SMU-Penn State College Football Playoff Picks, Predictions
What a Saturday it will be, with football throughout the entire day, including three 2024 College Football Playoff First Round games that promise plenty of excitement. It gets started with SMU vs. Penn State at 12 p.m. ET on TNT and streaming on Max.
Below we’ll look at the top College Football Playoff picks for SMU-Penn State in the first round, including Penn State QB Drew Allar and SMU QB Kevin Jennings, and their projections for this 12 p.m. kickoff game for Saturday, December 21.
Both SMU and Penn State truly benefit from this expanded playoff. #6 Penn State always seems to be one of the top-tier teams that finds itself just outside of the Playoff; now, with the expanded field, they have their chance. The same could be said for #11 SMU, a two-loss team this tournament.
For more college football picks and predictions throughout the College Football Playoff, stay tuned to the Playbook for predictions on all the bowl and CFB Playoff games.
College Football Playoff Picks: SMU-Penn State
Here are the top College Football Playoff picks and player predictions for #11 SMU vs. #6 Penn State in the First Round showdown for CFB DFS on PrizePicks for Saturday, December 21. Click each pick to read more analysis.
- Penn State QB Drew Allar 15.5 Rushing Yards — More
- Penn State TE Tyler Warren 6.5 Receptions —More (Demon)
- SMU QB Kevin Jennings 247.5 Pass+Rush Yards — More
- TD Scorer Prediction: SMU RB Brashard Smith (Goblin)
Penn State QB Drew Allar 15.5 Rushing Yards — More
Penn State QB Drew Allar announced he would hold off on the NFL Draft for one more year and return to Penn State in 2025. He put up some of his best numbers this season, with a career-high of 2,897 passing yards and a 69.1 completion percentage.
This was also one of his better seasons on the ground, with 279 rushing yards on 3.9 yards per carry. This is a very generous projection, and he’s hit it in seven games this season. SMU has a lockdown secondary and an excellent pass rush, so there will be times when Allar has to tuck it and take off to get a positive play.
Penn State TE Tyler Warren 6.5 Receptions — More (Demon)
What a fantastic year for Penn State TE Tyler Warren, who won the Mackey Award, awarded to college football’s best tight end. When draft season heats up, you will hear his name a lot.
He finished 15th in the nation with 1,062 receiving yards on 12.1 yards per catch. He burned through the spotlight when he had 17 catches and a 224-yard performance against USC.
SMU is a good defense, but Allar has trusted Warren all season, especially recently, with at least six catches in seven of the final eight games. He’s a receiver who is comfortable lining up wide or in the slot and has a dynamic route tree.
While he will take some routes outside toward the sideline, he lives in the middle of the field and doesn’t mind catching the ball in traffic. There will be a lot of moments where the Nittany Lions need a big play, and Warren will be the go-to.
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SMU QB Kevin Jennings 247.5 Pass+Rushing Yards — More
Penn State is an excellent defense, but is hasn’t seen a quarterback like SMU’s Kevin Jennings. He took the job early in the season and never gave it back. It’s because he can beat you with his arm and legs; the Mustangs finished the season ninth in dropback EPA (0.123) and 39th in rush EPA (0.037).
Penn State will have to figure out how to lock down all the pass catchers and have a spy to keep Jennings from breaking off a long run.
Penn State has one of the best defenses in the country, with a 91.0 PFF defensive grade (18th), but SMU’s 84.1 PFF offensive grade is also 18th. Jennings will be able to have his moments.
TD Scorer Prediction: SMU RB Brashard Smith (Goblin)
If the Nittany Lions only had to stop Jennings and his dual-threat abilities, then Penn State might be fine, but they also have to worry about Smith. This guy ran like a Mustang and finished 17th with 1,270 on 5.9 yards per carry. He's the best college running back that you've probably never heard of.
More importantly, you could count on him to get into the end zone. He had the 11th-most rushing touchdowns (14) and found the end zone in 10 of 13 games, including each of the final six. He’s a bruiser who will go up the gut and force multiple defensive players to take him down; he averaged 3.5 yards after and forced multiple missed tackles in ten games.
When SMU gets within ten yards, you better believe Smith will get the rock.
Make College Football Playoff Picks on PrizePicks
We’ll see three games on Saturday, including SMU vs. Penn State, but that’s just the start of a loaded Saturday for football.
Use these SMU vs. Penn State player picks to help you make your CFB DFS Lineups on PrizePicks. When you combine these picks, it allows you to build a lineup to 7.5x your money!
You can win real money on PrizePicks throughout the bowl season and College Football Playoff by choosing more or less on player projections. Pick more on Demon projections to win up to 1000x your money.
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