UFC 311 Predictions: Makhachev vs. Moicano & Main Card Picks for PrizePicks

36 hours before Islam Makhachev was set to defend his belt against Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 311, Tsarukyan dropped out due to back issues. Dana White worked quickly to find a replacement, bumping up Renato Moicano to face Makhachev, leaving Beneil Dariush without a fight this weekend. 

Despite the drama, on Saturday we’ll still get treated to a double title bout card in UFC 311, with the Lightweight belt up for grabs in the main event of the evening, and the Bantamweight belt on the line for the co-main event. Live from Inglewood, California in the Intuit Dome, it should be an electric first UFC PPV of 2025.

It’s time to lock in for UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano. Below, we’ll bring you main event predictions, plus picks and predictions for the entire UFC 311 main card, including top picks for PrizePicks.

UFC 311 is set to be an electrifying night, with both the Lightweight and Bantamweight belt up for grabs. The main card is set to start at 10 p.m. ET, with the Makhachev vs. Moicano fight expected to start around 12 a.m. ET, depending on the other fights.

Click here to go straight to our UFC 311 Main Card Predictions.

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UFC 311 Card, Start Times, Projections: Makhachev vs Moicano

UFC 311 will start at 10 p.m. ET with the main card prelims on Saturday, January 18, while the Makhachev vs Moicano main event is expected to start at 12 a.m. ET — subject to change based on other fights before it.

UFC 311 projections are via the PrizePicks MMA board as of Thursday at 9 p.m. ET, but are subject to change until lock. 

Here’s the UFC 311 main card schedule, in reverse order.

Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Renato Moicano – Main Event

• Main event
• Lightweight title fight
• Expected start time: 12 a.m. ET
• Makhachev Projections: 38.5 Significant Strikes, 115.5 Fantasy Score
• Moicano Projection: 30.5 Significant Strikes
• Fight Time Projection: 9.5 minutes‍
• Makhachev (c) vs. Moicano Prediction

Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov – Co-Main Event 

• Co-main event
• Bantamweight title fight
• Expected start time: 11:30 p.m. ET
• Dvalishvili Projections: 84.5 Significant Strikes
• Nurmagomedov Projections: 90.5 Significant Strikes, 2.5 Takedowns, 118.5 Fantasy Score
• Dvalishvili (c) vs. Nurmagomedov Prediction

Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill

• Light Heavyweight
• Expected start time: 11 p.m. ET
• Prochazka Projection: 40.5 Significant Strikes
• Hill Projections: 39.5 Significant Strikes, 78.5 Fantasy Score
• Fight Time Projection: 9.75 minutes
• Prochazka vs. Hill Prediction

Jailton Almeida vs. Sergey Spivak

• Heavyweight
• Expected start time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Almeida Projections: 19.5 Significant Strikes, 2 Takedowns, 104.5 Fantasy Score
• Spivak Projections: 15.5 Significant Strikes
• Fight Time Projection: 7.5 minutes
• Almeida vs. Spivak Prediction

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

• Middleweight
• Expected start time: 10 p.m. ET
• Holland Projection: 37.5 Significant Strikes
• Ridder Projection: 34.5 Significant Strikes, 2.5 Takedowns, 68.5 Fantasy Score
• Fight Time Projection: 11 minutes
• Holland vs. Ridder Prediction

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Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Renato Moicano: Pick & Preview

Islam had already made weight and was waiting for his opponent, Arman Tsarukyan, to do the same. Then seemingly out of the blue, rumors began to swirl and within an hour they were confirmed — Tsarukyan couldn’t make weight, reportedly due to a back injury, and Moicano would face the champ. Moicano quickly went from having a very winnable matchup against a fading Beneil Dariush, to now being the biggest underdog on the entire card.

To his credit, Moicano has won four-straight fights — three inside the distance. Two of the four opponents are currently in the top 15, so Moicano has certainly seen fights at a high level. He’s been a staple veteran in the UFC, fighting frequently since 2014, but this is by far and away his toughest test. 

Moicano's most frequent path to victory in his career has been by submission. He is now against a fighter in which that seems astronomically unlikely, as Islam has only ever been taken down twice in his UFC career on 22 attempts. If this fight was a decade ago Moicano may have actually boded better, as now Islam’s striking is no longer a point of weakness for the champ.

