MLB DFS Picks for PrizePicks Today: September 24, 2024

September 24, 2024

By: Shayne Trail

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele (35) in action during a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles, Thursday, July 11, 2024, in Baltimore. Cubs P Justin Steele is a top pick for PrizePicks MLB today. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

There’s a full slate of MLB games on tap today as the MLB Playoff race heats up. Here, you’ll find the top MLB DFS picks and player projections on PrizePicks for September 24, 2024.

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Whether you’re backing pitchers’s no run first inning projections or hitters to go yard, Tuesday's MLB matchups are stacked with opportunities. Below, we’ve got four picks to help you build your PrizePicks lineups.

PrizePicks MLB DFS Picks for September 24

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NRFI: Ryan Weathers + Bailey Ober 0.5 1st Inning Runs Allowed — LESS

Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
A sneaky No Run First Inning (NRFI) pick today — or under on 1st Inning Runs Allowed — is in the matchup between the Marlins and Twins. Ryan Weathers, the young lefty for the Marlins, has thrown 13 scoreless first innings in 14 starts this year, improving his overall NRFI record to 15-2 since last year.

On the other side, Twins pitcher Bailey Ober has posted a solid 18-10 NRFI record this season, and was 18-8 to the NRFI last year. Ober also has an impressive 10-3 NRFI split at home, where the Twins play today..

Adding to Ober’s advantage, the Miami Marlins have only scored a first-inning run in three of their last 10 games, and they’ve struggled to score early on the road this season, going scoreless in the first inning in 80% of their road games.

The Marlins' 60-15 NRFI record on the road marks them as one of the weakest first-inning hitting teams, which bodes well for Ober to keep them scoreless in the opening frame.

This matchup offers a favorable NRFI scenario, given both pitchers’ track records and the Marlins' slow starts offensively.

Cubs P Justin Steele 4.0 Strikeouts — MORE

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
The Chicago Cubs find themselves in a unique position as they face off against the Philadelphia Phillies, who just clinched the NL East last night and celebrated accordingly. With the Phillies potentially dealing with the aftereffects of their celebration or lacking motivation, the Cubs may have an edge.

Pitcher Justin Steele is projected to record four strikeouts today, a number he has consistently surpassed this season. In his 21 starts this year, Steele has thrown at least 59 pitches in 19 games, surpassing the four-strikeout mark in all of them, achieving a 90% success rate.

Looking at his last 30 starts dating back to last season, when Steele throws 60 or more pitches, he surpasses four strikeouts in 28 of 30 games, boosting his success rate to 93%.

Additionally, Steele's slider, which he throws 33% of the time, has been particularly effective against the Phillies, who collectively hold a 30% strikeout rate against the pitch this season. All signs point to Steele being well-positioned to dominate the Phillies' lineup today.

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Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr. 2.5 Total Bases — MORE (Demon Pick)

Time: 6:45 p.m. ET

Bobby Witt Jr. — in his pursuit of AL MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge — gets a prime matchup today against Nationals left-hander Mitchell Parker.

Parker has faced significant challenges against right-handed hitters this season. In his most recent sample of 85 plate appearances, Parker has allowed a 12% barrel rate, a 52% hard-hit percentage, and has a modest 20% swinging strike percentage.

Parker tends to rely heavily on his fastball, throwing it 46% of the time to righties. Witt has been feasting on lefty fastballs this year. He’s crushed them in 43 plate appearances this season, boasting a 40% flyball rate, a 50% hard-hit percentage, and a 15% barrel rate.

This matchup favors Witt as he continues to chase down the league’s best.

‍Note: Demon picks add a payout boost to your lineup on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.

Athletics OF Seth Brown 0.5 Total Bases — MORE (Goblin Pick)

Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Rangers pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has struggled against left-handed hitters this season. In his most recent 50 plate appearances against lefties, Eovaldi has allowed a 10% barrel rate, a 55% hard-hit percentage, and a concerning 34% flyball rate.

These struggles can be attributed in part to his reliance on the fastball, which he throws nearly 32% of the time to left-handed batters.

Seth Brown, the lefty slugger from the Oakland Athletics, has impressive metrics against right-handed fastballs, boasting a 13% barrel rate, a 57% hard-hit percentage, and a 36% flyball rate in 118 appearances.

Eovaldi’s second-most used pitch against lefties, the curveball, isn’t much safer, as Brown also posts solid numbers against it, with a 32% flyball rate, 53% hard-hit percentage, and a 10% barrel rate over 45 plate appearances.

Note: Goblin picks reduce your payout on PrizePicks, as they are easier projections to hit.‍

Lock in on PrizePicks MLB Today

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Pick more or less on two or more player projections, set your lineup, and lock in for today’s MLB DFS slate. Keep coming back to the Playbook for more insights on MLB DFS.