UFC 306 Predictions: Suga Sean vs Dvalishvili & Main Card Picks
Hearing all the hype around the first ever live sports event in the Las Vegas Sphere? Need to know who’s set to fight at UFC 306 and what picks are available? Lock in for the UFC 306 Noche: Suga Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili main card preview and projections.
UFC 306 is set to be an electrifying night, with the title fight between Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley and No. 1 Bantamweight contender Merab Dvalishvili headlining. The main card is set to start at 10 p.m. ET, with the Sean vs Merab fight expected to start around 12:30 a.m. ET, depending on the other fights.
Below, we’ll cover who’s fighting in UFC 306, analysis for each main card fight, and PrizePicks picks and projections for the big fights on Saturday night.
Be sure to stay tuned to PrizePicks socials for some behind the scenes from O'Malley's camp and lock in the Protect the Zero free play on O’Malley on PrizePicks. Just pick more or less on two fighters and build a lineup before the main card starts!
UFC 306 Card, Start Times, Projections: O’Malley vs Dvalishvili
The prelims for UFC 306 will start at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 14, while the PPV main card is expected to start at 10 p.m. ET. Times are subject to change, but expect the main event fight between Suga Sean and Dvalishvili to start around 12:30 a.m. ET.
Projections are via the PrizePicks MMA board as of Friday at 2 p.m. ET but are subject to change
Here’s the UFC 306 main card schedule, in reverse order.
Sean O’Malley (c) vs Merab Dvalishvili
- Main event
- Bantamweight title fight
- Expected start time: 12:30 a.m. ET
- Sean O’Malley projections: 85.5 Significant Strikes
- Merab Dvalishvili projections: 85.5 Significant Strikes, 91.5 Fantasy Score
Alexa Grasso (c) vs Valentina Shevchenko
- Co-main event
- Women Flyweight
- Expected start time: 11:40 p.m. ET
- Alexa Grasso projection: 85.5 Significant Strikes, 86.5 Fantasy Score
- Vlentina Shevchenko projections: 78.5 Significant Strikes, 4.0 Takedowns
Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes
- Main card
- Featherweight
- Expected start time: 11:10 p.m. ET
- Fight TIme projection: 12.5 minutes (PrizePicks)
- Brian Ortega projections: 47.5 Significant Strikes
- Diego Lopes projection: 53.5 Significant Strikes, 94.5 Fantasy Score
Daniel Zellhuber vs Esteban Ribovics
- Main card
- Lightweight
- Expected start time: 10:40 p.m. ET
- Daniel Zellhuber projection: 75.5 Significant Strikes, 89.5 Fantasy Score
- Esteban Ribovics projections: 65.5 Significant Strikes
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Ode Osbourne
- Main card
- Flyweight
- Expected start time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Fight Time projections: 10.5 minutes (PrizePicks)
- Ronaldo Rodriguez projection: 35.5 Significant Strikes, 92.5 Fantasy Score
- Ode Osbourne projection: 40.5 Significant Strikes
Sean O’Malley (c) vs Merab Dvalishvili Preview
Merab wants to take opponents down and throw them around. O’Malley wants to stay on his feet and pick you apart. These two styles are not complementary to each other, and it should make for a thrilling main event.
Merab’s last fight against Henry Cejudo, an olympic gold medalist in wrestling, Merab out wrestled Cejudo – going 5-for-11 on takedowns to Cejudo’s 1-for-7. The fight before that, Merab ran up the numbers on Petr Yan, landing 11 takedowns on a draining 49 attempts.
O’Malley, for contrast, has one takedown attempt in his last 11 fights combined.
O’Malley is a tremendous striker, but his greatest strength lies in his distance management. He’s elite in keeping the threat at bay and landing accurate shots without getting himself in trouble on the return fire. Merab will look to bully and blitz his way through this distance, hoping his chin can hold up long enough to turn the fight into the type that he stylistically thrives in.
In UFC 292 however, Aljamain Sterling had a similar path to victory and O’Malleys take down defense held up… Aljo’s chin did not.
In what could be a coin toss fight, the outside factors favor O’Malley. Many reports have emerged that Merab had a staph infection recently, meaning he will be on antibiotics – impacting his stamina, one of his best assets towards his suffocating pressure.
Merab also opened up a cut above his eye in his training camp, another factor to consider in the bout.
