UFC 309 Predictions: Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic & Main Card Picks
On Saturday, we have one man considered the greatest UFC fighter of all-time vs. another man considered the greatest Heavyweight of all-time going at it for the Heavyweight belt in Madison Square Garden in UFC 309. It doesn’t get much better than that.
It’s time to lock in for UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic. Below, we’ll bring you Jones vs. Miocic predictions, plus picks and predictions for the entire UFC 309 main card picks from PrizePicks.
UFC 309 is set to be an electrifying night, with the title fight between current Heavyweight champ Jon Jones and former champ Stipe Miocic headlining. The main card is set to start at 10 p.m. ET, with the Jones vs. Miocic fight expected to start around 12:00 a.m. ET, depending on the other fights.
Below, we’ll cover who’s fighting in UFC 309, the picks and analysis for each main card fight, plus PrizePicks projections for the big fights on Saturday night.
Keep an eye out for UFC Discounts on the PrizePicks MMA board and on the PrizePicks X account.
UFC 309 Predictions & Start Times: Jones vs. Miocic
UFC 309 will start at 10 p.m. ET with the main card prelims on Saturday, November 16, while the Jones vs. Miocic main event is expected to start at 12 a.m. ET — subject to change based on other fights before it.
UFC 309 projections are via the PrizePicks MMA board as of Thursday at 11 p.m. ET but are subject to change until lock.
Here’s the UFC 309 main card schedule, in reverse order.
Jon Jones (c) vs. Stipe Miocic – Main Event
- Heavyweight title fight
- Expected start time: 12:00 a.m. ET
- Fight Time projection: 9.75 minutes (PrizePicks)
- Jon Jones projections: 42.5 Significant Strikes, 117.5 Fantasy Score, 2.5 Takedowns
- Stipe Miocic projections: 29.5 Significant Strikes
- Jones vs. Miocic Prediction
Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira – Co-Main Event
- Co-main event
- Lightweight
- Expected start time: 11:30 p.m. ET
- Fight Time projection: 7.5 minutes (PrizePicks)
- Michael Chandler projection: 28.5 Significant Strikes
- Charles Oliveira projections: 30.5 Significant Strikes, 114.5 Fantasy Score
- Chandler vs. Oliveira Prediction
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
- Middleweight
- Expected start time: 11:00 p.m. ET
- Fight Time projection: 4.75 minutes (PrizePicks)
- Bo Nickal projections: 17.5 Significant Strikes, 116.5 Fantasy Score, 1.5 Takedowns
- Paul Craig projection: 9.5 Significant Strikes
- Nickal vs. Craig Prediction
Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva
- Flyweight
- Expected start time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Vivane Araujo projection: 38.5 Significant Strikes
- Karine Silva projection: 46.5 Significant Strikes, 78.5 Fantasy Score
- Araujo vs. Silva Prediction
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
- Middleweight
- Expected start time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Fight Time projection: 9.75 minutes (PrizePicks)
- Mauricio Ruffy projection: 44.5 Significant Strikes, 114.5 Fantasy Score
- James Llontop projections: 35.5 Significant Strikes
- Ruffy vs. Llontop Prediction
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Jon Jones (c) vs. Stipe Miocic: Prediction & Preview
Jon Jones is considered by many, including UFC CEO Dana White, to be the greatest fighter to ever live. He holds the title for youngest UFC champion ever, obtaining the gold at the age of 21, and arguably has yet to truly lose a fight ever since that day 13 years ago.
Even with those asterisks next to his record, he comes in at 27-1-1, and has the most title fight wins in UFC history with 15.
Stipe Miocic, Jones’ headlining opponent, is a formidable wrestler and power puncher known as the most decorated heavyweight in UFC history. With a professional record of 20-4, Miocic is best known for his two victories over legend Daniel Cormier in their trilogy title bouts, along with boasting the most ever KOs in Heavyweight Title fights and most Heavyweight Title defenses.
