Week 16 NFL DFS Picks, Predictions & Top Matchups For Main Slate
With the regular season winding down, all 32 NFL teams will take the field during Week 16. There is still a bit of a unique schedule this week, with two games set to be played Saturday in preparation for the NFL Christmas Day games on Netflix.
Let’s dig into some of the best NFL DFS picks for Week 16 by highlighting some of the top projections to target on PrizePicks for Sunday’s games.
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NFL Week 16 Picks for DFS & PrizePicks
- NFL Week 16 Injury Report + Notes
- Week 16 Pass Defense to Target
- Week 16 Run Defenses to Target
- Week 16 DFS Picks
Week 16 NFL DFS Injury Report
These are the injuries to monitor for NFL DFS for Week 16, including players who will get additional opportunities this week.
Lions RB David Montgomery (Knee) Out For Season
The Lions have suffered numerous injuries on defense. Now they have lost RB David Montgomery (knee) for the rest of the season. That should result in a leading role for Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs, who had 134 total yards and two touchdowns against the Bills last week. He has been excellent during his sophomore campaign, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and should finish the season as one of the best fantasy options every week.
Browns RB Nick Chubb (Foot) Lost For Season
Browns RB Nick Chubb is hurt again. He broke his left foot against the Chiefs last week, meaning that he will miss the final three weeks of the season. That will result in added opportunities for Browns RB Jerome Ford, who ran the ball seven times for 84 yards and a touchdown last week. Ford underwhelmed when Chubb missed time earlier this season, rushing for 264 yards and one touchdown over six games.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith Practices Wednesday
Seahawks QB Geno Smith was forced out of Week 15’s matchup with the Packers because of a knee injury. He seems to have avoided a serious injury and there is a chance that he might not miss a game. He practiced in full on Wednesday, which is a positive sign.
The Seahawks have also played the last two games without RB Kenneth Walker III (calf), who did not practice on Wednesday. Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet has recorded three touchdowns over the last two games without Walker.
Raiders Have Key Injuries On Offense
The Raiders will be on a short week after losing to the Falcons on Monday. Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell (knee) did not play in that game and Raiders RB Sincere McCormick left early with an ankle injury and did not return. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce said Tuesday that O’Connell is trending towards playing. McCormick is expected to be out for the season, so RB Alexander Mattison and RB Ameer Abdullah should split carries for the Raiders moving forward.
Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (Knee) Uncertain vs. 49ers
Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle suffered a knee injury against the Texans after logging just 24 offensive snaps. While he seems to have avoided a long-term injury, he might not be able to take the field in time for Week 16 against the 49ers after he didn’t practice on Thursday. Dolphins WR Malik Washington received a season-high six targets last week with Waddle going down early, which he turned into five receptions for 52 yards.
Chiefs Activating WR Marquise Brown (shoulder)
The Chiefs have been without WR Marquise Brown all season with an injury that has dragged out longer than initially expected. However, he is expected to make his season debut on Saturday against the Texans. It’s a much-needed boost to the Chiefs receiving corps, which has been led by rookie WR Xavier Worthy all season.
49ers RB Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) Unlikely to Play
The 49ers are down another running back, as Isaac Guerendo is unlikely to play this Sunday. The rookie missed Wednesday’s practice. Look for Patrick Taylor to lead the 49ers backfield, but the carries should be split, with Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Israel Abanikanda also getting in the mix.
Other NFL Week 16 Injuries for DFS
- Giants QB Tommy DeVito suffered a concussion last week against the Ravens, putting his status in doubt moving forward. Giants QB Drew Lock was dealing with a heel injury, so QB Tim Boyle took over under center. He threw for 123 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. It is still uncertain who will start for the Giants when they take on the Falcons. Whoever it is will be an underwhelming option in DFS.
- Browns TE David Njoku (hamstring) was unable to take the field against the Chiefs last week, marking his fourth missed game of the season. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said Monday that he is hopeful that Njoku can return for Week 16, but he did not practice on Thursday. The Browns could certainly use him given that Chubb is no longer an option at running back. In two games prior to his injury, Njoku had amassed a whopping 30 targets. He will have a new quarterback though, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson taking over for Jameis Winston.
- Commanders TE Zach Ertz was forced out of last week’s game against the Saints with a concussion. He entered the matchup having recorded a touchdown reception in each of his previous three games. Behind him on the depth chart is Commanders TE John Bates, who has never surpassed 20 receptions in a season. If Ertz is out, expect the Commanders to rely more on their wide receivers, rather than Bates.