Makhachev vs. Moicano Prediction: Makhachev LESS than 9.5 Fight Time (Mins)

Props should be given to the champ Islam Makhachev for accepting a last minute opponent at random. Props should also be given to Renato Moicano to agree to face the man that is now being billed as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, edging out Jon Jones.

What better way to represent the division as champ and prove you are more dangerous than Jon Jones, than an absolute dismantling of a guy who isn't even top 5 in your weight class?

Of Islam’s last six fights, he has finished his opponent four times in less than this projection. Without a full camp to prepare for the onslaught of Makhachev, I don’t see Moicano making it out of the first round, let alone surviving for 9.75 minutes. 

Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov: Pick & Preview

Merab Dvalishvili was a champion in the ROC organization, but his UFC debut came with some adversity, losing his first two fights back to back. Since then, he has won 11 straight including his most recent domination of Sean O’Malley en route to becoming the UFC Bantamweight champion.

His opposition, Umar Nurmagomedov — has yet to feel a setback. He’s won in every organization he’s fought in, and his UFC stint has netted him five-straight wins in four years. While Merab’s last five fights have been littered with both former champions and legends in the weight class, only one of Umar’s wins has been over a ranked opponent. 

Many, including Merab himself, have questioned if Umar’s last name — Nurmagomedov — let him skip the line, as many fighters that are hot, higher ranked, and even former champions are seemingly more deserving of a title shot. 

You could argue that the name is indeed worthy of the fast pass, as he is the older brother of Bellator fighter Usman Nurmagomedov, and a cousin to former UFC Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. 

All that to be said, Umar is actually a deep favorite to have his hand raised at the conclusion of this bout. What Merab has over him in experience, Umar has exponentially more in raw ability. Merab is also a less scary fighter on paper, seen by his four finishes across 22 fights compared to Umar’s nine finishes in 18 fights, including five in the first round. 

Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov Pick: Dvalishvili LESS than 85.5 Significant Strikes

Too much has to go right for this to hit. Merab has won his fights by constant pressure, draping himself over his opponent, and peppering them all fight long. Here, against Umar, that plan may not work so easily. 

Umar is better in the striking department, so Merab will have to be careful if he wants to exchange blows. While this is a five-round fight, I could also see most of this fight showcasing elite levels of wrestling, takedowns, and vying for positioning. 

Umar comes in far more green, but has a world class camp that the Nurmagomedov’s receive. He will be prepared and have a great gameplan to counter Merab, and be able to execute it. Stylistically, guys like Sean O’Malley who Merab took the belt from, do not do well against individuals that put striking second and instead would rather make it a dirty wrestling match. Umar bodes well against this type of fighter, and should be able to match the pace and pressure of Merab. 

Both fighters' takedown projection on PrizePicks is set at 2.5, indicating that there could be a whole lot of emphasis on everything but the striking itself. At 85.5 Significant Strikes, I just see too many paths to this fight concluding in a variety of ways that don’t include Merab striking Umar this much. 

In his last bout, that went all five rounds, he landed for 82 Significant Strikes, and in that one, counter-wrestling was not even a concern.

Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill: Pick & Preview

Jiri is one of the most unique fighters to have graced the octagon. His fighting style pays homage to traditional martial arts, his striking resembles karate, and he fights with an open guard. His strikes come in from absurd angles, he fights with a lot of pace, and it’s tough to predict what he will do next. He also frequently throws caution to the wind, and — much to the pleasure of UFC fans — he finishes his opponents at a high rate. 

In the opposing corner, you have former UFC Champion Jamahal Hill. Hill was a right place right time Champion, only having to get past an aging Glover Teixeira, but he is still a former champ nonetheless. Hill’s style is more boxing-centric, emphasizing precision and technical striking. He’s not foreign to finishing either, as just like Jiri, he does not see many judges' scorecards. 

Stylistically opposites, yet the same when it comes to wanting to finish fights — Jiri and Hill have a combined five decisions over their 44 professional wins. Hill brings in four of them across 11 fights, as Jiri boasts just a single decision in 30 of his wins. 

Another commonality both fighters share is in their recent losses. The only man that has handed either fighter a loss in over four years is current Champion Alex Pereira. He is also both fighters' most recent opponent. This feels like a must-win spot for both men to maintain their share of title fight considerations. 

Prochazka vs. Hill Pick: Hill LESS than 9.75 Mins Fight Time

Prochazka has had six fights in the UFC, and all but one was decided in less than 9.75 minutes. Hill has had eight fights in the UFC, and five of them have been decided in less than 9.75 minutes. 