The showdown between Jones and Miocic has long been anticipated, originally slated for November 2023. For Jones, it's a chance to solidify his heavyweight legacy and show the world he’s still got it, while Miocic looks to reclaim the belt and etch his name further into MMA history and the Heavyweight GOAT discussion.
Many believe Jones has far more to lose and far less to gain in this matchup. The oddsmakers believe so too, with Jones being heavily favored. In his return to the octagon in 2023, they gave Jones a man who cleared out the division in Ciryl Gane, and he made easy work of him.
There aren’t many people that believe the same won’t happen to Stipe, who has been inactive since his 2021 KO loss to Francis Ngannou.
Jones vs. Miocic Prediction: Jones MORE than 9.75 Mins Fight Time
So now the case has been laid to what points to a Jones manhandling, I actually like the contrarian pick of More than 9.75 mins of fight time. Both men’s most recent outing didn’t make it that late, but let’s look past the recency.
Prior to his most recent, Miocic had three of four go to Round 4 (20+ mins) or later. More absurdly, Jones had nine straight go past the second round before the Gane fight.
I don’t believe time and age has made either man more dangerous or prone to be finished, so this one going into the third or beyond makes too much sense to me when you look at their broader body of work.
Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira: Prediction & Preview
These two men have seen each other before, and both have maintained their status among the top of the division since their original bout. Their first encounter took place at UFC 262 in May 2021, where Oliveira knocked out Chandler in the second round to win the vacant lightweight belt.
Chandler initially rocked Oliveira in the first round and came close to finishing the fight, some judges would have called it, but Oliveira’s resilience and quick recovery turned the tables. Early in the second round, Oliveira landed a precise left hook, leading to a barrage of accurate head strikes and a KO victory, securing him the title.
It’s likely Chandler comes out how he typically does — swinging. UFC fans love watching this guy fight because he often throws caution to the wind and goes to war. In his professional career, 78% of his 23 wins have not made it to the judge’s decision.
Oliveira is also no stranger to producing fight of the year nominations, but the bulk of his highlight finishes come from the ground. Across 34 fights wins, 29% have been knockouts to his 62% being KOs.
Between these two warriors 75 professional fights, only 13 have gone to the final bell. If Chandler doesn’t catch Oliveira early with something, and see it through to the finish, he’ll most likely fall victim to the well-rounded danger of Oliveira and lose again.
How well rounded or how dangerous you may ask? Enough to boast the record for most finishes in UFC history.
Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira Pick: Oliveira MORE than 7.5 Mins Fight Time
While it feels crazy taking these two bangers to go more on fight time, it is Chandler's only path to victory and he knows it. Oliveira is too resilient for Chandler to go full blitzkrieg on and burn himself out. He tried it once and he ended up in the losing column.
Now with a camp focused on outlasting in a marathon versus his typical sprint, Chandler looks like a guy ready and willing to play for the later rounds. He also looks like a guy that could compete in a body building competition tomorrow, he is absolutely lean and shredded ahead of this matchup.
Five of Oliveira's last eight fights have gone past this mark, he has never been a fighter to rush things or expose himself looking for a finish. I see his defense holding up again, but this time, Chandler will also look to employ better defense and less reckless offense, leading to a fight that goes deeper than their previous encounter.
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig: Prediction & Preview
Bo Nickal took the UFC by storm. After his first fight lasting just over a single minute on Dana White's Contender Series, he was not awarded a contract. Dana needed to see more. The next guy last 52 seconds. Dana had seen enough and gave him the contract.
Now, three fights later, Nickal still hasn’t seen the third round, and every time gets a better opponent. If you recognize his name, it could be because he previously dominated collegiate wrestling, being named the NCAA Division 1 National Champion three times.
His opponent, Paul Craig, is seemingly the perfect match for Nickal. Another guy who doesn’t care to make it to a judge’s decision, only doing so once in his 18 UFC fights. Paul Craig has also submitted someone in five of those fights, so Nickal isn’t going up against a ground game slouch by any means.
