chiefs roster.
Mahomes will look for his guy early and often. Last week, Kelce had a 46.7% first read percentage from Mahomes, per Fantasy Points Data. He’s the go-to right now.
What pairs perfectly with being the first read is separation on routes. Kelce currently is tied for first with Dallas Goedert among all TE’s in average separation score for those who have run 80+ routes. If he keeps getting open, Mahomes will keep looking his way.
That’s two reasons to think Kelce will continue his bounce back and clear this projection for a second week straight. Kelce also made an appearance in our Week 5 touchdown scorer predictions, if you’re looking for another way to get action on Taylor Swift's boyfriend.
Monday Night Football Prediction: Chiefs 24, Saints 20
In what I see being a close one, the Chiefs will get it done and remain undefeated. Mahomes under Andy Reid has shown time and time again it doesn't matter who’s healthy, or who he’s throwing to or handing off to — the Chiefs can edge out a win.
The Saints offense has come crashing back to earth, with 36 points in their last two games after scoring 91 in their first two. The talent is still there, they just don’t appear to be firing on all cylinders the way they were in Weeks 1 and 2.
At home, even with no Rashee Rice, I don’t see the Chiefs losing their undefeated record.
Build Your NFL DFS Lineup on PrizePicks
There’s no better way to add to the excitement of Saints vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football than building your PrizePicks lineup to sweat during the game.
With plenty of player options on the board, just pick more or less on two or more player projections, set your lineup, and lock in for MNF. Keep coming back to the Playbook for more insights on NFL DFS all season long.
More Resources from PrizePicks
More Fresh Picks & Insights
