How Many Home Runs Will Aaron Judge Have in 2025?

The 2025 MLB season is fastly approaching, and that means fantasy baseball and MLB DFS is almost here. Coming off a career year, the anticipation is high around Aaron Judge's 2025 performance. 

After an outstanding 2024 season where he won AL MVP, Judge's fantasy baseball projections are set at 49.5 home runs, 5.5 multi-home run games, and 118.5 RBIs on PrizePicks' MLBSZN game. 

We’ll dive deep into Judge’s past performances, compare them to his 2025 season projections, and see if he can eclipse those numbers in the upcoming season.

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Understanding MLBSZN and PrizePicks

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In MLBSZN, you can call your shots on season-long stat projections to pick whether a player will go More or Less — like Judge’s home runs. If your picks are correct, you’ll win real money when the season is over. Plus, you can play daily fantasy MLB on PrizePicks, turning every game into a chance to win big.

Aaron Judge’s 2024 Stats

In 2024, the New York Yankees two-time MVP delivered extraordinary offensive numbers, leading the league with 58 home runs and 144 RBIs, while posting a .322 batting average and a 1.159 OPS. Judge racked up his second American League MVP award in three seasons.

The majority of his damage came against right-handed starting pitchers, as Judge hammered 42 home runs and drove in 106 runs. In the first 34 games of the season, Judge was limited to six homers before dominating through the rest of the season. 

Judge compiled five multi-home run games, all coming before September. The center fielder — who is likely to play DH more this season — has never put together consecutive seasons of 100+ RBI, which will be interesting to see if he breaks that trend in 2025. However, in each season he’s played at least 150 games, he has averaged nearly 130 RBIs per season.

Judge’s 2025 Projections vs. Past Seasons

Judge has never played 160 games in a season in his career, so injuries are always a concern. He played in a career-high 158 games in 2024, which helped in producing his massive offensive numbers. 

The 2025 projections of 49.5 home runs and 118.5 RBIs are slightly below Judge's 2024 numbers. Judge has hit more than 50 home runs twice in his career. He hit 62 home runs in 2022 and 58 in 2024. 

From the RBI perspective, he exceeded 118.5 RBIs in each of his MVP seasons. In 2022, he drove in 131 runs and set a career-high last season with 144 RBIs.

That’s all to say, if you think Judge is set to contend for AL MVP again and can stay healthy, his 2025 fantasy baseball projections look attainable.

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What Do Judge’s 2024 Predictive Stats Say?

Judge didn’t just crush on paper last year, he also crushed in predictive stats, which is a good sign for his 2025 projections.

Judge led the MLB in xwOBA (.479) and barrel rate (26.9%, leading by over 5%), and was fifth in launch angle sweet spot percentage (40.8%). He had career highs in expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA.

He also led the MLB in expected HR, at 56.2. It doesn’t hurt that Yankee Stadium is a plus ballpark for hitters.

By all indications, Judge was playing the best baseball of his career last season, and he could be carrying that into 2025.

History of Home Run Leaders

In MLB history, we have seen a player hit 50 home runs in a season 50 times. Barry Bonds broke Mark McGwire’s single-season record in 2001 with 73 home runs. 

Judge set the American League record with 62 home runs in 2022, which was one more than fellow Yankee Roger Maris, who held the single-season record for 37 seasons.

However, only four players have hit at least 50 home runs in consecutive seasons, including McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Alex Rodriguez, and Babe Ruth. 

Who can keep up with Judge?

Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani’s home run projection is set at 43.5 on PrizePicks,  which is six less than Judge’s projection. Ohtani hit a career-high 54 home runs last season, marking his third season of at least 44 home runs. This year, he’ll return to the mound at some point, which could take some of his focus away from hitting.

No other hitters are listed at above 40 home runs for their season projections. Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber (36.5 home runs), Astros DH Yordan Alvarez (35.5 home runs), and Mets OF Juan Soto (34.5 home runs) own the next three-highest projections behind Judge and Ohtani.

There were 16 players last season that drove in 100 runs or more. Judge led the way with 144 RBI, followed by Ohtani with 130. Those two players, along with Alvarez are the only three listed with a projection of 100 RBI or more in 2025. 

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Get Ready for MLBSZN on PrizePicks

Opening Day is right around the corner, and that means it’s officially fantasy baseball season. Don’t miss out on building your ideal fantasy baseball team with MLBSZN on PrizePicks. Just pick More or Less on season-long player stats, like strikeouts or home runs, and cash in if your picks are correct at the end of the season. 

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