Even with a history of seeing a lot of different looks and styles in his tenure, Paul Craig will most likely be outclassed in every area of the game, and unless Nickal gets overzealous and makes a costly mistake, he should walk away still undefeated.
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig Pick: Nickal LESS than 4.75 Mins Fight Time
As time has passed, the aging Paul Craig’s chin has gotten more fragile. He’s still as dangerous as anyone off his back, but Bo Nickal’s wrestling is truly world class. Craig is dangerous off his back; in fact, he is still the only man to defeat 20-1 Magomed Ankalaev, but that was after he endured nearly three full rounds of being completely outclassed.
Nickal is green, but has seen a lot of wrestling at a high level in his college days. While I’m confident he won’t make a mistake, even if he does before the first round concludes, this would still cash on PrizePicks.
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Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva: Prediction & Preview
This one has all the makings of a veteran gatekeeper versus an up-and-coming prospect. Viviane Araujo has been in the top 15 most of her career; despite winning just two of her last six fights, she stills sits ranked at #9.
On the other hand, Silva has been climbing up through the ranks. Winning four in a row in the UFC, pushing her professional win steak to nine, and currently sitting at rank #11. A win over Araujo would give some legitimacy to her campaign and put her comfortably in the top ten.
Silva thankfully just experienced a full 15-minute bout to prove her cardio could hold up, as in her previous three matches, submitted the opposition, all within the first round. If it goes to the ground, which is likely, I don’t see the younger Silva making any mistakes; she’ll should be far better on the mat, despite Araujo's willingness to take it to the ground.
Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva Pick: Silva LESS than 46.5 Significant Strikes
As Silva has blazed her way up the ranks — her last outing vs. Lipski was telling in regards to her striking. She is incredibly dangerous in the women's Flyweight division, but not incredibly accurate. In the three-round affair she was 27-of-75 on significant strikes. In her debut fight just two years ago, she was 23-of-75.
If you take all of her UFC fights, she sits at 77-of-206 on significant strikes, landing just 37.3% of her strikes. Given her accuracy thus far in her UFC campaign, she’d need to throw 126 Significant Strikes to clear this projection.
In Araujo’s last fight, her opponent threw 128 Significant Strikes, only landing 38. Combine Silva's lack of volume and inaccuracy with what is seemingly a sound defense from Araujo, and I don’t see her coming near landing 46.5.
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop: Prediction & Preview
Two guys who both entered the UFC this year — who have both seen differing levels of success in doing so — are the first to fight the UFC 309 Main Card.
Ruffy, a Dana White Contender Series grad, made his UFC debut in May and made quick work of the respectable Jamie Mullarkey, finishing him in Round 1.
Llontop, also a DWCS grad, began his UFC campaign in April, as he was submitted in the first round. He quickly got back to work in August, only to be on the wrong side of a split decision loss.
It’s a fight that feels like a must-win for Llontop if he wants to stick around, and one in which Ruffy will be equally motivated after struggling to find an opponent.
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop Pick: Ruffy LESS than 9.75 Fight Time Mins
As mentioned, these guys both have reasons to be extra motivated. Lloyd needs to prove his worth to the organization, and will not want to let the judges decide his fate. Ruffy wants to prove the early debut win wasn’t a fluke and he’s ready to bang with the best of them.
Ruffy, the clear favorite, has also ended 8 of his previous 9 professional fights in under this 9.75 minutes projection.
Pick Your UFC 309 Fighters on PrizePicks
With less than a day until UFC 309, make sure you’ve locked in your UFC Lineups on PrizePicks, the easiest way to get real money action on UFC DFS. Just go to the MMA board, pick two or more projections from above — or anything else on the MMA board — and lock in your Lineup.
With a stacked card and a title fight filled with both legends of the sport and rising stars alike, it will be an electrifying night of fights in the historic Madison Square Garden.
Head to the PrizePicks app, pick more or less on two or more fighters, lock in your picks, and get ready for the sweat during UFC 309.
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