- Panthers WR Xavier Legette is considered as week-to-week with a groin injury that should sideline him for at least Week 16. Panthers WR Jalen Coker received six targets last week with Legette getting hurt early, which he turned into four receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown. Expect Coker to remain more involved moving forward.
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins did not practice on Thursday with a knee injury. That puts his status in doubt for Sunday. If he doesn’t play, look for WR Jamarr Chase to be peppered with targets.
NFL Week 16 Pass Defenses to Target
New York Giants Defense vs. Falcons
The Giants deciding to let Deonte Banks be their top cornerback this season proved to be disastrous. Not only has he struggled, but the Giants don’t have much quality depth behind him. To complicate matters, Banks has missed the last three games with a rib injury. Per 4for4 Fantasy Football, the Giants have the sixth-highest pass EPA per play allowed (0.08) in the league.
As they continue to rack up losses, don’t expect them to improve anytime soon. Even though this will be the first career start for Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr., it’s certainly a favorable matchup.
PrizePicks Picks: Michael Penix 224.5 Pass Yards / Drake London 0.5 Rush + Recs TDs
Carolina Panthers Defense vs. Cardinals
Cowboys QB Cooper Rush had three touchdown passes against the Panthers last week. The Panthers have allowed 27 passing touchdowns this season, which is tied for the most in the league. They also have the second-highest pass EPA per play allowed (0.10) in the league, per 4for4. All of that could lead to an offensive explosion for the Cardinals in Week 16.
PrizePicks Picks: Kyler Murray 230.5 Pass Yards / Trey McBride 66.5 Receiving Yards
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NFL Week 16 Run Defenses to Target
New York Jets Defense vs. Rams
Not much has gone right for the Jets this season and their defense is a big reason for their struggles. They have performed well against the pass, but they have the seventh-highest rush EPA per play allowed (0.02) in the league, per 4for4. They might be fighting an uphill battle against Rams RB Kyren Williams, who has rushed for 371 yards and four touchdowns over his last four games.
PrizePicks Pick: Kyren Williams 82.5 Rush Yards
Chicago Bears Defense vs. Lions
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs only had nine carries against the Bears in Week 13. Still, he ran for 87 yards. Preventing big gains has been a problem for the Bears, who have allowed the fourth-highest explosive rush percentage (11.96%) in the league, per 4for4. Gibbs is already in line for added carries with Montgomery out, so he has the potential to produce one of his better stat lines of the season.
PrizePicks to consider: Jahmyr Gibbs 91.5 Rush Yards
Week 16 NFL DFS Picks
Here are the top NFL DFS picks for Week 16 on PrizePicks, including projections from the PrizePicks board.
Jets WR Davante Adams 72.5 Receiving Yards – More
Jets WR Davante Adams made the most of a favorable matchup against the Jaguars last week, catching nine passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns. He has posted at least 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games and he has been targeted at least 11 times in five of his last six games. Another favorable matchup awaits him against the Rams, who have allowed the third-most yards per target to wide receivers (8.61) in the league.
Cardinals RB James Conner 80.5 Rush Yards – More
The Panthers don’t just struggle to defend the pass. They also have the second-highest rush EPA per play allowed (0.10) in the league, per 4for4. The Cardinals have been excellent on the ground, averaging the third-most yards per carry (5.2) in the league. Cardinals RB James Conner has led the way with five games of at least 100 rushing yards.
Best TD Scorer Pick: Raiders TE Brock Bowers (Demon Pick)
Since reports have indicated that O’Connell is moving in the right direction, let’s operate under the assumption that he returns to face the Jaguars. It’s a favorable matchup with the Jaguars being tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed (27) in the league. Seven of those touchdowns went to tight ends.
Bowers has received six red-zone targets over his last six games, which helped him produce three touchdowns. With no shortage of targets likely coming his way in Week 16, he has a favorable opportunity to reach the end zone.
Goblin Pick: Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs – More
Montgomery has 12 rushing touchdowns this season. Even with him in the fold, Gibbs has 11 rushing touchdowns and three receiving scores. With the potential for multiple carries inside the 10-yard line coming his way, Gibbs should be able to reach the end zone at least one time.
Note: Goblin picks reduce your payout on PrizePicks, as they are easier projections to hit.
Build Your Week 16 NFL DFS Lineup on PrizePicks
Playoff implications will be front and center during Week 16 in the NFL, as there’s only three weeks until the end of the season. There is no better way to get in on the fun than by building an NFL DFS team on PrizePicks for the Sunday main slate.
There are no salary constraints, so just pick two or more projections for your favorite players, finalize your lineup, sit back, and enjoy the games. The more players you pick, the more you stand to win.
More Fresh Picks & Insights
