UFC 313 Predictions - Pereira vs. Ankalaev & Main Card Picks

UFC 313 on Saturday night is set to deliver us fireworks, with the light heavyweight belt up for grabs and multiple fighters on the card who are no stranger to Fight of the Night bonuses. If anyone is to dethrone current light heavyweight champion and overall No. 3 pound for pound fighter Alex Pereira, Magomed Ankalaev may be the guy for the job. 

Co-headlining the UFC 313 card, we have an equally intriguing matchup: perennial banger Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev, in a rematch of their 2023 bout that ended in a tightly contested decision win for Gaethje. 

Click here to go straight to our UFC 313 Main Card Predictions below, including PrizePicks picks and predictions for tonight’s UFC flights.

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Live from Las Vegas in the T-Mobile Arena, it should be an electric third UFC PPV of 2025. The UFC 313 main card is set to start at 10 p.m. ET, with the Pereira vs. Ankalaev fight expected to start around 12 a.m. ET, depending on when the other fights end.

Below, we’ll cover who’s fighting in UFC 313, including UFC 313 predictions and picks to watch for the main card fight, plus PrizePicks projections for the big fights on Saturday night.

PrizePicks has special discounts on both Pereira and Gaethje’s significant strikes on the MMA board until 10 p.m. ET, so it’s that much easier to cash in on UFC 313 tonight. See the discounts below.

PrizePicks is the easiest way to win cash on UFC 313 Pereira vs. Ankalaev; just pick More or Less on fighter projections — like significant strikes or fight time — and get paid if your picks are correct. 

UFC 313 Card, Start Times, Projections: Pereira vs Ankalaev

UFC 313 will start at 10 p.m. ET with the main card prelims on Saturday, March 8, while the Pereira vs. Ankalaev main event is expected to start at 12 a.m. ET — subject to change based on other fights before it.

UFC 313 projections are via the PrizePicks MMA board as of Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET, but are subject to change until lock. 

Here’s the UFC 313 main card schedule, in reverse order.

Alex Pereira (c) vs. Magomed Ankalaev – Main Event

• Main event
• Light heavyweight title fight
• Expected start time: 12 a.m. ET
• Pereira Projections: 66.5 Significant Strikes (Discounted to 39.5 on PrizePicks), 92.5 Fantasy Score
• Ankalaev Projection: 54.5 Significant Strikes
• Fight Time Projection: 15 minutes
• Pereira (c) vs. Ankalaev Prediction

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev – Co-Main Event 

• Co-main event
• Lightweight
• Expected start time: 11:30 p.m. ET
• Gaethje Projection: 82.5 Significant Strikes (Discounted to 62.5 on PrizePicks)
• Fiziev Projections: 80.5 Significant Strikes, 80.5 Fantasy Score
• Fight Time Projection: 13.75 minutes
• Gaethje vs. Fiziev Prediction

Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

• Lightweight
• Expected start time: 11 p.m. ET
• Turner Projection: 50.5 Significant Strikes
• Bahamondes Projections: 55.5 Significant Strikes, 87.5 Fantasy Score
• Fight Time Projection: 11.5 minutes
• Turner vs. Bahamondes Prediction

Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo

• Women’s strawweight
• Expected start time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Lemos Projection: 44.5 Significant Strikes
• Lucindo Projections: 51.5 Significant Strikes, 74.5 Fantasy Score
• Lemos vs. Lucindo Prediction

King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy

• Lightweight
• Expected start time: 10 p.m. ET
• Green Projection: 47.5 Significant Strikes
• Ruffy Projections: 48.5 Significant Strikes, 97.5 Fantasy Score
• Fight Time Projection: 10.75 minutes
• Green vs. Ruffy Prediction

Alex Pereira (c) vs. Magomed Ankalaev: Pick & Preview

Since Alex Pereira has entered the octagon, aside from his lone UFC loss in the rematch against Israel Adesanya, it’s been smooth sailing. Of his 10 fights in the UFC, six have had title implications. This guy only knows big time fights.

His opposition, Magomed Ankalaev, is no stranger to being in big fights either, as he has now had seven straight bouts either headlining a Fight Night or being on the main card for a numbered event. 

Where it stands, no one has given much of a challenge to Pereira in the striking department. Ankalaev isn’t a huge wrestler, but he may become one when he gets a taste of Pereira’s power. In his last three fights, Ankalaev has only attempted a single takedown, but when he was in trouble against Jan Blachowicz as he headlined UFC 282, he shot 10 times — netting two takedowns.

Pereira vs. Ankalaev Prediction: Pereira 15 Fight Time (Mins)

• In Pereira’s 10 UFC fights, 6-of-10 have finished in less than 15 minutes.
• Pereira has 10 career MMA TKO/KOs.
• In Ankalaev’s last 10 completed fights, 5-of-10 have finished in less than 15 minutes.
• Ankalaev has 11 career MMA TKO/KOs.

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Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev: Pick & Preview

Justin Gaethje was originally slated to fight Dan Hooker, but a hand injury a week before the bout shook things up. Now, on short notice, Rafel Fiziev will take his place, and thankfully for fans who like carnage inside the octagon  — this rematch should feature just that.