Here you can get what seems like a projection that makes sense even a few minutes less as both these competitors are so wildly dangerous. 

Usually a less on Jiri’s fight times is attractive because of what he is capable of, but here he meets a man that is equally capable of getting him out of there. 27 professional first round finishes between these two competitors is no joke, I don’t see this one making it even halfway through the second round. 

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Jailton Almeida vs. Sergey Spivak: Pick & Preview

Many Heavyweight fight fans thought this one should be on the main card, and the monkey paw curled. Now, with Moicano fighting Makhachev and Dariush without an opponent, we get to see these two go at it a little later in the night. 

Since mid 2020, Spivak has won seven fights and lost just two. Both losses being to former Champ Ciryl Gane, and current interim Champ Tom Aspinall. In the other corner, Almeida, since his UFC career began in 2021, has won seven fights and lost just one. 

Both men have been staples for banger fights in the UFC with an insane 26 first round finishes between the two. They also don’t mind getting it done from anywhere as Almeida has 7 wins by knockout and 13 by sub, whereas Spivak has 7 wins by knockout and 8 by sub. 

As far as big men go, this one's highly likely to end up with a lot of grappling and wrestling — with Almeida having the advantage on the ground and Spivak being better if he can keep the fight standing. 

Almeida vs. Spivak Pick: Almeida MORE than 2 Takedowns

Fun fact, the only time Almeida hasn’t had two or more takedowns is in the ground wins he has in which all it took was one takedown to end the fight. All signs point to, if Spivak survives the first takedown, he’ll get taken down again. 

Spivak has shown he’s no slouch in defending some takedowns here and there, and occasionally even going for them himself, but Almeida is otherworldly in the ground game. He currently sits at first all time in the UFC record book in control time percentage (88.3%) and top position percentage (80.8%). 

The #6 ranked and #7 ranked Heavyweights going at it should be a fun one, but I see Almieda doing what he’s always done, especially in fights he doesn’t have the edge in the standing game, and that’s attempt and land a whole lot of takedowns.  

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder: Pick & Preview

You may be hard pressed to find someone who just loves fighting more than Kevin Holland. Since 2020, Kevin Holland has fought 18 times, good for the most active fighter in the sport. With that type of volume, you know he isn’t cherry picking his preferred opponents, he just wants to throw down with anyone anytime he gets a chance to. 

His opponent in this one is no slouch, being billed as a clone of Middleweight champ Dricus Du Plessis. If Ridder can get this one on the ground, he should find great success in his second UFC fight of his career, but Holland should have a large advantage when standing.

Fighting Holland in just your second fight is a tough ask, but a win here could continue Ridder’s fast track to the top 15. Holland is known to show up big in some fights, and then curiously fight for a paycheck in some fights — so this one could just come down to if Holland is billing it in, or if he is hungry for a bounce-back win. 

Holland vs. Ridder Pick: Ridder MORE than 2.5 Takedowns

Holland’s path to victory is winning on his feet. Ridder’s path to victory is avoiding this fight being decided standing up at all costs. Ridder should shoot for takedowns early and often, just as he has always done, averaging 6.39 takedowns per 15 minutes. 

Holland’s takedown defense isn’t great either, with him only stuffing 54% of attempts. Of all fighters that have attempted seven or more takedowns against Holland, all have cleared this projection: Vettori went 11-for-17, Brunson went 6/12, Stewart went 3/8, Meershaert went 6/11, and Santos went 3/7. 

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Cash in on Your UFC 311 Predictions on PrizePicks

Despite the switch from Tsarukyan to Moicano in the main event, UFC 311 is still a loaded fight card with some of the best fighters in the world, including Islam Makhachev, set for some exciting fights.

With UFC 311 fast approaching, make sure you’ve locked in your UFC Lineups on PrizePicks — it’s the easiest way to get real money action on UFC311. Just go to the MMA board, pick two or more fighter projections from above — or anything else on the PrizePicks board — and lock in your Lineup.

With a stacked card with multiple fan favorites and top-ranked opponents, on top of two title fights to boot, it will be an electrifying night of fights in the Intuit Dome for UFC 311.

Head to the PrizePicks app, pick more or less on two or more fighters, lock in your picks, and get ready for the sweat during UFC 311.