The NFL Thanksgiving PrizePicks Lineup: Our Staff’s Pick-Six
‘Tis the season for Friendsgiving. If you’re not familiar with Friendsgiving, everyone brings a dish to a party, and everyone feasts.
We’re doing the same thing here; six members of the Playbook staff will give their favorite picks, bringing together a Pick-Six Lineup for you to feast on.
We asked each member of our staff to highlight their favorite projections on the PrizePicks board for the NFL Thanksgiving Games to build our Friendsgiving PrizePicks Lineup. With this Lineup, you can reach a 24x payout with six correct, 2x with five correct, or 0.4x with four correct on PrizePicks.
Let’s get into the Thanksgiving NFL game picks, starting with two picks from the Bears vs. Lions game, followed by two from Giants vs. Cowboys, and two for Thursday Night Football.
Don’t forget to use the Tyreek Hill free pick on Thanksgiving Day — Hill only needs one yard for the pick to win! It’s available now on the NFL board until lock.
Supi’s Pick: Lions QB Jared Goff 249.5 Pass Yards — Less
The good thing about the Lions offense is they can beat you on the ground and air as they are first in dropback success rate (52.9%) and second in rush success rate (45.8%). This should be a game where they depend on Sonic and Knuckles (Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery) to move on the ball.
Chicago is coming in with one of the best pass defenses in the league and are seventh in dropback EPA (-0.042) while they are 20th in rushing EPA (-0.064). The game script will keep Goff’s contributions minimal. Though Goff has gone more than this number in his last two games, he has gone less than this in the previous three.
🏈 Get the full Bears vs. Lions picks for NFL DFS here.
Noel’s Pick: Lions RB David Montgomery 53.5 Rush Yards — More
In Montgomery's two games against the Bears since moving on from Chicago, he has hit this projection twice with 76 and 66 yards respectively. Currently, the Bears are in the bottom half of the league in terms of rush yards allowed per game, sitting 13th at 129.7.
On Thanksgiving, he'll want to show out once again vs. the Bears and score here, and he should get ample opportunity to do some.
Note: Monitor Montgomery’s injury status before the game. Head coach Dan Campbell says he will play. If you want to avoid any injury risk, swap in Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards here.
Austin’s or Supi's Pick: Malik Nabers 6.5 Receptions or 65.5 Receiving Yards
You can only add a player to your Lineup once, so choose either Nabers' receptions or receiving yards based on the analysis below.
Austin's Pick: Malik Nabers 6.5 Receptions — More
Last week, the New York Giants struggled heavily against a Buccaneers' defense that is bottom 10 in opponent completion percentage. A large part of their offensive struggles had to do with the loss of their left tackle, Jermaine Eluemenor. The Giants allowed a 78% blitz rate against Tampa Bay. If able to control pressure from players like Micah Parsons, then the Giants should find more success through the air.
The Giants also struggled offensively because Nabers did not register a target in the first half. Although he caught his first target in the second half, a majority of his receptions did not come until the fourth quarter. After the game, Nabers spoke out against the offense to the media, showing frustration with not getting the ball which made headlines.
Nabers over the course of the season has averaged 11.44 targets per game. In his last game against the Cowboys, he also brought in 12 receptions off 15 targets. Due to his previous frustration, I look for QB Drew Lock to get Nabers the ball early and often against their division rivals.
🏈 Get the full Giants vs. Cowboys picks for NFL DFS here.
Mike’s Pick: Malik Nabers 65.5 Receiving Yards — More
The Giants have already turned their attention towards next season by releasing QB Daniel Jones. Giants QB Tommy DeVito made his first start of the season last week, throwing for 189 yards against the Buccaneers. However, he is now unlikely to play on Thanksgiving, opening the door for QB Drew Lock to start in his stead.
The Giants were down big by halftime and were blown out yet again. Their offense produced just seven points. Giants WR Malik Nabers was not targeted in the first half. He was then targeted nine times in the second half, which helped him finish with six receptions for 64 yards.
Locker room comments by Nabers after the game indicated his frustration for not being involved more early. Giants head coach Brian Daboll was quoted Monday as saying that he needs to find a way to get Nabers involved more at the start of games. With the potential for plenty of targets coming his way, Nabers could blow past this projection.
Christian’s Pick: Cooper Rush 207.5 Pass Yards — More
In all three of Rush’s starts so far, his pass projections are just too low. For starters, Rush is a middle of the road quarterback, but he isn’t awful like his projections imply. He was solid in 2022 and he is now.
Rush isn’t often going to win his team the game, but he isn’t going to be so bad he loses it, either. In 2022, he went five starts before he threw an interception (then he threw three in one game), and he’s only thrown one across his two starts this year.
Secondly, do people forget the Cowboys flat out cannot run the ball? They don’t have any RB talent and they don’t have the line to create space. The Cowboys are averaging an abysmal 82.5 rushing yards per game — ranked 31st in the league. That forces Rush to throw it, and he’s good enough to top this number when he’s throwing the ball 30 times a game.
Rush has gone more than this passing yards number in five of his seven starts. Even last week, in a game Dallas mostly maintained a lead in, Rush threw 32 times. It’s an easy more than for me here.
This number started under 200 this week, and has since rose to 207.5. I'm comfortable taking it up to 219.5, or take the 224.5 demon if you're feeling bold.
Ryelan’s Pick: RB Josh Jacobs 71.5 Rush Yards — More
Overshadowed by the likes of RBs Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley’s performances on their new teams, RB Josh Jacobs has been nothing short of excellent in his new home as well.
In fact, Jacobs currently ranks third in rushing yards (944) only behind the two aforementioned men. The difference however is that Jacobs, by measurable amounts, has to work harder for his yards. This is displayed via his league leading 1st in rush yards after contact (540), and tied for 4th in yards per carry after contact at 2.7.
Jacobs also leads the league in broken tackles at 24, and is second in the NFL in rush attempts per broken tackle at 8.4. Jacobs is a guy that will run through you.
He has cleared this projection in 7-of-11 games this season, including in each of his last five. He’s averaging over 85 rush yards a game and on Thanksgiving gets a Miami defense that allows 106.9 rush yards a game.
I see Jacobs continuing to run over the opposition on Thursday and cashing this projection for a sixth-straight week.
🏈 Get the full Dolphins vs. Packers picks for NFL DFS here.
Free Pick: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill 0.5 Receiving Yards — More
PrizePicks is offering a Tyreek Hill free pick for the NFL Thanksgiving Games on Thursday Night Football. Add the free square to your Lineup and cash it if Hill gets at least one receiving yard in the game. One pick, one win. It's that easy.
Hills was also a TD scorer prediction in our Dolphins vs. Packers picks, as he looks set for a get right game in Lambeau Field.
Get Thanksgiving NFL Action on PrizePicks
Thanksgiving isn’t just about the food; it’s about bringing everyone together for a feast. With our Pick-Six Lineup using these picks, you’ve got everything you need to lock in for the Thanksgiving NFL action.
From Tyreek Hill’s free pick to our favorite picks on the board, it’s all here to help you eat on PrizePicks this Thanksgiving.
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