MLB DFS Picks for October 17: MLB PrizePicks Today
The MLB Playoffs are heating up, as we have two Championship Series games on Thursday night. First, ALCS Game 3 between the Yankees and Guardians, as Cleveland’s seeking their first win. In the NL, we’ve got a make-or-break Game 4 between the Dodgers and Mets.
Below, we’ll give you today’s MLB DFS picks and player projections on PrizePicks across the two league championship series matchups today.
Don’t forget to head to the PrizePicks MLB board, lock in your picks, and submit your lineup to get in on the real money MLB action.
PrizePicks MLB Picks for October 17
- Yankees P Clarke Schmidt 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed — Less
- Guardians RF Steven Kwan 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs — Less
- Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman 1B 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs — Less
- Mets 1B Pete Alonso 0.5 Total Bases — More (Goblin)
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Yankees P Clarke Schmidt 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed — LESS
Time: 5:08 p.m. ET
Yankees right-handed pitcher Clarke Schmidt has been incredibly effective against left-handed hitters in his last 50 plate appearances, allowing just a 23% flyball rate and a 0% barrel rate. Overall, this season, Schmidt has continued to dominate lefties, allowing only a 5% barrel rate and a 28% flyball rate over 190+ plate appearances.
The Cleveland Guardians, known for their ability to stack their lineup with left-handed hitters, are projected to send out eight left-handed batters today. This could be an interesting dynamic, but Schmidt’s success against lefties puts the pressure on Cleveland.
In their last 40 plate appearances against right-handed sinkers — which Schmidt throws over 20% of the time — the Guardians have struggled, posting a 60% ground ball rate and a low .105 BABIP.
Look for Schmidt to continue his dominance and keep the Guardians in check in Game 3.
Guardians RF Steven Kwan 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs — Less
Time: 5:08 p.m. ET
Steven Kwan, one of the Guardians' left-handed hitters, has particularly poor numbers against right-handed sinkers. This season, in 45+ plate appearances, Kwan has a 0% barrel rate, a 51% ground ball rate, and a 32% hard-hit percentage against the pitch.
Additionally, in his last 65 plate appearances against right-handed cutters — which Schmidt throws nearly 40% of the time — Kwan owns a weak 2% barrel rate and a 20% hard-hit percentage, making him a vulnerable target for Schmidt’s pitch mix.
Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs — Less
Time: 9:08 p.m. ET
Mets starting pitcher José Quintana, a lefty, relies heavily on his sinker, throwing it a whopping 63% of the time, which is an increase of 12% from previous seasons. He’ll face Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers today, who has struggled mightily against left-handed sinkers.
In his last 55+ plate appearances against lefty sinkers, Freeman owns a 59% ground ball rate and just a 2% barrel rate.
This lefty-lefty matchup favors Quintana, who has been exceptional in recent outings, holding opposing left-handed hitters to a 1% barrel rate and a 8% flyball rate in his last appearances. It’s shaping up to be a tough day for Freeman against Quintana’s dominant sinker.
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Mets 1B Pete Alonso 0.5 Total Bases — More (Goblin)
Time: 9:08 p.m. ET
Dodgers' newly acquired pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, has been struggling in his recent outings. In his last appearances, he’s allowed a 10% barrel rate overall, but the numbers are worse against right-handed hitters. Over his last 200 plate appearances against righties, Yamamoto has given up a 54% hard-hit percentage and a 13% barrel rate.
A significant portion of this damage comes from his reliance on the four-seam fastball, which he throws nearly 40% of the time.
This matchup becomes particularly concerning for Yamamoto as he faces Pete Alonso of the New York Mets, who has been lethal against right-handed fastballs this season. In 130+ plate appearances, Alonso owns a 42% flyball rate, a 55% hard-hit percentage, and an impressive 18% barrel rate against the pitch.
Given Alonso's ability to crush fastballs, this will be a very difficult challenge for Yamamoto today, and Alonso could be in line for a big performance.
Note: Goblin picks reduce your payout on PrizePicks, as they are easier projections to hit
Lock in on PrizePicks MLB Today
You’ve got the MLB picks for today's MLB League Championship Series games, now it’s time to build your MLB Lineup on PrizePicks. All you have to do is pick more or less on at least two player projections to win real money on today’s MLB action.
With two games on today’s board, there’s always real money sports action waiting for you on PrizePicks. Use these picks, stay in the green, and cash out when the games are over.
Follow Shayne Trail for more MLB Picks: @ShayneTrail
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