Gaethje is a fan favorite, and for good reason. He’s had 13 UFC fights, and 13 Fight of the Night bonuses to show for it. Six of which would be nominated for Fight of the Year, with four of them taking the fight of the year award home. 

Fiziev only had one fight between the last time he lost in a decision to Gaethje, and that was on the wrong end of a KO loss. Gaethje had two fights in between, but his most recent was also on the wrong end of a KO loss. 

An aging Gaethje off a rough loss, and a Fiziev that’s already lost this fight once with a full camp and returning from a lengthy layoff yields itself to be a coin flip in the co-main event.

Gaethje vs. Fiziev Prediction: Fiziev 13.5 Fight Time (Mins)

• Gaethje has 26 pro wins, and 21 of them were decided inside the distance.
• Six of Gaethje’s last 10 fights did not make it out of the second round.
• Fiziev has 12 pro wins, and nine of them were decided inside the distance.
• However, four of Fiziev’s last nine career UFC fights have gone to decision.
• Both fighters were knocked out in their previous bout.

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Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes: Pick & Preview

Before we get to the Gaethje vs. Fiziev rematch that we expect to be another banger, we have this one that also has all the makings of banging. 

If you’re not big on the ground game, Jalin Turner would love to fight you. Turner is seldom outdone on the feet, and outside of Dan Hooker, he has been able to crumble anyone who wants to stand and bang with him.

If you don’t know him yet, this fight should give you a great brief on Bahamondes as a fighter. He’s got superb striking, landing 7.47 significant strikes a minute, and has 47% accuracy on his strikes. 

For the sake of comparison, that’s more significant strikes landed per minute than the likes of Max Holloway (7.16), Sean O’Malley (6.7), Dan Hooker (5.03), and Dustin Poirier (5.3), just to name a few.

Turner vs. Bahamondes Prediction: Bahamondes 55.5 Significant Strikes

• Turner absorbs 4.57 Significant Strikes a minute.
• Bahamondes lands 7.47 Significant Strikes a minute.
• With the fight projected to go 11.5 minutes (via PrizePicks), if he keeps his average, Bahamondes would be at 85.9 Significant Strikes
• Both fighters average less than one combined takedown per 15 minutes — so this fight could be mostly on the feet.

Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo: Pick & Preview

Since her UFC debut loss, Iasmin Lucindo has got it going. She has now won four consecutive fights and quickly climbed up the rankings, coming into this fight at No. 7 in the Women's Strawweight division.

This will be Lucindo’s toughest test yet, as she gets to see No. 5 ranked Amanda Lemos who is fresh off a loss and looking to get back to winning ways.

Given their current career trajectories, Lucindo seems like the more dangerous fighter, but there is a massive experience and age gap at play for the bout. 

Lucindo is on the very young end of the spectrum, coming into this bout at just 23 years old, whereas Lemos can be found on the opposite end, still fighting at the age of 37.

Lemos vs. Lucindo Prediction: Lucindo 51.5 Significant Strikes

• Lucindo averages 58 Significant Strikes in her bouts that go the distance.
• Lemos absorbs 3.87 Significant Strikes a minute, and has a below UFC average 44% Significant Strike Defense.

King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy: Pick & Preview

To kick off the UFC 313 main card we get to see a UFC veteran in King Green make sure newcomer Mauricio Ruffy is worthy and ready to fight those that have a ranking next to their name.

Green — despite being 38 years old — is no pushover, just ask Grant Dawson. In a similar situation to Ruffy, Dawson in 2023 needed a win to show he was worthy of a ranking and Green slept him in just 33 seconds. Now he’s rattled off four straight to finally crack the top 15. 

Ruffy should be aware Green is no slouch and could derail his timeline just as we saw happen with Dawson. Ruffy is a serious contender, boasting 10-of-11 wins in his pro career with TKOs, with the sole non-finish coming in his last bout against James Llontop who did not make weight, and even then many say he let off the gas.

Green should stand with him as he does everyone, keeping a low guard and trash talking early to get into the head of Ruffy.

Green vs. Ruffy Prediction: 10.75 Fight Time (Mins)

• Of Ruffy’s 12 career fights, 10 have finished in less than 10.75 minutes.
• However, both of the fights that went more than 10.75 minutes have come since he joined the UFC ranks — in Dana White’s contender series and at UFC 309.
• Green’s last 7-of-10 fights finished in less than 10.75 minutes.

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Cash in on UFC 313 Tonight on PrizePicks

With UFC 313 set to bring us exciting fights on Saturday night, be sure you’ve locked in your UFC Lineups on PrizePicks — it’s the easiest way to get real money action on UFC 313. Just go to the MMA board, pick two or more fighter projections from above — or anything else on the PrizePicks board — and lock in your Lineup.

With discounts on Alex Pereira and Justin Gaethje’s significant strikes on PrizePicks, it’s even easier to cash in on tonight’s UFC 313 main card on PrizePicks.

With a stacked card featuring multiple fan favorites and top-ranked fighters, and a title bout to round us out, it will be an electrifying night of fights in the T-Mobile Arena for UFC 313.

Head to the PrizePicks app, pick More or Less on two or more fighters, lock in your picks, and get ready for the sweat during UFC 313.