2024 College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions
There’s two weeks left to determine who will play in the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff. With the Playoffs near, it’s time to debate who will make the playoffs and consider the 2024 College Football Playoff bracket.
Two undefeated squads fell in Week 13 — Indiana to Ohio State, and Army to Notre Dame. One is still in great shape to make the Playoffs, while the other’s hopes are dashed. Now, only Oregon remains as the only undefeated, and they have a tough test ahead of them in the Big Ten Championship.
Below, we’ll look ahead to the final two weeks of the college football season, including Conference Championship games, to help make our 2024 College Football Playoff predictions.
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How Many Teams Make the College Football Playoffs?
Starting with the 2024 College Football Playoffs, 12 teams will make the College Football Playoffs. The first four seeds will go to the four highest ranked conference champions; these teams will get a first-round bye.
One more highest-ranked conference champion will also get an automatic berth, but they are seeded according to the College Football Playoff Rankings, in addition to the final seven teams.
Learn more about the new College Football Playoffs format here.
#1 Ohio State — Big Ten Champions
I expect Ohio State to dominate Michigan this week, then win its rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. Head coach Ryan Day made a few late-game mistakes at the end of their first matchup that seem unlikely to happen in a rematch. On top of that, this Ohio State defense is probably the best in the country right now, especially in the passing game; it ranks 1st in dropback Expected Points Added (EPA) and third in rush EPA.
Though I expect it to be tight, Ohio State will get more stops in this game — just enough to get the win.
#2 Georgia — SEC Champions
Assuming Texas takes care of Texas A&M on the road this week, and Georgia can handle Georgia Tech, we’ll see another rematch for a major conference championship in Georgia and Texas. Last time those teams faced off, the Texas offense was incredibly flat against Georgia’s defense, even with Georgia QB Carson Beck throwing three interceptions. Expect a closer game this time around, but Georgia should ultimately pull it out again.
#3 Miami OR SMU — ACC Champions
Miami finishes the season with Syracuse on the road, which is no sure thing. Meanwhile SMU will get California at home and has already clinched a spot in the ACC Championship. Miami has played in a ton of tight games this year, including its loss to Georgia Tech, but really hasn’t beaten any team of serious quality. Meanwhile, one-loss SMU has one of the best offenses in the country and is easily the toughest matchup Miami has faced all year.
Just based on strength of schedule, it’s likely a win or go home scenario for both of these teams in the ACC Championship. I lean Miami and Cam Ward, but it genuinely could come down to the last possession with two less-than-great defenses against two high upside offenses.
#4 Boise State — Mountain West Champions
Many will be surprised to find that the new College Football Playoff format calls for the top four ranked conference champions to take the first four seeds. With no team standing above the rest in the Big 12, it’s likely that Boise State slots in here with a first-round bye so long as it can get wins against Oregon State on Friday and in the Mountain West Championship against UNLV or Colorado State.
While Boise State won’t be expected to do much in the playoffs, let’s not forget that this team put up 34 points on Oregon earlier this year in a narrow loss.
#5 Oregon — Big Ten Runner-Up
As discussed above, I think we’ll see Ohio State avenge its early season loss and topple Oregon. Although that leaves Penn State as the only other one-loss Big Ten team, the Nittany Lions’ schedule was a cakewalk compared to Oregon’s. Expect the Ducks to get the top spot after the four first-round byes and come into the Playoffs as one of the most dangerous teams in the field.
#6 Penn State — Big Ten #3
In my opinion, Penn State is in the bottom four teams to make this College Football Playoff field. The Nittany Lions will finish their regular season with a game against Maryland that they should handle with ease. Last week, they almost dropped a game to Minnesota, which may have ended their season. While #6 is a high ranking, this team doesn’t realistically have a shot at the the National Title, but its hard poke holes in their case to be ranked here.
#7 Notre Dame — Independent Berth
Despite an early season loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame now just has to take care of USC to earn its guaranteed berth into the Playoffs. Notre Dame is averaging 46.8 points per game over its last four games, including a 49-14 shellacking over undefeated Army.
This team is absolutely rolling and is a legit contender to win the National Championship. It’s possible we see the committee rank them as high as No. 5.
