Texans vs. Chiefs: NFL Divisional Round Picks and Predictions

The Chiefs are playing their first game of the playoffs on Saturday against the Houston Texans, in what should be an exciting AFC Divisional Round matchup between the defending Super Bowl Champions and Texans star QB C.J. Stroud.

Below, we’ll give you the best NFL Divisional Round predictions and picks for Texans vs. Chiefs for NFL DFS on PrizePicks. The game is set to kickoff at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, airing on ESPN and ABC. The winner will advance to the AFC Championship next Sunday.

Stroud and the Texans defense advanced to this matchup by knocking off Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round. Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs’ stars had a bye and should be well-rested, having not played a game in almost three weeks, since they also sat out Week 18. 

PrizePicks is the easiest way to win money with your NFL takes throughout the NFL Playoffs. Just pick more or less on player stat projections — like Mahomes’ passing touchdowns or Stroud’s rushing yards — and cash out if your picks are correct.

To lock in picks for this AFC Playoff matchup, head to PrizePicks and choose more or less on at least two players after you check out the picks and predictions for Texans vs. Chiefs.

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Divisional Round Football Picks: Texans vs. Chiefs

Here are the best NFL DFS picks on PrizePicks for the Texans vs. Chiefs Divisional Round Playoff matchup, plus a game prediction. 

• Texans QB C.J. Stroud 243.5 Pass+Rush Yards — More
• Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes 34.5 Yards Longest Completion — More
• Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy 4.5 Rush Yards — More
• AFC Divisional Round Prediction: Chiefs 34, Texans 14

🔥 Find picks for the Commanders vs. Lions Saturday Night Divisional Round game here.

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Texans QB C.J. Stroud 243.5 Pass+Rush Yards — More

The Texans QB had a rough start to last week’s playoff game, but still managed to pull out a win against the Chargers. In that game, Stroud ended up with 282 passing yards and 42 rushing yards, showing his effectiveness in the run and pass game against a Chargers’ defense that finished fifth in expected points added. 

In his last game against the Chiefs under a month ago, Stroud had 267 Pass+Rush yards, which is well over his projection for this weekend. He was on pace for far more before the Texans’ suddenly lost WR Tank Dell, which deflated the offense.

Kansas City’s defense ranks 17th in the league in EPA per play and is 15th in the league in success rate, so stringing together big plays shouldn’t be hard to do against this defense.

If Stroud wants to continue rolling through the playoffs, he will need to continue helping out in the rush game and pass consistently, just as he did last week.

Stroud has performed decently against this Kansas City team already this season and it’s possible he cashes this pick with just his passing yards this weekend.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes 34.5 Yards Longest Completion — More

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has been able to rest for over three weeks, which could be very dangerous for the Texans on Saturday.

Mahomes is 15th in the league in passes for over 30+ yards with 15 this season. He’s aired the ball out multiple times throughout the season, and his offensive weapons also help add to that number.

Chiefs’ players like Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy are threats to break tackles and rack up yards after contact, which they’ve done for the Chiefs all season. 

With Brown back in the Chiefs lineup, Mahomes has cashed this projection twice. Worthy is 17th in the league amongst receivers in yards after contact as a rookie, while TE Travis Kelce is 13th in the league amongst tight ends.

Mahomes will be looking for his offensive weapons down the field this week as look to send the Texans’ packing without any trouble, like they did in the regular season.

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Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy 4.5 Rush Yards — More

Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy has played a small role in the Chiefs rushing game throughout the season, recording only 20 carries, but is still worth adding to your Lineup, as coach Andy Reid seems set on getting the ball into Worthy’s hands in any way possible.

Worthy has cashed his rushing yards projection in four of his last five games, and also has at least five yards rushing in 11 of the 12 games he recorded a rushing attempt. Over his last five, Worthy is averaging 1.8 rushing attempts per game.

The Chiefs WR is averaging 11 rushing yards through his last five games and 5.2 yards per game on the season. 

The Chiefs have incorporated Worthy into trick plays and jet sweeps due to his speed, and has proven to be effective when the Chiefs need to pick up a few yards. 

This projection is cash almost every week on PrizePicks, which is why it’s one of the most popular picks for the Divisional Round. That shouldn’t change as the Chiefs will need to stay creative with their playbook to stay alive in the playoffs.

AFC Divisional Round Prediction: Chiefs 34, Texans 14

This should be an easy game for the Chiefs, who are coming off an extended break and will have plenty of energy against an inferior opponent. 

The Texans’ have already lost to the Chiefs once this season, and don’t seem to have improved as a team since then, though they are a bit healthier on the defensive end. While the Texans healthy defensive front chewed up the Chargers’ offensive line in the Wild Card Round, it’s hard to expect the same here, as Mahomes in Reid’s offense will get the ball out fast, creating less opportunities for the Texans’ defense.

Houston’s flaws and inconsistencies will catch up to them in this game and it could be a blowout. The Chiefs will roll over the Texans in what could be a high-scoring game for the Chiefs and a very low scoring one for the Texans against a healthy Chiefs defense.

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Lock in Your NFL Saturday Lineups on PrizePicks

The defending Super Bowl champs will look to continue their run for a threepeat this weekend in the Divisional Round, as the Chiefs take on the Texans on Saturday. PrizePicks can help you get in on the real money action.

With PrizePicks, it’s never been easier to cash in on your NFL takes. Just pick more or less on player stat projections — like the ones above — and lock in your Lineup to get paid. The more you pick, the more you can win if your picks are correct.

The Playbook has more NFL Playoff picks and predictions if you’re looking for more insights for the NFL Divisional Round.