Week 5 CFB DFS Picks: Cheat Sheet for PrizePicks
Week 5 of the college football season is here, and there are some big-time matchups as we get into the thick of conference matchups.
This week’s CFB DFS picks feature notable players who are having incredible seasons, and some who have underwhelmed, like Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon.
In the Cheath Sheet, we'll examine the impact they can make this Saturday, as many teams are facing their first real test. We’ve also got a full preview and picks for the College Football Game of the Week: #2 Georgia vs. #4 Alabama.
On the PrizePicks CFB board, you can see all the Week 5 projections for players' passing, rushing, and receiving yards, plus much more. Let’s look at some of the top college football picks for Week 4 on Saturday, September 27.
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CFB DFS Picks for Week 5
Quarterback Picks for CFB DFS
Kansas St. QB Avery Johnson 236.5 Pass+Rush Yards — MORE
Kansas St. QB Avery Johnson had his first poor performance of the year, completing just 15-of-28 for 130 yards and 2 interceptions against BYU.
For Johnson to excel, the Wildcats need to get an early lead, as struggles with making the big throw. Johnson can still run, which allows him to find open receivers and create space. When defenses make him one-dimensional, they can contain him.
While BYU is 23rd in total defense (269 yards per game), Oklahoma State is 125th (461 yards per game). BYU is top 10 in pass defense expected points added (EPA), while Oklahoma State ranks 40th in the same metric.
Look at what Utah backup quarterback Isaac Wilson did with little notice that he’d be starting against Oklahoma State: 207 passing yards and 41 rushing yards. Those are rookie numbers.
Johnson has similar skill sets and should shine again in a much softer matchup this week.
Oregon QB Dillion Gabriel 1.5 Passing TDs — MORE (Goblin Pick)
Two weeks ago against Oregon State, everything clicked for Oregon. The passing attack was exceptional as QB Dillon Gabriel threw for 291 yards and 2 touchdowns; the Ducks established the ground game, and the offensive line provided the best protection we'd seen.
Gabriel had his most efficient passing performance in that game, with a 92.8 PFF grade. This week, he gets another favorable matchup against UCLA, which has allowed seven passing touchdowns in their last two games and has a 63.6 PFF pass coverage grade (103rd).
It helps that Gabriel has hit this number in all three games so far, and in 9-of-12 games last year, when he averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns per game.
UCF QB KJ Jefferson 44.5 Rushing Yards — MORE
This is a marquee game for Central Florida, as Colorado will bring media attention to this Big 12 matchup. The Buffaloes almost lost their conference debut but prevailed in overtime against Baylor in a nail-biter.
Last week, Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson chopped up this defense on the ground, with 9 rushes for 82 yards a touchdown.
Enter dual-threat QB KJ Jefferson, who transferred from Arkansas to UCF and will face the much softer defenses in the Big 12 after three years as a starter in the SEC. He has done well in the run and pass game this season and could make the Knights a contender in the conference.
The Knights come into this game as favorites, and they will exploit a Buffaloes’ defense that has been struggling, especially against the run. Colorado is allowing 150.8 yards per game (82nd in college football) on the ground.
UCF RB RJ Harvey will get plenty of carries, but there will be many times when Jefferson will take off himself, as he’s averaging almost 10 carries a game — including two blowouts.
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Running Back Picks for CFB DFS
Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon 80.5 Rushing Yards — LESS
It’s time to be concerned about Oklahoma State RB Gordon. He was the 2023 leading rusher in college, and many believed he would be the top RB pick in the upcoming draft.
Unfortunately, he’s fallen down to earth very fast. He has just 258 yards in four games this season — he went over that number twice in one game last year.
You can’t necessarily blame the offensive line; they had a 55.2 PFF run-blocking grade last year (102nd), and this year, it's 60.7 (88th). Kansas State’s 66.7 PFF run defense is 60th in college football, but their 83.2 rushing yards allowed per game is 15th.
You can’t show confidence in Gordon until he goes out there and changes the narrative. And this certainly doesn’t look like the ideal get right spot on paper.
Oklahoma RB Jovantae Barnes 49.5 Rushing Yards — LESS
It was a heartbreaking loss for the Sooners in their SEC debut. Some big decisions led up to this matchup against Auburn, including replacing five-star QB Jackson Arnold with Michael Hawkins at quarterback.
Hawkins will start with Auburn, which hasn’t beaten a Power Five team yet this year. However, the Tigers have been competitive in those games and have only lost by a total margin of 17 points.
The defense keeps them in contention, and they’ll need to do that to get a win.
