MLB DFS Picks for PrizePicks Today: September 10, 2024
Find today’s top MLB DFS picks and player projections on PrizePicks for September 10, 2024, with every team taking the field today. Make your MLB picks on PrizePicks, get in on the action, and combine your picks with discounted projections during today’s Taco Tuesday promotion.
Whether you’re backing pitchers’s no run first inning projections or hitters to go yard, Tuesday's MLB matchups are stacked with opportunities. Below, we’ve got four picks to help you build your lineups.
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NRFI: Reynaldo Lopez + MacKenzie Gore 0.5 1st Inning Runs Allowed — LESS
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Atlanta Braves veteran Reynaldo López has been outstanding this season, filling in for Spencer Strider, particularly in the first inning. He’s pitched 21 no run first innings (NRFI) this season in 23 opportunities, with a perfect 10 no run first innings on the road.
Against the Washington Nationals, López has dominated, allowing just a .168 opponent expected batting average in 43 plate appearances.
Adding to López’s advantage, the Nationals have struggled offensively in the first inning, with a 115–28 NRFI record, achieving the NRFI 80% of the time as a team.
On the other side, Nationals' young ace MacKenzie Gore has been equally impressive. Gore boasts a 23-5 NRFI record this season, including 13-of-16 first innings pitched going scoreless at home. In nearly 100 plate appearances against the Braves' lineup, Gore has limited hitters to a .230 expected batting average.
Despite being one of the league’s best offenses, the Braves have had difficulty scoring in the first inning on the road, posting a 58–15 NRFI record, achieving the NRFI at a 79% clip.
A simple six outs should be rather easy for these two first inning studs.
Rays P Taj Bradley 6.0 Strikeouts — LESS
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
This season, Taj Bradley has surpassed six strikeouts in only 9 of his 21 starts, a 43% success rate. Majority of his success has come at home, but unfortunately today's game is on the road as he faces the Philadelphia Phillies.
Bradley has only managed more than six strikeouts on the road just once this season, dating back to the 2023 season, Bradley has only achieved this mark seven times in 22 road starts. To put the road struggles into perspective, Bradley has reached six or more strikeouts in nearly every single home start this season
The Phillies present a challenging matchup, as they rank in the top half of MLB against right-handed pitching, striking out just 21% of the time this season.
Bradley’s pitch count may also come into play today as Bradley threw 100 pitches in his last outing, and being this late into the season, the Rays may look to reduce his workload.
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Demon Picks: Nationals LF James Wood 1.5 Total Bases — MORE
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Taking a deeper dive into López's underlying metrics, despite his solid 2.04 ERA, he has struggled against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a 10% barrel rate, 44% hard-hit rate, and a 30% flyball rate across 280+ plate appearances.
These numbers have become increasingly worse over his last 50 plate appearances, where he has surrendered a 16% barrel rate, 60% hard-hit rate, and 40% fly-ball rate.
A player to watch in this matchup is Nationals rookie left-handed hitter James Wood. López throws his fastball 50% of the time to lefties, and Wood has excelled against right-handed fastballs with a 19% barrel rate, 95% hard-hit rate, and a 30% flyball rate in 50 plate appearances. Wood also has strong metrics against López's secondary pitch, the curveball, posting a 50% flyball rate and 25% barrel rate.
The youngster Wood should have himself a day in this spot.
Note: Demon picks add a payout boost to your lineup on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.
Goblin Pick: Mariners P George Kirby 0.5 Walks — MORE
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Seattle Mariners pitcher George Kirby has a walk projection line of 0.5, which has been a challenge for him late in the season. In 2024, Kirby issued at least one walk in 17 of his 29 starts, for nearly a 60% rate.
This walk trend has become more frequent recently, as Kirby has allowed a walk in 8 of his last 10 games. Facing the San Diego Padres today could be problematic, as they rank in the top 10 in walk percentage in MLB and are one of the hardest teams to strike out, posting just a 17% strikeout rate in 2024.
Hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Manny Machado are expected to make things difficult for Kirby on the mound today.
Note: Goblin picks reduce your payout on PrizePicks, as they are easier projections to hit.
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