How Saquon Barkley Can Win the Super Bowl MVP Award

While Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the favorite for 2025 Super Bowl MVP award — which would be his fourth Super Bowl MVP — there is a legitimate case for the favorite on the other side of the ball: Eagles RB Saquon Barkley. 

Below, we’ll take a look at Saquon Barkley’s path to the Super Bowl MVP award in Super Bowl 59, as well as the history of running backs winning the MVP.

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Why Could Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl MVP?

Barkley has had a season of dreams, revitalizing the RB position and showing the value of the position. He’s the favorite to win the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award at NFL Honors, three days before the 2025 Super Bowl, and for good reason.

Across the season he, so far, has managed:

• 8th all-time in regular season rush yards (2,005)
• 1st in TD runs of 60+ yards in regular season + Playoffs (7)
• 1st in Playoff rushes of 60+ yards (3)
• 2nd in rush yards in regular + Playoffs (2,447)

Coming into the Super Bowl, Barkley is now within striking distance of Hall of Fame RB Terrell Davis’ league record of 2,476 rushing yards in the regular season and Playoffs. All he needs in the Big Game is 30 rushing yards to cement his first year with the Eagles as one of the best ever and set the record. 

Barkley’s worst game all season was a 47 rushing yard affair, so 30 yards should be a shoe-in for a man who has been putting the Eagles on his back in the Playoffs. 

It’s been over 15 years since a running back’s rushing yards projection has been set over 100 in the Super Bowl, but Barkley is good enough to be the trend breaker. His projection on PrizePicks is currently set at 114.5 Rush Yards for the Super Bowl, a projection he has gone more than in five-straight games. 

The biggest hurdle in Barkley obtaining the Super Bowl MVP trophy may not even come down to his own performance, but his team’s as a whole. Voters have not been kind to those who perform well, but don’t do enough to secure the Super Bowl win. Below, we’ll cover everything you need to know about the Super Bowl MVP award.

Who decides the Super Bowl MVP?

The recipient of the Super Bowl MVP is decided by a panel of 16 NFL media members, composed of both football writers and broadcasters covering the game. There is also a fan vote with some swing power, though it is only worth 20% of the final say to the panel’s 80%. 

The NFL prefers having all the ballots in by the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter, but have communicated they are totally content to wait for the game to conclude, if that would drastically change the outcome of the vote.

What position usually wins the Super Bowl MVP?

The quarterback position has dominated when it comes to winning the MVP. Of all Super Bowl MVP winners, 33 have been a QB, followed by eight wins for wide receivers, and seven wins by running backs. All other positions make up for the other 11 wins, including nine on the defensive side.

Since Super Bowl XLI in 2007, a QB has won the award 13 times, with all other positions winning five awards, with zero coming from a RB since Terrell Davis in 1998.

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Does the Super Bowl MVP have to be on the winning team?

While the winning team doesn’t automatically claim the right to lift the MVP trophy along with the Lombardi, it’s incredibly rare for the losing team to get a Super Bowl MVP winner as a constellation prize. In the award’s 59 year history, only once has the game loser been the MVP, dating back to Chuck Howley of the Dallas Cowboys following a 13-16 loss in Super Bowl V (1971).

Who has won the most Super Bowl MVPs?

Tom Brady holds the record for most Super Bowl MVPs at five across his seven outings. In second at three MVPs we have Joe Montana — who is a Hall of Famer — and Patrick Mahomes, who will be looking to secure his fourth next week at just 29 years old. Brady won his fourth Super Bowl MVP at 39 years old.

Only six players have multiple Super Bowl MVPs and all were at the quarterback position. 

What does the Super Bowl MVP get?

The Super Bowl MVP used to get a car along with the Pete Rozelle trophy, but that marketing gimmick was axed back in 2015. The Pete Rozelle trophy is prestigious enough though that players are more than happy with that as compensation for their outstanding performance, but there is usually another award that comes their way, recognizable by its famous phrase. 

“I’m going to Disneyland!” is expected to come from every MVP as they are the recipient of a trip to Disneyland or Disney World — however they do have the power to give it to another player such as when Tom Brady awarded the trip to James White following SB LI. 

The tradition of the phrase being said began in 1987 with Giants QB Phil Simms and has happened every year since with the exception of 2005, as Super Bowl XXXIX did not go to commercial break following the conclusion of the game.

How could Saquon Barkley win the Super Bowl MVP?

Of the seven running back Super Bowl MVPs, they put up a combined 1,051 yards and 12 TDs in their games worthy of the award. On average that's 150 rush yards and 1.7 TDs. 

Barkley has had eight games of 146+ rush yards this season, and eight games of two or more touchdowns, so a 150-yard and 2-TD stat line is certainly not out of the question. The hardest part for Barkley en route toward a MVP, may just be getting the win against the Chiefs, who are looking to become the first ever team to three-peat. The Eagles are coming into the Super Bowl as slight underdogs. However, if they do pull off the win, it seems likely that Barkley could win the MVP.

Lastly, Barkley’s 28th birthday falls on the day of the Super Bowl. While it’s not any statistical boost, Barkley may be playing for a little something extra on his birthday.

Saquon Barkley Super Bowl Projections

Here are Barkley’s projections for the Super Bowl, according to PrizePicks.

• 22 Rush Attempts
• 116.5 Rush Yards
• 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs (Goblin)
• 26.5 Rush Yards in First 5 Attempts
• 25 Yards Longest Rush
• 1.5 Receptions (Goblin)
• 2.5 Receiving Targets
• 14.5 Receiving Yards
• 8.5 Yards Longest Reception
• 133.5 Rush+Rec Yards
• 20.5 Fantasy Score

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