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Saturday NFL Playoff Games Cheat Sheet & Best NFL DFS Picks

January 9, 2025

January 9, 2025

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey celebrates after McConkey's touchdown at SoFi Stadium on September 8, 2024 in Inglewood, California. Ladd McConkey is a top NFL DFS pick for the NFL Playoff Games on Saturday, January 11, 2025.

Harry How/Getty Images

We get two Saturday NFL Playoff games to kick-off Wild Card Weekend, with both games featuring AFC Championship hopefuls. The Saturday NFL games start with the Chargers vs. Texans at 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS, and Steelers vs. Ravens at 8 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

Below in the Saturday NFL Games Cheat Sheet, we’ve got the top NFL DFS picks for the two Saturday NFL Playoff games on PrizePicks, including a TD scorer pick to target in these games.

Check the PrizePicks NFL board now, lock in your picks, and get in on all of Wild Card Saturday NFL action. It’s the easiest way to cash in on your NFL knowledge, all the way through the 2025 Super Bowl.

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NFL DFS Cheat Sheet for Wild Card Saturday NFL Games

Find the top NFL DFS picks, player projections to look out for, and game predictions for Wild Card Saturday below in the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet.

🏈 Find our 2025 NFL Playoff Printable Bracket and Predictions here.

Chargers vs. Texans: Saturday Wild Card Game Preview

Time: 4:30 p.m. ET

Where to watch: CBS/Paramount

The Chargers feel like the least talked about team in the playoffs, but what they’ve accomplished this season is far from routine. For starters, Chargers QB Justin Herbert — despite having a huge question mark for his receiving core — put together a stellar campaign.

He etched himself into the history books with just three interceptions on over 500 passing attempts, just the second QB to ever do so behind Aaron Rodgers 2018 season, in which he threw just two interceptions. 

Their defense is no slouch either, boasting the least points allowed per game across the entire season. Herbert’s lack of mistakes, coupled with a defense that doesn’t give up much, makes them a tough out.

Playing host to the Chargers you have the Texans, who have looked far less consistent. They beat the Bills in Week 5, then lost to the lowly Titans in Week 12. Unfortunately for the Texans, they had what looked like one of the most dangerous WR rooms heading into the season, boasting Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell. Now all that remains is Collins, with Dell and Diggs both done for the season. 

For this reason, or potentially other variables, QB C.J Stroud has regressed in his sophomore campaign —  posting a QBR of 50.2, the lowest of all quarterbacks in the Playoffs. 

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey 71.5 Receiving Yards — More

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All season long, Chargers WR Ladd McConkey has gotten open with stellar route-running. Among all rookie WRs in this loaded class, he ranked first in average separation score, first in yards per route run, and first in yards per target. 

Among all receivers, McConkey finished his stellar rookie campaign ninth in yards per route run (2.38), and 19th in contested catch rate (61.9%). 

McConkey is also the first wide receiver since 1975 to be on a playoff team and have 25% or more of the team’s receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. 

The defenses he’s seen know the offense runs through him, and yet he’s only gotten better week after week, clearing this projection in seven of his last 10 outings. Across the last ten games, he’s averaged 88.4 yards/game, generally clearing this projection with ease.

Now, lined up against the Texans that have allowed a pass catcher to clear 71.5 receiving yards in 11-of-17 games this season and in a must-win spot, I don’t see any way the Chargers don’t continue to feed their alpha WR1 just as they have done all season long.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud 15.5 Fantasy Score — Less

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Texans QB C.J. Stroud’s Pass TD projection of 1.5 is a Demon projection, so we can’t take the less on that. We can however, take the next best thing if you believe his slump continues into the Playoffs — the Less on his Fantasy Score

In the 18 games Stroud appeared in, he had more than 15.5 Fantasy Score in 9-of-18 of them. More importantly however, the 18 games he played in with a pre-match Fantasy Score projection, he exceeded his projection just four times. Stroud finished the season with an average of 12.91 Fantasy Score a game on PrizePicks.

Stroud’s woes show up in a lot of metrics, but the most telling may be his adjusted EPA/Play. He ranks worse than every QB who maintained a starting job the entire season — even lower than the likes of Mac Jones, Joe Flacco, and Trevor Lawrence to name a few.

The Chargers — who allowed an average of 15.86 Fantasy Points a game to the QB position — shouldn’t have any problems keeping Stroud in his current form away from this number. The Texans are without their season long WR2 in Dell, and without their season long WR3 in Diggs. So if the Chargers can just shut down Nico Collins, it could be another rough outing for Stroud.

Kickers Cameron Dicker + Ka’imi Fairbairn 127.5 FG Yards (Combo) — More

Saturday NFL Playoff Games Cheat Sheet & Best NFL DFS Picks for PrizePicks

On the season, Texans K Ka’imi Fairbairn has made 13 FGs over 50 yards (third-best in the NFL) on 16 attempts. Chargers K Cameron Dicker has made 9 FGs over 50 yards (fifth-best in the NFL) on 11 attempts. Dicker and Fairbairn are currently tied with each other at third for most field goals attempted in the league at 42. 

