NFL Week 1 Cheat Sheet for PrizePicks & DFS
It’s time to lock in for the Week 1 NFL DFS action on PrizePicks. Dig into the first Sunday slate with our top picks on the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet and find the plays that will keep your lineup in the green.
With players on new teams and so many unknowns yet to be discovered, the Week 1 NFL matchups are stacked with opportunities. Below, we’ve got four picks to help you build your lineups and matchups to exploit, including one pick for Friday Night Football and a projection that's 99 percent discounted on PrizePicks.
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Packers QB Jordan Love 257.5 Passing Yards— LESS
Note: Love plays in the Friday Night Football game. Full preview here.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love has faced consistent challenges when his projected passing yards are set at this level. In 2023, Love surpassed this benchmark only 42% of the time, reflecting an ongoing struggle to reach that level of production.
A deeper analysis reveals even more concerning trends in specific game environments. In primetime matchups throughout his NFL career, Love has only surpassed the 257.5 yard mark once, barely edging past it with only 267 passing yards. His road game performances tell a similar story, with Love surpassing 257.5 passing yards in just 21% of his away games.
While the Eagles defense ranked in the bottom half of the NFL last season in passing yards allowed per game at 252.7 yards.They've made some key improvements heading into the 2024 season.
They brought back safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, a crucial piece of their Super Bowl run, used a first-round pick on standout cornerback Quinyon Mitchell from Toledo, and welcomed back Isaiah Rodgers after a one-year suspension. With these big additions to their secondary, the Eagles’ defense is expected to be far improved, likely presenting significant challenges for Love in the primetime down in Brazil.
New York Giants QB Daniel Jones 216.5 Passing Yards — LESS
Similarly, New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has failed to meet expectations over the past few seasons. When his passing yardage projection is set at 217, the results have been underwhelming. In 2023, Jones only surpassed that total once, a meager 17% success rate. Looking at his last 20 games, Jones has failed to pass the 217 yard mark in 15 of those games, amounting to just a 25% success rate. At home since the 2021 season, Jones has only surpassed 216.5 passing yards in four games, which translates to a rather unimpressive 24% success rate.
Adding to the challenge, the Minnesota Vikings' offseason acquisition of veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore strengthens their secondary. Last season, Gilmore allowed only an 83 passer rating when targeted over more than 500+ coverage snaps, solidifying his reputation as a shutdown corner.
The hype around Giants first round pick Malik Nabers has overshadowed the poor performance Jones displayed in the preseason, throwing multiple picks against back-ups.
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Tennessee Titans RB Tony Pollard 42.5 Rushing Yards — MORE
Turning to the running game, Tony Pollard of the Tennessee Titans, acquired in the offseason, has consistently outperformed expectations. When his rushing yardage projection is set at 44.5, Pollard has hit this mark in 15 of his last 18 games, an impressive 83% success rate.
Toward the end of the 2023 season, Pollard was nearly unstoppable, surpassing 44.5 rushing yards in nine of his last 10 games. Over a broader sample of 20 games, when Pollard plays at least 25 snaps, he has reached this benchmark in 16 of those games.
This spells trouble for the Chicago Bears, whose front seven remains as a weakness. Defensive tackle Gervon Dexter ranked 125th out of 137 qualifying linemen last season in PFF grade, while middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds struggled against the run, ranking 67th out of 84 linebackers. Pollard’s explosive potential is primed to exploit this defense after collecting a big paycheck in the offseason.
Chicago Bears WR Keenan Allen 4.5 Receptions — MORE
Newly-acquired Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen is expected to become a go-to target for rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, thanks to Allen's experience and reliability as a veteran presence. This dynamic is likely to result in a high volume of targets for Allen, especially considering his proven ability to exceed expectations in receptions.
When Allen’s projected receptions are set at 4.5, he has consistently outperformed it. Last season, Allen surpassed this mark in 11 of the 13 games he played, demonstrating a strong 85% success rate. Looking at a larger sample, Allen has eclipsed 4.5 receptions in 18 of his last 20 games, a remarkable 90% success rate.
His consistency is further highlighted in home games dating back to 2021, where he has gone over 4.5 receptions in 16-of-21 contests, translating to a solid 76% success rate.
With two very talented receivers — DJ Moore and first-round pick Rome Odunze — lining up alongside him, Allen will likely benefit from less defensive focus. Opposing teams will have to spread their defensive efforts, potentially giving Allen more opportunities to make plays.
Given his track record, Allen should be a key player in the Bears' passing game, with a strong likelihood of continuing to exceed his reception projections. Pair Allen’s receptions with the Caleb Williams free square on PrizePicks — if Williams throws for one yard, he’ll cash his projection.
Football is Back: Lock in for Week 1 DFS
As Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off, we hope the Cheat Sheet helps you build your winning lineups this week on PrizePicks. The Week 1 slate of games are chock full of opportunities to capitalize on, and there’s no better way to get in on the action than with PrizePicks..
Lock in your picks and get ready for the first Sunday sweat of the NFL season.
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