CFB DFS Picks: Week 4 Cheat Sheet for PrizePicks
We are just getting into the important part of the college football season. This is when the CFB conference schedules begin, and with the realignment, we will have matchups we’ve never experienced before.
College football Week 4 features four matchups between ranked opponents, and we'll cover the top CFB DFS picks from two here: Utah vs. Oklahoma State in the Big 12, and Tennessee vs. Oklahoma in the SEC. We also look at Colorado’s return to the Big 12 as they take on Baylor.
On the PrizePicks CFB board, you can see all the Week 4 projections for players' passing, rushing, and receiving yards, plus much more. Let’s look at some of the top college football picks for Week 4 on Saturday, September 21.
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No. 12 Utah vs. No. 14 Oklahoma State: CFB Picks
Time: 4 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Oklahoma St. RB Ollie Gordon — Less Than 82.5 Rush Yards
Gordon was one of the most talked about players coming into the season. He led the country last year with 1,732 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns, and most expected him to carry that over and get into the conversation as a top draft pick.
It has not happened yet. In his last two games, he’s averaged 44 rushing yards and 2.6 yards per carry. The fact that he’s a below-average blocker has also been hurting him, and he went from 68 snaps against Arkansas in Week 2 to 42 against Tulsa in Week 3.
Out of 197 running backs with at least 20 carries this season, Gordon ranks 120th in rushing grade on PFF and 145th in yards after contact.
Utah's defense will be his biggest challenge this season. The Utes have allowed 2.6 yards per carry and zero rushing touchdowns.
Oklahoma State might be playing catch up, so he could also be taken out of the game script. This is not the get-right spot for Gordon.
Utah QB Cameron Rising — More Than 274.5 Pass Yards (Demon Pick)
Want to hear a fun fact? Rising and Oklahoma State quarterback Alan Bowman are a combined 49 years old. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson and Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams — who will match up on Sunday — are a combined 44 years old.
Rising missed last year with an injury and was knocked out of the Week 2 win over Baylor with a right hand finger injury. He “will be ready to go” in Week 4, and is the best option at QB for Utah.
In 2022, he was one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, as his 26 passing touchdowns were the 11th most, and he led the team to its second straight Pac-12 championship.
He gets the best matchup in his return, with Oklahoma State’s pass defense having been demolished this season. Their 305.3 passing yards allowed per game are the fifth-most in the FBS and the most of any Power Five program.
It’s a golden opportunity for some big numbers, so we’ll take the demon pick in Rising’s return.
Utah RB Micah Bernard — More Than 59.5 Rush Yards (Goblin Pick)
We can’t let the Oklahoma State run defense get off easily because they haven’t been much better. They’ve allowed 157.5 yards per game and have a 69.4 PFF run defense grade — 87th in the nation.
Bernard has seen a huge bump in carries in the last two games, with 36 for 241 rushing yards in that span. One reason is the talented and experienced offensive line, which is third in the FBS with an 85.8 grade.
He said he’s excited to play in a “hostile environment,” so he won’t come up small in the Utes' Big 12 debut.
Oklahoma State WR Brennan Presley — Less Than 70.5 Receiving Yards
Oklahoma State has scored 128 points in the three games, which is 14th in the nation. This isn’t an indication of how good the offense is, but how bad their level of competition has been.
The two FBS teams they’ve faced are Arkansas, which has a 51.8 PFF coverage grade, and Tulsa, which has a 58.7 PFF coverage grade. Now, they face Utah, which has an 85.2 PFF coverage grade — 28th in the country.
Presley has been getting the ball consistently, with over 11 targets per game, but the yards haven’t been there, and he has finished under seven yards per catch twice this season. It will be difficult for him to reach this projection in this matchup.
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No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Oklahoma: CFB Picks
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC, ESPN+
Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava — More Than 257.5 Pass Yards
There are a couple of firsts for this game. One of them is Nico Iamaleava’s first SEC matchup. His 698 passing yards and six touchdowns in three games aren’t the full scope; he didn’t play the second half of the blowout wins against Chattanooga and Kent State.
When you look at the game against NC State, while the Vols scored 51 points, it wasn’t smooth. Iamaleava had two interceptions: one was a tip at the line of scrimmage, and another he threw into triple coverage.
The Sooners' 72.3 PFF coverage grade is 12th in the SEC. The defense hasn’t looked great in the last two games, and now they have to face a Tennessee offense scoring 63.7 points per game. Iamaleava should cook here and play all four quarters.
Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson — Less Than 85.5 Rushing Yards
What makes this Tennessee offense so dangerous is that we haven’t seen its full potential. The Vols have a 33.1% pass play percentage because they’ve been up big in each one of these games, so the game script is naturally to run the ball.
Sampson has carried the ball a lot this season, but his 357 rushing yards aren’t inflated because of his workload; he averages 7.9 yards per carry. Oklahoma’s run defense has been great through the first three games, but they haven’t faced any formidable running backs.
Their 3-3-3 defense is keen on having defenders in the box, so they will take away the run and make Tennessee one-dimensional. Sampson will have less of a role in what could be a closer game.
Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold — More Than 0.5 Rush+Rec Touchdowns (Demon Pick)
Arnold has some big shoes to fill as he replaces Dillion Gabriel in Norman. While Gabriel was a traditional pocket passer with a big arm, Arnold is more mobile with shorter throws.
He’s also getting a lot of designed runs — averaging over 10 designed runs per game in three games. Last week, that converted to 97 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
Arnold likes to run, but will also be running for his life as this Oklahoma offensive line is not good by having allowed nine sacks. He’ll be taking off a lot, and will get one in the end zone.
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Baylor vs. Colorado: CFB Picks
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders — More Than 349.5 Passing Yards (Demon Pick)
The run game was a little better last week for Colorado, but that might have been due to the level of competition and game script, as Colorado controlled the game from the jump.
Baylor’s defense has looked solid to start the season, with a 78.3 PFF defensive grade (50th in the nation) and allowing only 29 points. The Bears have faced no real competition: Tarleton State, a largely Cameron Rising-less Utah, and Air Force's triple-option offense.
When Sanders gets into a rhythm, he can move the ball with his arm, especially with this group of outstanding wide receivers. He threw for 310 yards last week, and he should be close to that number here in a competitive game.
Colorado WR Jimmy Horn — More Than 54.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Hunter is the premier pass catcher in this offense, but there are other viable options.
Jimmy Horn has been quiet since he had 198 receiving yards and a touchdown against North Dakota State, but he’s still getting the targets, with seven last week against Colorado State. He only had 22 yards in that game, but he had some catches called back due to penalties.
Hunter will see CB Lornado Johnson, who has a 74 PFF coverage grade and will be shadowed by S Devin Lemear, who has a team-leading 82 PFF coverage grade. These are by far the two best defensive backs Baylor has, with big gaps elsewhere in the secondary. Colorado can take advantage by going to receivers other than Hunter, including Horn.
Lock In on Week 4 CFB DFS on PrizePicks
The college football season is still early, but at PrizePicks, we’re already a full go. The CFB board on PrizePicks has a ton of players for anyone looking for action on college football Saturday.
With new matchups and projections every week, you’ll have some of the top players in the nation to choose from to build your lineup. Just pick more or less on at least two player projections to get started and win up to 200x your money.
Keep checking the Playbook for PrizePicks CFB picks throughout the season, and we’ll bring exciting content all the way until they crown a National Champion.
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