Arizona vs Kansas State: College Football Picks for DFS
We have Friday college football to kick-off Week 3, and it’s an exciting showdown between Kansas State and Arizona. We get a top-20 in-conference matchup — with the new 12-team College Football Playoff format, these programs are eyeing a run at the National Championship.
Let’s look at some CFB DFS picks on PrizePicks for the Arizona vs. Kansas State matchup, including a demon pick to boost your payout and a goblin pick if you’re looking for something safer.
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Arizona vs. Kansas State: Time, TV, Location
Date: Friday, September 13, 2024
Time: 8 p.m. ET kickoff
Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kan.
TV: FOX
This team pits the No. 14 Kansas State Wildcats against the No. 20 Arizona Wildcats — to 2-0 squads with Big 12 Championship aspirations.
Kansas State looks ready to take a leap in the Big 12, especially with how different it looks this year. The Wildcats pulled out a gutsy win against Tulane last week, led by 177 all purpose yards from RB DJ Giddens.
Arizona football was down badly recently, but last year, they had their first ten-win season since 2014. They’ve joined the Big 12 with hopes of showing they can be a contender, led by WR Tetairoa McMillan who has legitimate All-American potential.
Arizona vs. Kansas State: CFB DFS Picks for PrizePicks
Kansas State RB DJ Giddens: 126.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards – More
These two teams found success last season with how they ran their offenses. Arizona passed on 55.2% of plays last season, while K-State ran on 54.4% of theirs.
Kansas State will emphasize the run throughout this game. Avery Johnson has no problem pushing the ball with his legs, Dylan Edwards is a change-of-pace back, but DJ Giddens is the workhorse who will lead the running back room.
He won’t beat you to the sidelines or burn you when he gets to the secondary. Instead, he’s going to power through the line of scrimmage, and he’s been hard to take down as he averages 4.1 yards after contact.
Arizona has a solid run defense, with an 84.3 PFF Grade, and that’s why the rushing and receiving yards are the better pick.
As seen last week with a 4-63-1 receiving line, Kansas State likes using Giddens as a receiver where he can get smaller defenders to guard him or push a linebacker away from the box.
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Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan: 94.5 Receiving Yards – More
Tetairoa McMillan is one of the top receivers in the country and will be talked about as a first round pick in the NFL Draft when the draft season rolls around. He’s already putting up staggering numbers after his 300-yard performance, averaging 157.5 receiving yards per game.
This projection has already moved up a few yards as well based on the hype around him. It’s possible that this baseline projection may decrease as the season progresses, but McMillan could see similar stats in this game.
Kansas State plays a lot of man coverage. While they had a lot of talent returning from last year, not having a buffer when you are trying to defend someone as talented as McMillan, you could get burned over and over again.
He has an unbelievable 26.3 yards per reception so far. As we mentioned, K-State’s defense has allowed big plays, and McMillian can push the ball as well as anyone.
Goblin Pick: Kansas State QB Avery Johnson: 149.5 Passing Yards – More
Kansas State is coming into this game 2-0, but there are still questions about their quarterback Avery Johnson, specifically his passing ability.
Johnson has yet to throw for 200 yards in his college career, and has only made two big throws and two turnover-worthy throws.
The good news is that he and K-State have an exceptional ground game. The Wildcats average 7.7 yards per rush so far this year, which is the third-best in the nation, while Arizona is allowing 4.7 yards per rush, ranking 82nd.
All Johnson needs to do is find his specific spots. If he keeps Arizona's defensive front in the box, he can find one-on-one matchups, and he’s done well with that, thanks to his 65.9% completion percentage.
With the chance of this being a high-scoring game, that means more possessions, are more attempts, which means more yards. Go with the safe pick in this spot, as we need to see Johnson do more before we trust him at his regular projection.
Demon Pick: Arizona QB Noah Fifita: 299.5 Passing Yards – More
Noah Fifita has a breakout 2023 as the starter in Arizona, throwing for 2,869 yards, 25 touchdowns, and a 72.4% completion rate.
He didn’t have a big passing performance against Northern Arizona, but that’s what he must do in this game if Arizona is going to compete.
Kansas State was supposed to have one of the best defenses in the country, but it was anything but against Tulane last week, where the Green Wave had 491 total yards. Of those, 342 were passing, allowing 10 yards per dropback and a 14% explosive play rate (plays of 20+ yards).
This looks to be a high-scoring game, with both teams exchanging points. Fifita has over 300 passing yards in six of his last ten games, so his arm will be involved throughout this game.
Build Your Week 3 CFB DFS Lineup on PrizePicks
Not only do we get a one-day early jump start to the CFB Week 3, but it’s between ranked conference opponents. Both Kansas State and Arizona have intentions of playing in big games in January, and that’s why each will be looking for the first signature win of the year.
Arizona and Kansas State have shown they can score points, so we have the chance to see some memorable moments.
With PrizePicks, you simply pick more or less on at least two CFB player projections, lock in your lineup, and enjoy the game. Just stay in the green to win real money when it’s all over.
Follow John Supowitz on X: @ImThatSupi
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