MLB DFS Strategy Tips to Dominate in 2025

Traditional MLB stats like batting average, ERA, and home runs only tell part of the story. If you really want to make smarter MLB DFS plays, you’ve gotta lock in and go beyond the basics. 

Below, we’ll break down key MLB DFS strategy tips to help you make better Lineups — from where to find advanced stats to tracking bullpen usage and weather. 

Whether you’re just getting started or looking to level up your MLB DFS game this year, there tips will help you navigate the PrizePicks board with confidence all season long.

PrizePicks is the easiest way to cash in on your MLB knowledge. Just pick More or Less on player stat projections — like hits, strikeouts, or runs — and win real money if your picks are right. The more players you pick, the more you could win. The best part? There’s endless player stats and no salary cap, so you can build your Lineup however you want.

‍

Tip #1: Use Advanced MLB Stats

Many baseball fans are accustomed to the usual stats like batting average, home runs, runs scored, RBI, and stolen bases for hitters. For pitchers, stats like ERA, strikeouts, and wins have been tracked for decades. However, the use of additional advanced stats is key for winning in MLB DFS.

There are a plethora of advanced stats out there. The best place to find stats and do MLB DFS statistical research is on FanGraphs and Baseball Savant — but there are many others out there.

For example, Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and indicates how often a player gets extra base hits. Yankees OF Aaron Judge, who hit 58 home runs last season, had a .379 ISO. Of his 180 hits last season, 95 of them went for extra bases. The stat ISO can be useful when trying to determine how many total bases a player will have in a game.

An example of an advanced stat on the pitching side of things is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP). This stat estimates a pitcher’s expected run prevention independent of the performance of their defense. 

On the surface, Astros P Ronel Blanco appeared to have an excellent 2024 campaign with his 2.80 ERA. However, his xFIP finished at 4.09. That means we could see his ERA regress this season if he doesn’t have the same level of defensive performance around him.

Splits are also important advanced stats to consider. Does a player hit better at home or on the road? Do they hit better against left-handed pitchers or righties? On the pitching side of things, does a starting pitcher perform better at home or on the road? Do they have better stats against right-handed hitters or left-handed hitters? 

These are all important things to keep in mind. You can dig even further into splits, like how well a hitter performs against fastballs compared to off-speed pitches. It’s all possible with tools like FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

For an extensive list of advanced stats and a glossary for what they mean, check out this glossary on MLB.com.  

Tip #2: Monitor The Weather

Weather is key for MLB DFS. The first thing to check for is if there is rain in the forecast. Rain can have much more of an impact than just whether or not a game is postponed. Some games are projected to start with clear weather, but have rain move in at some point during the game. 

For those playing MLB DFS and selecting pitchers, this could be a key. If there is rain in the forecast for the middle of the game, it could end the starting pitcher’s night prematurely, depending on the length of the delay.

Temperatures and winds are also important to monitor. Baseballs usually travel farther in warm, humid weather — this is super important for power hitters. A cold day in early April might make it difficult for both teams to score runs. While warmer weather games get a slight edge for MLB DFS, as the ball should travel better.

Winds are important because both wind speeds and directions can impact games. High winds can help balls travel further if they are blowing out. However, if winds are blowing in, it can suppress home runs.

There are many places to track MLB weather — just do a Google search and pick the tool you prefer.

💰 Use PrizePicks Promo Code "Playbook": Claim free $50 with your first $5+ Lineup

‍

Tip #3: Check For Injuries & Lineups

Like all sports for DFS, monitoring injuries are key. If a team is missing one of their best hitters from the middle of their lineup, it can significantly their chances of scoring runs and affect the players in the lineup around them. Some players also try to play through injuries, which can have a negative impact on their production in more than one area — this is another reason to track splits.

An example of how injuries can impact MLB DFS is Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr., who is expected to miss at least the month of April as he recovers from a torn ACL. Not having him in their lineup to begin the season could lead to some muted offensive games for the Braves. 

Acuna is also known for his speed, stealing 73 bases in 2023. When he does eventually return, he might not be as aggressive on the base paths. When he came back from a different torn ACL in 2022, he stole a more modest 29 bases over 119 games.

In general, official lineups are usually out at least 90 minutes before first pitch — sometimes sooner. Unlike the NBA, you have plenty of time to get acquainted with a team’s lineup for the day and react accordingly, save for the occasional late scratch.

MLB.com has a great page for tracking daily lineups, and there are many other tools available if you’re looking for something more in depth.

Tip #4: Track Bullpen Usage

Tracking a team’s bullpen usage is also important for MLB DFS. If a team has pitched their closer three days in a row, he likely won’t be available for that fourth game, which means their bullpen is more attackable.

It’s not just closers to track, either. If a team has used their top relievers multiple days in a row, that means that they might not be available in a specific game. That could force them to rely more heavily on their starting pitcher, which could impact their outs recorded projection. 

This can also have an impact on MLB DFS hitter projections. Let’s say a team has used their closer and top two setup men three days in a row. That means on that fourth day, all three of them might not be available. The opposing lineup could receive added opportunities to hit against weaker relief pitchers, which could lead to more hits and scoring.

Win Real Money with PrizePicks MLB DFS

Use these MLB DFS strategies and tips to improve your Lineups on PrizePicks all season long. With deeper research as part of your process, you can get an edge and make sharper picks this season. With PrizePicks, you just need to pick More or Less on at least two player projections to win real money — the more you pick, the more you can win. 

Whether you’re going with demons or goblins, strikeouts or hits+runs+RBIs,  don’t miss out on the real money MLB action waiting for you on PrizePicks. This season will be packed with MLB picks to consider, from hits to home runs to earned runs allowed for individual players.

Come back to the Playbook every day throughout the MLB season for more picks and daily analysis on MLB DFS.