Lions vs. Texans: Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions
We’ve got an AFC vs. NFC showdown on Sunday Night Football tonight between the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans. Below, we’ve got Sunday Night Football picks and predictions for the game below for PrizePicks and NFL DFS.
The Texans, who sit atop the AFC South, play host to the Lions, who are also atop their division in the NFC North. The Lions are a perfect 4-0 away from home, and will look to continue their stellar season against the Texans, who have had ups and downs yet managed a respectable 6-3 record.
All eyes are on the Texans WR Nico Collins who hasn’t played since Week 5 and is questionable — as without him many are already writing them off in this matchup given they recently lost WR Stefon Diggs for the season. The Lions, who pick and choose which weapons to deploy depending on the week due to their abundance of talent, regain another legit WR2 heading into this game in Jameson Williams.
Below, we’ll highlight some of the best NFL DFS picks for Sunday Night Football and a touchdown scorer pick for the game.
Don’t forget to head to the PrizePicks NFL board, lock in your picks, and build your Lineup to get in on the real money sports action.
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Lions vs. Texans Sunday Night Football: Time, TV, Location
Date: Sunday, November 10, 2024
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.
TV: NBC, Peacock
Sunday Night Football Picks: Lions vs. Texans
Here are three of the top Lions vs. Texans picks on Sunday Night Football, plus a game prediction.
- Lions TE Sam Laporta 16.5 Longest Reception — More
- TD Scorer Pick: Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Ka’imi Fairbairn + Jake Bates 47.5 Longest FG Made Yds — More
- Score Prediction: Lions 30, Texans 20
Lions TE Sam LaPorta 16.5 Longest Reception — More
Sam “all it takes is one” LaPorta. LaPorta has cleared this projection 7 of 8 eight games this season, and twice he did it despite seeing just one reception in the game. Last year during the regular season he cleared this projection 11 of 17 games, but his role has seemingly changed drastically.
This season the Lions have asserted their will with a one two punch in RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and when a big catch is needed, it becomes WR Amon-Ra St. Browns time to shine. Last season through eight games LaPorta had amassed 59 targets compared to his 26 this season.
So why a More on the less used LaPorta? Yes, 7 for 8 is alluring, but it’s the quality of targets he has seen that has made this projection so attractive. Of all passers with over 10 attempts, Goff registers the highest completion percentage at 74.9%. When LaPorta is targeted, Goff has a passer rating of 140.4, 2nd among all TEs.
Through nine weeks, the Texans defense has allowed on average 2.3 pass catchers a game to finish the game with a longest reception over this projection. LaPorta averages 11.5 yards a target, first for TEs — meaning he isn’t a dink and dunk safety valve but someone who is looking to make more meaningful plays when given a chance.
It feels like Sam LaPorta could get the production going any day now after such a stellar rookie campaign, but until the Lions — who are first in scoring margin at +13.8 on the season— need to lean on him, I’ll keep taking the projection he’s constantly cashed with his few looks.
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Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs — More (Demon)
Amon-Ra St. Brown will look to break the Lions franchise record this weekend for consecutive games with a receiving touchdown, previously set by Herman Moore in 1994 at six. With six straight games under his belt with a touchdown, even without game script being favorable for a Lions WR, St. Brown continues to find pay dirt.
A lot of his touchdown success this season is set up by wonderful QB play by Jared Goff, and very favorable target situations. St. Brown has done some incredible things when the Lions are near the end-zone:
- 1st in the NFL in targets within 5 yards of the end zone: 4 targets, 4 TDs.
- 1st in the NFL in targets within 10 yards of the end zone: 7 targets, 7 catches, 5 TDs.
- 1st in the NFL in targets within 15 yards of the end zone: 8 targets, 8 catches, 5 TDs.
Through eight games, all 8 targets St. Brown has inside the 15 have resulted in a catch. Even more appealing, is those targets within the 15 makeup 72.7% of all of Goff’s throws inside the 15.
To speak on the defensive matchup, it’s more than favorable. The Texans have allowed 16 players to have at least 40 receiving yards in just nine games. In those nine games, 14 of the 16 also scored a touchdown to boot.
As a normal projection, this is one to keep eyes on, but as a boosted Demon projection, this is one of my favorite picks of the entire week.
Note: Demon picks add a payout boost to your lineup on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.
Kickers Ka’imi Fairbairn + Jake Bates — More than 47.5 Longest FG Made Yards
Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has silently been one of the best kickers in the NFL this season. He is currently the third ranked kicker in terms of fantasy score, and has yet to miss an extra point, going a perfect 18 for 18. He has made 21 field goals, good for third among all kickers.
His most impressive stat line however comes in the form of his deep kicks, taking the title of most 50+ yarders on the season away from Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey. Through nine games, Fairbairn has attempted a league-high 12 FGs over 50 yards, and hit a league-high 10.
That equates to him, on average, hitting this projection by himself just over once per outing this season. In the last seven games Fairbairn kicked in, including the postseason, Fairbairn attempted six FGs over 50, smashing each one.
Now that the case for Fairbairn clearing this by himself has been made, enter Jake Bates. As confidence increases in former kickoff specialist turned kicker Bates, the Lions have increased his long kick utilization. Through the first four weeks Bates did not attempt a FG over 40 yards. In the last four weeks, he has attempted and hit a perfect 3-for-3 on 40-49 (one at 48) yarders, and attempted and hit on his lone 50+ yarder of the season.
That means Bates alone has cashed this projection in two of his last four games, and Fairbairn has done so in three of his five most recent games. I love my chances for either one of the best kickers in the league in Fairbairn to get it done, or one of the kickers with the fastest rising stock in Bates can get it done.
Sunday Night Football Prediction: Lions 30, Texans 20
The Lions, no pun intended, have mauled their competition through eight games. They dropped one in Week 2 against the Buccaneers, who were rolling at the time. But more impressively, everyone they have played, absurdly minus the 2-6 Titans, loses the next week. Playing the Lions is a beatdown even when the score doesn’t always reflect it. That average margin of victory at +13.8 is no joke.
The Texans on the other hand are struggling to find their offensive identity with a rotating door of injuries. WR Steffon Diggs is out for the season, WR Nico Collins is a recurring game-time decision, WR Tank Dell is banged up, and RB Joe Mixon missed three games in the middle of the season.
Until QB CJ Stroud can regain his form from last year and find some comfortability behind one of the most penalized offensive lines, I can’t see them beating a top team even with the home crowd behind them.
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