UFC 305: Du Plessis vs Adesanya Picks & Projections

With your friends for UFC 305 and need some key talking points so they don’t clown you? We got you covered. Lock in for the UFC 305: Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya main card preview and projections. 

UFC 305 is set to be an electrifying night, with the title fight between current Middlewight champion Du Plessis, and former champion Adesanya. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, with Du Plessis vs Adesanya fight expected to start around 12:30 a.m. ET.

Below, we’ll cover who’s fighting in UFC 305, things to watch, and PrizePicks projections for the big fights on Saturday night.

Don’t forget to lock in the Adesanya free square on PrizePicks, and build the rest of your lineup before the card starts! 

Not a PrizePicks member yet? Sign up with promo code “Playbook” and get $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup!

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UFC 305 Card, Start Times, Projections: Du Plessis vs Adesanya

The prelims for UFC 305 will start at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 18, with the main card, is expected to start at 10 p.m. ET.Times are subject to change, but expect the Du Plessis vs Adesanya fight to start around 12:30 a.m. ET.

Projections are via the PrizePicks MMA board as of Friday at 12 p.m. ET.

Here’s the UFC 305 main card schedule with fighter projections, in reverse order.

Dricus Du Plessis (c) vs Israel Adesanya

• Main event
• Middleweight title fight
• Expected start time: 12:30 a.m. ET
• Fight Time projection: 22.5 minutes
• Dricus Du Plessis projections: 79.5 Significant Strikes, 4.0 Takedowns
• Israel Adesanya projections: 90.5 Significant Strikes (0.5 via free square), 96.5 Fantasy Score

Kai Kara-France vs Steve Erceg

• Co-main event
• Flyweight 
• Expected start time: 11:40 a.m. ET
• Kai Kara-France projection: 60.5 Significant Strikes
• Steve Erceg projections: 61.5 Significant Strikes, 87.5 Fantasy Score

Mateusz Gamrot vs Dan Hooker

• Main card
• Lightweight
• Expected start time: 11:10 p.m. ET
• Mateusz Gamrot projections: 47.5 Significant Strikes, 91.5 Fantasy Score, 4.0 Takedowns 
• Dan Hooker projection: 44.5 Significant Strikes

Tai Tuivasa vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

• Main card
• Heavyweight
• Expected start time: 10:40 p.m. ET
• Fight TIme projection: 4.75 minutes
• Tai Tuivasa projection: 17.5 Significant Strikes
• Jairzinho Rozenstruik projections: 20.5 Significant Strikes, 115.5 Fantasy Score

Li Jingliang vs Carlos Prates

• Main card
• Welterweight
• Expected start time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Fight Time projections: 10.5 minutes
• Li Jingliang projection: 34.5 Significant Strikes
• Carlos Prates projection: 41.5 Significant Strikes, 104.5 Fantasy Score

Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya Free Square!

PrizePicks is offering a free square on Adesanya for UFC 305. Adesanya only needs 0.5 significant strikes in the fight (reduced from his 90.5 projection) to green out. 

Head to the PrizePicks app, lock in the Adesanya 0.5 significant strikes free square, and add at least one more pick to set your lineup for the UFC 305 middleweight title fight.

Not a PrizePicks member yet? Sign up with promo code “Playbook” and get $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup!

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Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya Preview

Since entering the UFC in 2020, Du Plessis hasn’t tasted defeat. With a split decision earlier this year to become the Middleweight champion, he now has a very difficult first title defense ahead of him. Adesanya has proved time and time again he can strike with the best in the world, but questions linger if he’s past his prime, has been in too many fights, and if his striking has become too defensive and reliant on the judges.

With the tables flipped and Izzy now having to do enough to take the belt, he will need to be more aggressive and have a higher output. In his last fight, Izzy couldn’t find holes in Sean Strickland’s game to exploit, and he ultimately folded, taking his second middleweight fight via unanimous decision.

DDP is known to have a more bull-in-a-china shop approach in the octagon, so his lack of technical skills could get him in trouble against the former champ. To DDP’s credit, he does have a sizable grappling advantage in this matchup and will look to make the fight ugly. 

