MLB DFS Picks Today for PrizePicks: September 4, 2024
It’s time to lock in for today’s MLB DFS action on PrizePicks. Dive into top MLB picks for September 4 and find the plays that will keep your lineup in the green.
Whether you’re backing pitcher strikeout projections or stacking hitters, today’s MLB matchups are stacked with opportunities. Below, we’ve got four picks to help you build your lineups.
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Phillies P Cristopher Sánchez 4.5 Strikeouts — LESS
Time: 3:07 p.m.
Breakout Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez comes into Wednesday with a rather tough matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays with a strikeout projection of 4.5.
The Blue Jays rank inside the top 15 in K%, striking out at a low rate this year. This season Cristopher Sanchez owns a below-average 19% K%. This weak strikeout percentage for Sanchez has resulted in him going 3-for-12 on the More this season on the road on this 4.5 strikeouts projection.
There has been a theme of Sanchez falling short on the road as he is just 7-for-25 on the More when on the road in his entire career when trying to obtain at least four strikeouts.
This matchup for Sanchez will be an uphill battle from the start when considering the Toronto Blue Jays are one of the best teams in baseball when it comes to attacking Sanchez’s weaknesses.
NRFI: Marcus Stroman + Nathan Eovaldi 0.5 1st Inning Runs Allowed — LESS
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Texas Rangers veteran pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has been a standout in the first inning this season, pitching a scoreless first inning in 18-of-24 starts. Even more impressive is his 12-2 no run first inning (NRFI) split when pitching at home, where he’s held opposing hitters to a .228 average through 202 plate appearances when facing them for the first time.
Meanwhile, the New York Yankees are also riding a hot NRFI streak, going 8-2 in their last 10 games when hitting in the first inning. On the road, the Yankees have managed a 61% success rate in avoiding a first-inning run, making this matchup a rather appealing NRFI candidate.
On the other side, Yankees’ newly acquired pitcher Marcus Stroman has also excelled in NRFI scenarios. Stroman has pitched 17 scoreless first innings in 26 starts, with an impressive 10-2 NRFI record when on the road. This season, Stroman has been much more effective away from home, sporting a 2.56 ERA on the road compared to a 4.86 ERA at home.
On the other side, the Texas Rangers have struggled offensively in the first inning at home, failing to score in 74% of those games, which plays into Stroman's advantage.
A quick, simple, six outs should be easy to achieve for these two pitchers given their respective NRFI stats.
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Demon Pick: Nationals 2B José Tena 1.5 Total Bases — MORE
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
In Washington, Nationals second baseman José Tena is poised for a strong day at the plate against Miami Marlins right-hander Valente Bellozo. Bellozo has struggled mightily in limited action this season, allowing a 12% barrel rate, a 51% hard-hit rate, and a troubling 36% fly ball rate over 180 plate appearances.
Tena, though young, has made the most of his opportunities, posting a 19% barrel rate and a 61% hard-hit rate, along with a 38% fly ball rate against fastballs. He’s also shown potential against changeups, which Bellozo throws 20% of the time, slashing them for a 67% hard-hit rate and a 33% barrel rate in a small sample size.
This matchup presents a prime opportunity for Tena to capitalize on a pitcher struggling with control and hard contact.
Note: Demon picks add a payout boost to your lineup on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.
Goblin Pick: Red Sox CF Jarren Duran 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs — MORE
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Jarren Duran has a tremendous positive matchup today against New York Mets Tylor Megill. This season MeGill has allowed a 10% barrel rate, 55% hard-hit%, and a very weak 25% whiff% against left-handed hitters in 120 appearances.
This season the 4-seam fastball has been MeGil’s go-to pitch, throwing the 4-seamer 51% of the time. Against the fastball, Duran owns a 16% barrel rate, 60% hard-hit percentage, and a 35% flyball rate in 135 plate appearances.
Duran is also on an extremely hot streak, tallying at least one hit in nine out of his last 10 games and 17 of his last 20 when on the road. Against the New York Mets, Duran has at least one hit in every game against the New York Mets since 2023, going a perfect 5-for-5.
This matchup for Duran has tremendous upside when considering all factors against Megill.
Note: Goblin picks reduce your payout on PrizePicks, as they are easier projections to hit.
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Pick more or less on two or more player projections on PrizePicks, set your lineup, and lock in for today’s MLB DFS slate. Keep coming back to the Playbook for more insights on MLB DFS.
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