Dicker is third in FGs made (39), while Fairbairn is fifth in FGs made (36). 

While we could take their combo of More than 3.5 FG Made, we already established both teams trust their kicker to blast from 50+. Our two kickers in question have made a combined 75 field goals this season, or a combined average of 4.16 a game — the yards here seem a slightly better play given their range. 

There is absolutely a world in which these kickers clear their combined FG yards, their FG made, and their longest FG at 48.5 — but with 127.5, all we need is three above an average of 42.5 yards. Lucky for us, Dickers' most occurring range this season was 40-49, whereas Fairbairn’s was 50+.

I haven’t seen a better spot all season long to take two of the best kickers in the NFL who boot them at great volume, and with league leading range in a must win game for both teams in this stat category on the NFL board.

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Steelers vs. Ravens: Saturday Wild Card Game Preview

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Where to watch: Prime Video

It seems everyone has counted the Steelers out before the match has even begun. They are the biggest underdog of the Wild Card round, and the Ravens are many people's favorite to survive the AFC side of the bracket

All that to be said, the Steelers absolutely have a fighting chance, seen via their record this season against playoff teams is 4-3. They also beat the Ravens earlier in the season, albeit at home, while this game will be played in Baltimore. The Steelers were also 8-2 at that point — a far cry from their current record of 10-7.

The Ravens on the other hand are as scary as ever, led by their two-man charge of MVP frontrunner QB Lamar Jackson and newly crowned Ravens single-season TD record holder RB Derrick Henry. 

If the Steelers look to pull off the upset, the defense led by pass-rusher T.J. Watt will have to be at its best — and QB Russell Wilson will have to play better than he has down the stretch, as the Steelers have lost four-straight in part to his lack of scoring. 

TD Scorer Prediction: Ravens TE Mark Andrews (Demon)

Saturday NFL Playoff Games Cheat Sheet & Best NFL DFS Picks for PrizePicks

Across the entirety of the season there is not a single player, TE, WR, or RB with more touchdowns thrown to him in the red zone (within 20 yards of the endzone) than Ravens TE Mark Andrews. Couple that with QB Lamar Jackson who has thrown a league-leading 31 Passing TDs in the red zone, and this is my favorite TD scorer projection of the weekend.

Now, against the Steelers — who he scored a TD against a few weeks ago — we can take him as a Demon projection to boost our payout. In weeks following Andrews’ slow start (weeks 1-5), Andrews has posted a TD in 10 of 12, despite the fact that in three of those touchdown games Andrews received just two total targets.

The Steelers have looked extra vulnerable through the air of late, with them surrendering an average of 2.3 Pass TDs a game across their last three. MVP frontrunner Lamar has thrown an average of 2.4 Passing TDs a game with 1.8 Passing TDs a game coming from action inside the redzone, targeting Andrews on 51.7% of those once inside the 20. If a pass catcher scores for the Ravens this weekend, it’s most likely to be Andrews, and if a pass catcher scores from inside the 20 this weekend, it’s far more likely to be Andrews. I see the veteran continuing to outpace every pass catcher in his red zone productivity this weekend.

Note: Demon picks add a payout boost to your lineup on PrizePicks, as they are more difficult projections to hit.

Steelers RB Jaylen Warren 20.5 Receiving Yards — More

Saturday NFL Playoff Games Cheat Sheet & Best NFL DFS Picks for PrizePicks

There have been some serious questions about the Steelers use of personnel both in general and situationally, but regardless, RB Jaylen Warren has been a bright spot when his number is called. 

Across the entirety of the season, Warren has averaged 20.6 receiving yards per game, and in both of his matchups against the Ravens this season, he posted 27 receiving yards and 44 receiving yards, respectively. With his better outing being in a trailing script, it may suggest that it does not matter the outcome of the game — Warren should get his looks. 

In an interview a few days prior to the matchup, Warren stated that drawing the Ravens was his “personal preference”, and it’s easy to see why. As a back who excels in the passing game, the Ravens allow the third-most receiving yards a game to running backs at 39.6 yards/game. 

13 of the 17 games the Ravens have played have seen an opposing back go for 19+ receiving yards, and 11-of-17 have seen a back go for 20+.

I see the Steelers learning from the game tape in their last two matchups and leaning on what worked: Warren in the passing game.

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Build Your NFL Playoffs Saturday Lineup on PrizePicks

Whether you’re going big with a Demon pick or staying safe with the Goblins in the Saturday Wild Card NFL games, there’s no better way to add to the excitement of Saturday Football's double header than building your ideal PrizePicks Lineup

With Wild Card action all Saturday and Sunday on the NFL Playoffs schedule, you can cash in on your NFL knowledge all weekend long.

PrizePicks is the easiest way to get real money action on the Saturday football. Just pick more or less on two or more player projections, set your lineup, and lock in for Saturday Football on Wild Card weekend. 

Keep coming back to the Playbook for more NFL DFS as we move towards the playoffs.

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