Saints vs. Falcons: 3 Best DFS Picks for Week 4
With both teams needing to bounce back after a loss last week, the Saints vs. Falcons showdown in Week 4 should be a heated NFC South battle.
The Saints — after looking like the best offensive team of the entire NFL through two weeks — returned back to earth in their 15-12 loss against the Eagles. The Falcons on the other hand failed on fourth down attempts in back-to-back drives deep in enemy territory to narrowly lose to the Chiefs, 22-17.
Below, we’ll highlight some of the best NFL DFS picks for the game including a goblin pick if you’re on the hunt for a safer pick on PrizePicks.
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Saints vs. Falcons: Time, TV, Location
Date: Sunday, September 29, 2024
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga.
TV: FOX
Saints vs. Falcons Picks for NFL DFS
- Saints WR Rashid Shaheed 6.5 Receptions Targets — LESS
- Falcons QB Kirk Cousins 0.5 Passing TDs — MORE (Goblin Pick)
- Falcons WR Darnell Mooney 41.5 Receiving yards — MORE
Saints WR Rashid Shaheed 6.5 Receptions Targets — LESS
Before you see this and think — didn't Rashid Shaheed have insane games in Weeks 1 and 2? You are right. He had 73 yards followed by 90 yards, with a touchdown in both. He only has 14 targets across three games this season.
Averaging 24.1 yards per reception this season, Shaheed has been the Saints' go-to deep threat option. Shaheed for deep, RB Alvin Kamara for short, and WR Chris Olave for anywhere in between has been the Saints bread and butter.
Last season Shaheed averaged 5 targets a game, this season he’s averaging 4.7.
Matchup wise, we shouldn’t see QB Derek Carr challenging the Falcon safeties too much Sunday.
On one side you have Jessie Bates, the No. 3 ranked safety in the league going into this season, who already has a NFC Defensive Player of the Week under his belt in 2024.
On the other side of the field you have Justin Simmons who through three games has looked superb. 101 coverage snaps for 16 yards allowed, with an interception and a pass break up – that’s a 6.3 passer rating allowed.
The Saints have been happy to keep the ball on the ground this year, ranking 29th in Pass Rate over Expectation, and they get utility tight end Taysom Hill back as well. Look for the Saints to go elsewhere with the ball versus the Falcons.
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Falcons QB Kirk Cousins 0.5 Passing TDs — MORE (Goblin Pick)
Even if QB Kirk Cousins isn’t fully back to his “you like that days”, he has looked plenty serviceable through three games. Even against the best defense in the league in Week 1, Cousins put a passing TD on the board.
Moreover, Cousins has a passing TD in every single game he's played in dating back all the way to November 2022. That’s 18 straight cashes for captain Kirk on this projection.
Before that woeful game, Cousins had rattled off 39 straight games with at least one passing touchdown. For those counting at home that’s one miss in the last 57 games he’s played.
That’s a goblin I can’t refuse taking, even against a stingy Saints defense.
Note: Goblin picks reduce your payout on PrizePicks, as they are easier projections to hit.
Falcons WR Darnell Mooney 41.5 Receiving yards — MORE
Falcons WR Darnell Mooney has been making a case as a legit fantasy football start. Mooney has 93%+ snaps every game this season, 7+ targets in back-to-back games, and he’s WR16 in fantasy football over the last two weeks.
WR Drake London and Mooney are forming a dynamic duo, and Cousins still has enough gas in the tank to support both.
Now some obscure stats for Mooney if you aren’t sold yet.
Mooney ranks 7th in the NFL by separation win rate on horizontally breaking routes. Saints love running man, this should lead to Mooney getting looks.
The NFL average WR separation is 2.96 yards. Last Sunday Mooney was averaging 5.31 yards, the next closest on the team being Drake London at 3.85 yards. Not only is Mooney getting open, he’s getting way more open than most receivers.
By consistently getting open and building chemistry with Cousins, Mooney has blasted through this projection in back-to-back weeks. I don’t see it slowing down at home versus the Saints.
NFL Week 4 Prediction: Falcons 20, Saints 17
Surprisingly, this rivalry dates back to 1967, and the Saints could take their first head-to-head lead Sunday since it was just 1-0. A win against the Falcons would give the Saints the edge at 56-55.
The Falcons opponents this season are a combined 8-1. The Saints opponents this season are a combined 4-5. I’m attributing the Saints insane start less to their own performance and more to the performance of their competition, and thus think the Falcons are the better team.
I faded the Falcons on Sunday Night last week, and they nearly proved me wrong after just coming up short in the two-minute drill. I see them getting it done this time at home, as Cousins continues to build confidence on his repaired Achilles.
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