Sean O’Malley (c) vs Merab Dvalishvili pick: Dvalishvili LESS than 91.5 Fantasy Score
O’Malley will do what he’s always done best, keep his distance, stay out of harm's way, and pick his opposition apart. The extraneous factors here are stacked against Merab and it will all prove too much – I’m taking the Dvalishvili Less than 91.5 Fantasy Score.
Alexa Grasso (c) vs Valentina Shevchenko Preview
These two have now been on the opposite side of the octagon against each other for what will be three straight fights. The first result was a Grasso submission win, followed by a controversial draw that many think was a Shevchenko win.
Unfortunately for Shevchenko, it seems as though father time is unstoppable. You hate to pick against one of the UFC women's division GOATs in Shevchenko, but the nearly 37-year-old could be in for a troublesome night against the younger 31-year-old Grasso, who is currently at the peak of her career.
Alexa Grasso (c) vs Valentina Shevchenko Pick: Shevchenko LESS than 4.0 Takedowns
In four straight fights, Shevchenko has landed 4 or less takedowns. Her opponent knows her well here and I predict Grasso will be able to stuff many of the attempts as she has thrown in the past.
Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes Preview
Alot of people wrote Ortega off following his two year hiatus. He put the doubters to bed, getting a submission victory over the man who beat him prior to his break. Ortega has now been fighting in the UFC for ten years, but the gas is still there both on the feet and on the ground. His opposition in Lopes, has less time in the UFC than Ortega’s break was long. Veteranship aside, Lopes however is favored here and rightfully so – he’s also dangerous on both the feet and ground with recent inside the distance wins utilizing both.
Many foresee this fight as one that kicks off Ortega becoming a gatekeeper to up and coming new blood cracking into the top ten rankings.
Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes Pick: Diego Lopes LESS than 12.5 Fight Time Mins
Three of Lopes’ last four have been finished in the first round, and Ortega is no slouch in the fights ending early department either. Give me one of these men to end it early, even with me being torn who will be the victor. I’m not so sure Ortega is ready to become a gatekeeper but Lopes is dangerous.
Daniel Zellhuber vs Esteban Ribovics Preview
This one has the making to be a great striking showcase. Zellhuber fights well behind his jab and is riding a three-fight win streak. Ribovics is no slouch on the feet either and is hoping his momentum in his last fight where he knocked out Terrance McKinney early will transfer over.
While Zellhuber is favored, Ribovics actually grades better in the striking department at +2.71 strike differential per minute to Zellhuber’s +.80. This one’s bound to be a fist fight through and through, with PrizePicks setting both men’s projections above 65 – Ribovics at 65.5 and Zellhuber at 75.5.
Daniel Zellhuber vs Esteban Ribovics Pick: Esteban Ribovics MORE than 65.5 Significant Strikes
In what I see being a fairly even striking fest, give me the man who has a higher strike differential per minute, and a lower projection he has to clear in the fight.
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Ode Osbourne Preview
Many UFC fans were surprised this one made it to the main card for a historic night of fighting in the sphere, but that could motivate both men to look for a spectacular finish.
Osbourne should look a little faster, but if history holds, Rodriguez will be more accurate in his shot selection and have the edge in grappling.
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Ode Osbourne Pick: Ronaldo Rodriguez MORE than 31.5 Significant Strikes
Rodriguez managed 31 significant strikes in his last outing and didn't make it to the third round. I can see a path where he easily clears the number here in a fight that should be mostly decided on the feet or in the clinch.
Pick Your UFC 306 Fighters on PrizePicks
With only a day until UFC 306, make sure you’ve locked in your lineups on PrizePicks. With a stacked card and a title fight for both the men’s bantamweight and women’s flyweight, it will be an electrifying night of fights in the Las Vegas Sphere
Head to the PrizePicks app, pick more or less on two or more fighters, lock in your picks, and get ready for a sweat during UFC 306.
Related PrizePicks Articles:
- When is Suga Sean O'Malley's Next Fight?
- NFL Week 2 Cheat Sheet for PrizePicks & DFS
- Week 2 NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Main Slate Top Matchups
Other resources from PrizePicks:
More Fresh Picks & Insights
When is Suga Sean O'Malley's Next Fight? & Record, Height, Weight
Suga Sean O'Malley acknowledges the fans before his UFC 292 Bantamweight title fight, Saturday, August 19, 2023, in Boston. O'Malley won the title via 2nd round KO. Suga Sean O'Malley's next fight will be at UFC 306. (AP Photo/Gregory Payan)
