Thursday Night Football Picks for Broncos vs. Chargers, NFL DFS
Thursday Night Football brings us an AFC West division rivalry tonight between the Denver Broncos (9-5) and Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) — two teams with their eyes set on the Playoffs — at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video
We’ve got the top Thursday Night Football picks for Thursday Night Football between the Broncos and Chargers for NFL DFS on PrizePicks, including our favorite touchdown scorer pick.
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Let’s get into this Thursday Night Football showdown between the Broncos and Chargers.
Thursday Night Football Picks for Broncos vs. Chargers
Here are the top picks for Thursday Night Football tonight, Broncos vs. Chargers, for NFL DFS, including a TD scorer prediction.
- Thursday Night Football Prediction
- Broncos QB Bo Nix 1.5 Pass TDs — More (Demon)
- Chargers WR Ladd McConkey 79.5 Receiving Yards — More (Demon)
- Chargers K Cameron Dicker 7.5 Kicking Points — More
- TD Scorer Prediction: WR Courtland Sutton
Thursday Night Football: Where to Watch Broncos vs. Chargers & Preview
Date: Thursday, December 19
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: Prime Video (Amazon Prime Subscription required)
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif. (roof)
The Broncos go on the road to take on the Chargers in Los Angeles, in a battle between one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert, and an up-and-comer in Broncos’ Bo Nix. This game has some playoff implications, as the Broncos (9-5) are one game ahead of the Chargers (8-6) in the AFC Wild Card, though both teams are set to make the Playoffs and play a road game in the Wild Card round.
The Chargers are coming off a 40-17 loss to the Buccaneers, where they completely fell apart in the second half after Herbert fought through an ankle injury. It was their third loss in four games, albeit to three playoff teams.
Though Herbert did not have an injury designation at Wednesday’s practice, you have to be concerned about his productivity here after he simply could not move around the pocket down the stretch against the Bucs. Herbert said this week: “It’s definitely painful enough to be able to miss a practice” and mentioned it’s better than his early season ankle injury, which he played on the following week — although he is on short rest here.
Herbert will also be missing security blanket TE Will Dissly, who is out. WR Quentin Johnson (ankle) missed Monday’s practice, but doesn’t carry an injury designation in the game.
A lack of explosive passing from Herbert becomes especially problematic for the Chargers as they are one of the worst rushing offenses in the league. Since Week 8, the Chargers are 29th in rushing success rate, and now face a Broncos defense that ranks 1st in defense rushing success rate. (31.6%) over that same span.
The Chargers have been happy to abandon the run entirely though — they had 11 RB rushes last week, 18 vs. the Chiefs (30 passes), and 11 vs. the Falcons (24 passes).
The Broncos offense, despite solid results, has been stumbling recently, with a -14.3% pass DVOA over its last three games. Nix has 4 touchdowns to 5 interceptions in those games. The rookie has continued to struggle when he’s pressured this year, with a 58.4 rating when pressured, versus a 95 rating when kept clean.
The Broncos also cannot run the ball. They’re dead last in rushing success rate since Week 8 (32.6%) and 27th in rushing Expected Points Added (-.161). The backfield is a mess; RB Javonte Williams is getting around 50% of the snaps but has averaged 2.6 yards per carry over his last three games, with Audric Estime splitting carries behind him. None of the running backs are real fantasy options here.
Look for both teams to go pass-heavy here, as the Broncos ranked 7th in pass-rate over expectation, while the Chargers are 14th in the same stat — but have become more one-dimensional recently after the injury to RB1 J.K. Dobbins.
With both teams already likely in the Playoffs as Wild Card teams, and Herbert dealing with his ankle injury, I do have some concerns that both teams could turn conservative. However, I still learn toward both teams airing it out in a division rivalry and putting plenty of points up.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: Chargers 27, Broncos 24
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Broncos vs. Chargers Picks for PrizePicks
Below, find three of the top Thursday Night Football picks for Broncos vs. Chargers for NFL DFS on PrizePicks tonight.
Broncos QB Bo Nix 1.5 Pass TDs — More (Demon)
As stated above, the Broncos don’t have a run game. I cannot understate how ineffective their run game has been. It’s especially ineffective around the red zone; Broncos running backs account for just one touchdown over the last seven games, where they have averaged 27.3 points per game.
With no standout back, the scoring has been left to QB Bo Nix, who leads all rookie QBs with 20 passing touchdowns. In what could potentially turn into a shootout — dependent on the health of Justin Herbert — expect the Broncos to again lean on Nix to score here.
While I have concerns about Nix against pass rush, the Chargers aren’t particularly strong at rushing the passer, ranking 15th on PFF with a pass rush grade of 68.4.
Other QB Option: Justin Herbert + Bo Nix 453.5 Pass Yards (Combo) — More
Chargers WR Ladd McConkey 79.5 Receiving Yards — More (Demon)
The Broncos are down CB Riley Moss, which is already going to cause problems in their secondary — without him, Browns QB Jameis Winston passed for 497 yards. But more importantly, they are incredibly vulnerable at the slot position, where CB Ja’Quan McMillian (90% of snaps in the slot) will matchup with Chargers WR Ladd McConkey (70% of snaps in the slot).
McMillian is giving up 1.59 yards per route run against in the slot, per PFF — third worst among CBs with at least 209 slot snaps. McConkey is putting up .51 points per route run — fifth-best among predominant slot receivers. McMillan has given up 66 catches this year, the most on the team, including an astounding 328 yards after catch.
McConkey is averaging a target on every four routes run this season, so the volume should continue to be there for him to have a big game. He has at least six targets and 80+ yards in three of his last four games.
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Chargers K Cameron Dicker 7.5 Kicking Points — More
Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker has only missed one FG under 50 yards at home in his three-year career with the Chargers. He’s hitting 93.5% of his field goals this year, so you can count on him to make his kicks when he gets the opportunity.
The Broncos are considered a “bend-but-don’t-break” defense that is second in forcing red-zone field goals, with 58.9% of opponent’s red-zone drives resulting in field goals. That number jumps to 64.6% when they are on the road.
In Dicker’s last matchup with the Broncos, he had 11 kicking points, hitting three field goals and two extra points. Dicker has at least nine kicking points in four of his last five games. With one of the best quarterbacks in the league in what should be a close game, Dicker should get plenty of opportunities here.
If you’re looking to go safer, opt for more on Dicker’s FG Made square, at 1.5 on PrizePicks.
Note: Kicking points represent all points scored by a kicker. 3 points for a FG. 1 point for an extra-point.
TD Scorer Prediction: Broncos WR Courtland Sutton
As mentioned in the Nix write up, it’s clear the Broncos want to pass the ball, especially in high-leverage situations. When they do, Sutton is getting targeted on 23% of his routes this year, and 25.7% since Week 10.
Sutton is fifth among all WRs in red-zone targets with 19 on the year. Next on the team is WR Troy Franklin, with seven. If the Broncos get near the end zone, you can almost guarantee Sutton to get at least one look — and that’s more than you can say for anyone else in this game.
Sutton has scored in three of the last five games, with four touchdowns over that span, and also scored a touchdown against the Chargers earlier this year on four catches.
Lock in Thursday Night Football Picks on PrizePicks
We’re in for an exciting showdown between the Broncos and Chargers on Thursday Night Football, as both teams should lean pass-happy in this matchup. Use the picks above to build your PrizePicks Lineup.
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