It's ugly enough that PrizePicks has DDP’s takedowns projections set at an even four, but projects Izzy to do more on his feet, with a 100.5 significant strikes projection to DDP’s 79.5. There’s a lot of bad blood between these two, and that could be enough to lead to a finish before it can be settled by the judges; PrizePicks has the five-round fight projected to last 21.5 minutes.

Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Pick: Adesanya MORE than 96.5 Fantasy Score

Izzy physically looks the best he’s ever looked. See below:

He’s a guy who loves playing into narratives and with him being the challenger he’s very locked in. I think his takedown defense holds up and he gets it done here in a close one, so I like taking his more than 96.5 Fantasy Score.

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg Preview

Outside of a UFC 301 main event loss to the champ Pantoja, No. 7 ranked Erceg has looked classes above his competition. At UFC 305, he’ll match up against No. 4 ranked Kara-France, who hasn’t fought in over a year due to a concussion. 

Kara-France, however, has a massive advantage in experience, but just being a vet might not be enough to hold off the up-and-comer. PrizePicks sees it most likely being even on the feet, with Erceg being at 61.5 significant strikes to KKF’s 60.5.

Kara-France vs. Erceg Pick: Erceg MORE than 88.5 Fantasy Score

Kara-France’s experience isn’t enough to contain the likes of Erceg. I’d take the more at 88.5 for Erceg’s Fantasy Score as he notches a win here.

Mateusz Gamrot vs Dan Hooker Preview

No. 11 ranked Hooker will look to shed his recent inactivity and lack of consistent success here against a dangerous No. 5 ranked Gamrot. Gamrot’s grappling and submission abilities are a matchup problem for Hooker and could potentially prove too much for him to handle. 

Gamrot is projected at 3.5 takedowns on PrizePicks after notching an eye popping 11-of-19 takedowns in his victory earlier this year against Rafael dos Anjos.

Gamrot vs Hooker Pick: Gamrot MORE than 91.5 Fantasy Score

Gamrot will prove to be way too much for the more one-dimensional Hooker and pours it on him. Taking Gamrot more than 91.5 Fantasy Score here.

Tai Tuivasa vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Preview

Blink and you might miss this fight. These two guys haven’t seen a decision since 2021. No. 12 ranked Rozenstruik is favored against better-ranked No. 10 Tuivasa. 

After a rapid rise to the top, Tuivasa has now been on the wrong end of finishes in four straight fights. Rozenstruik, on the other hand, is coming off a dominant fourth round finish and will look to exploit Tai’s suspect striking defense. 

PrizePicks doesn’t project this one making it out of the first round, with the fight time projection set at 4.75 minutes.

Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Pick: Rozenstruik LESS than 4.75 Fight Time (Mins)

In a crazy battle, I could see Tuivasa knocking out the heavily favored Rozenstruik. Either way the cookie crumbles, I’m trusting enough in this being a barn burner in the first round to take less than 4.75 Fight Time (Mins).

Li Jingliang vs Carlos Prates Picks

Jingliang hasn’t fought in over seven hundred days, and it appears he is in declining form. Prates will look to utilize his aggressive style and power to secure his third-straight knockout win since February. 

If it sounds lopsided it may be because it is, with Jingliang being the biggest underdog on the main card. PrizePicks has this one at 10.5 minutes fight time, and thus projects for the fight to make it out of the second round.

Jingliang vs Prates Pick: Prates MORE than 104.5 Fantasy Points

Prates will make easy work of the rusty Jingliang. More than 104.5 Fantasy Score is my favorite play for this fight.

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Not a PrizePicks member yet? Sign up with promo code “Playbook” and get $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup!

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Pick Your UFC 305 Fighters on PrizePicks

With only one day until UFC 305, make sure you’ve locked in your lineups on PrizePicks! With a stacked card and the Middleweight championship main event between Du Plessis and Adesanya, it will be an electrifying night of fights.

Head to the PrizePicks app, lock in the Adesanya free square, and get ready for a sweat during UFC 305.

Article written by Ryelan Jones