As we saw last week, Oklahoma didn’t move the needle offensively like last year, as they could only muster 15 points. This game will emphasize defense, and the Sooners will struggle to gain yards.
Sooners RB Jovantae Barnes hasn’t rushed the ball more than 14 times in any game this year, and the Tigers are only giving up 3.1 yards per rush.
Hawkins will also be a factor in the run game as a dual-threat QB, plus Taylor Tatum continues to see some carries to spell Barnes.
Don’t expect Barnes to hit the projection as the Sooners adjust to Hawkins under center.
SMU RB Brashard Smith 99.5 Rushing Yards — MORE (Demon Pick)
SMU starts conference play this week, and other than the game against BYU, the offense has steamrolled its competition. They are coming off a 66-42 win against TCU, in which they had 238 rushing yards.
Smith was a big part of that, with 127 yards and 3 touchdowns, bringing his total to 380 yards on the season.
Florida State has been highly disappointing this season at 1-3 after being undefeated last year in the regular season. The Seminoles have been burned on the ground, allowing 156.2 rushing yards per game (87th) on 4.0 yards per carry.
That sets up an excellent spot for Smith, who could reach the century mark again this week as he has twice this year already. If you want to play it safe, Smith’s main PrizePicks projection sits at 76.5 rushing yards.
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Wide Receiver Picks for CFB DFS
Duke WR Jordan Moore 72.5 Receiving Yards — MORE
Duke lost its head coach and starting quarterback this offseason, but despite that, the team has started 4-0.
The Blue Devils haven’t been a huge offensive threat this season, averaging just 30.8 points (66th in NCAA), but against a high-powered North Carolina offense, they will need to put up points.
North Carolina has been vulnerable against the pass this year, giving up 287.7 passing yards per game — 11th out of 134 teams — and their 56.6 PFF coverage grade ranks 117th. Last week, the Tar Heels gave up 388 yards and five touchdowns to James Madison (!!!) quarterback Alonza Barnett III — a former three-star recruit.
Duke WR Jordan Moore was not a factor last week against Middle Tennessee because the team coasted to a win. But in the previous games against UConn and Northwestern, the Blue Devils needed him, and he contributed 194 receiving yards.
Moore has been targeted at least 10 times in every game outside of last week, and he will get plenty of targets in what should be a close, back-and-forth affair.
Louisville WR Ja’Corey Brooks 72.5 Receiving Yards — LESS
Brooks stood out for Alabama in 2022 with 674 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, but an injury-filled 2023 season hindered him, leading him to enter the portal.
Brooks is the Cardinals' best receiver, leading the team in catches (17) and receiving yards (297), and twice as many targets as any other receiver.
However, that receiving number is only good enough for 41st in the FBS, as Louisville leans on the run for 52.6% of its plays. We may see Louisville stick to the ground game in this matchup against Notre Dame, as its 92.5 PFF coverage grade is third in college football.
Notre Dame doesn’t have a strong passing attack either, so this game will likely be determined in the trenches. Although Brooks has reached this number in every game this year, it was against much weaker competition.
It’s likely that Brooks will have little to no impact in this game in what is a brutal matchup.
Oklahoma State WR De’Zhaun Stribling 57.5 Receiving Yards — MORE
Oklahoma State's offense has continued to disappoint, leading to QB Alan Bowman being benched last week as he completed less than 50% of his passes with two interceptions.
Utah has a great defense by Big 12 standards. This week, Bowman will remain under center against Kansas State, which is a softer matchup. The Wildcats have the 84th graded pass coverage defense per PFF, and they’ve allowed 25+ points to two of three FBS opponents this season.
Look for the Cowboys to have a better offensive effort, including WR De’Zhaun Stribling. He’s leading the team with 345 receiving yards and a 76.4 PFF grade. He’ll mostly see Keenan Garber, who has struggled the last two games, allowing nine catches for 99 yards.
The Pokes have been solid in pass blocking, with an 83.8 PFF grade (8th), and Kansas State’s 63.1 PFF pass rush grade is 100th. Bowman should have time in the pocket, and Stribling should have a great game.
Lock In on Week 5 CFB DFS on PrizePicks
We are in the thick of college football season and at PrizePicks, we are a full go. The CFB board on PrizePicks has a ton of players to get action on college football Saturday.
With new matchups and projections every week, you’ll have some of the top players in the nation to choose from to build your lineup. Just pick more or less on at least two player projections to get started and win up to 100x your money.
Keep checking the Playbook for PrizePicks CFB picks throughout the season, and we’ll bring exciting content all the way until a National Champion is crowned.
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