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#8 Texas — SEC Runner-Up
While one-loss Texas is ranked No. 3 currently, I find it incredibly hard to overlook its 30-15 loss to Georgia on a neutral field earlier this season. Georgia QB Carson Beck gifted this team three interceptions, and they failed to take advantage.
They’ll get another shot to prove themselves in the SEC Championship, but I have low expectations, as their offense is missing the explosive factor this year, even with solid play from QB Quinn Ewers. Regardless, their defense should put them in good positions to win games.
#9 Tennessee — SEC #3
Tennessee is 9-2 with losses to Arkansas and Georgia, but a crucial win over Alabama where the defense stood up when it mattered. Outside of that win over Bama though, Tennessee is nothing to write home about. This team eked out a win over Florida while it was missing QB DJ Lagway, and hasn’t run away with games against mediocre teams.
That said, the more QB Nico Iamaleava plays, the more comfortable he’s going to get against good defenses, and he’s got huge upside if he can settle in. This Tennessee defense is one of the best in the country, so the Volunteers could be a dark horse to make a run.
#10 Indiana — Big Ten #4
Similar to Penn State, Indiana hasn’t done much to impress this year, though the Hoosiers only have one loss this year to Ohio State on the road. The committee simply can’t leave a one-loss Big Ten team out this season, where the Big Ten looks like the best conference in football.
Indiana has an impressive 56-7 win over Nebraska, but not much else to prove it deserves to be here. The Hoosiers are a well-rounded team with great coaching, and that can go a long way. The main problem is that transfer QB Kurtis Rourke plus a mediocre offensive line is going to be problematic against top defenses.
#11 Arizona State — Big 12 Champion
Arizona State controls its own destiny to win the Big 12. But regardless of that, we’re going to see the Big 12 Champion either ranked here or #12, as Boise State has the inside track on #4 seed, ranked for the fourth-highest ranked Conference Champion.
With RB Cam Skattebo back healthy, Arizona State looks like the team to beat in the Big 12. It’s likely we’ll see them take on Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship next weekend, with the winner taking this spot or the #12 seed.
#12 Clemson OR South Carolina — ACC #2/SEC #4
These two teams will face-off during Rivalry Week and — in my opinion — will be deciding the final seed in the Playoffs. This pick may seem controversial, but I’m inclined to believe that whoever wins this game and gets another Top 25 win will have done enough in the committee’s eyes to earn a berth over SMU, who would have no Top 25 wins if it loses to Miami
Clemson didn’t get a matchup against either of the teams that are set for the ACC Championship. While its resume isn’t impressive, this win could be enough for it to get a bid. As for South Carolina, while it has three losses, it also has solid wins over Missouri and a signature performance over Texas A&M that could make them the first three-loss team to ever make the Playoffs.
First teams out: SMU, Alabama, Ole Miss
While many will predict SMU will get into the College Football Playoffs even after a loss to Miami in the ACC Championship, I find it hard to believe, especially after either Clemson or South Carolina will get another win over a Top 25 ranked team during Rivalry Week. If SMU loses to Miami, which I believe they will in a close, high-scoring affair, it will have lost its only two games against ranked teams, and has no other impressive wins on its resume.
If Alabama gets a win over Auburn, it will be in the thick of Playoff discussion. That said, I highly doubt the committee is ready to let in a team that lost to unranked Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Even with a win over Georgia, losses to bad SEC teams — especially losing 24-3 so recently to Oklahoma — is not going to cut it for Alabama this year.
For what it’s worth, ESPN’s College Football Playoff Predictor has SMU at 64% to make the Playoffs, but that number has to drop drastically if it loses in the ACC Championship.
College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions
#12 Clemson/South Carolina vs. #5 Oregon
The winner of this game will play the #4 seed, which is likely to be Boise State. For Oregon, it would be a rematch from earlier this year.
Prediction: Oregon 26, South Carolina 13
#11 Arizona State vs. #6 Penn State
The winner of this game will play the #3 seed, which is likely to be the ACC Champion.
Prediction: Penn State 33, Arizona State 10
#10 Indiana vs. #7 Notre Dame
The winner of this game will play the #2 seed, which is likely to be the SEC Champion.
Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Indiana 13
#9 Tennessee vs. #8 Texas
The winner of this game will be matched up with the winner of the Big 10 — either Ohio State or Oregon.
Prediction: Tennessee 31, Texas 30
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